Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Additionally, we will be rounding up/down the new "penny breakage" in our stats accordingly, as we do all our numbers by hand, and do we really need to add to our voluminous workload ! Note that we currently have had TWENTY profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -On a Summer Day | 2nd -Fire Agate | 3rd -Just One More |
#1 ON A SUMMER DAY was an even fourth place finisher in this race 22 days in the rear, and although she has a propensity for being a bit of an in and outer, today is just her second start at that level, and slides in five slots while picking up a decent pilot. #2 FIRE AGATE had no excuse for the poor performance in the most recent, but did well just before that, and it's encouraging to see Joel get on. #11 JUST ONE MORE appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and is an obvious threat to go all the way.
| Race 2 | 1st -Right to Win | 2nd -Hedge the Risk | 3rd -Life and Light |
#4 RIGHT TO WIN was denied the hat trick last time out, but it was not for a lack of effort, as this lightly raised gray guy came along nicely to complete the triple that day. Slight edge once again in a race with only one first draft elimination. #2 HEDGE THE RISK got up late in the game with an inside trip against conditional platers right here on the 13th of September, and is reunited with a pilot today that he just won with. Could obviously do with a bit of pace to cut into. #7 LIFE AND LIGHT showed some good dash last time out, when spicing up the exacta to the tune of 26-1, and only the snobs will dismiss this one because of the connections.
| Race 3 | 1st -Sergeant Capps | 2nd -Metatron | 3rd -Kavanaugh |
#4 SERGEANT CAPPS has completed the exacta in three of his last four starts on the sandy stuff, while falling short by less than two lengths the other time. While we're spotting this one upstairs, it's with a good deal of trepidation because of the Nordic outfit, and we reserve the right to amend our selections once the odds come out. #2 METATRON returned off of 15 month hibernation to close out the triple at this level last out, and could obviously move forward off of that with said affair under his girthstrap. #5 KAVANAUGH is confidently hiked up the ladder after a solid placing in his first off the claim deal, and cuts back from two turns to one for the first time.
| Race 4 | 1st -Out On Bail | 2nd -No Evidence | 3rd -Cairo Caper |
#5 OUT ON BAIL is the clear class of this grouping, and lost by just a length in a Grade 1 event the only time he was in his second off the bench spot. Will likely take some pounding at the windows, but it's hard to look past the four exacta finishes from as many starts on firm ground. #8 NO EVIDENCE makes his third start off the bench this afternoon, and the only other time he did that, a well clear runnerup finish was the end result. Sensible, given the fact that he has never missed the board. #9 CAIRO CAPER rounds out the top three.
| Race 5 | 1st -Union Express | 2nd -Ready Set Twirl | 3rd -Mission Hill |
#5 UNION EXPRESS often leaves himself with too much to do, but he outruns his odds more often than not, and was only a length and change behind the leader turning for home in the most recent. Mild choice in a difficult race to decipher. #6 READY SET TWIRL spiced up the triple in a big way when showing at 35-1 the only time he went from 1X to 2X and could fare even better today with the blinker removal. #1 MISSION HILL went coast to coast like butter and toast in procuring the sheepskin up in Togatown at the end of August, and we see no reason to exclude off of that.
| Race 6 | 1st -Chocolatechocolate | 2nd - Speed of Sound | 3rd -Take Me to Londyn |
#1 CHOCOLATECHOCOLATE was extremely sweet for her backers when grinding out a win at odds on right here 3 weeks ago, and did such despite getting smacked around a bit at the onset. The lone returnee from that affair got the job done when next in action, improving in the BSF department by 9.3%, and has this miss has done nothing but improve over her last quintet, we see a repeat as being quite feasible. #6 SPEED OF SOUND was a well beaten but nicely clear runnerup finisher the only time she set her tootsies on the main, and the pedigree tells us that she could do even better second time around. #4 TAKE ME TO LONDYN hasn't been seen since National Hangover Day, but returns at a level yet seen, & has the miracle drug administered for the first time.
| Race 7 | 1st -Dark Vector | 2nd -Dialbolico | 3rd -Wajda |
#5 DARK VECTOR returned off of more than a calendar and a half sabbatical to close out the tri at this level in two starts, and as his second best speed figaro came in a third of the bench engagement, we could see this one potentially sitting on a solid performance. #8 DIALBOLICO outperformed his expectations when finishing directly ahead of the above in their recent encounter, and while a bounce is it was possible off a lifetime best numbah, he's facing no world beaters here, so we'll chunk in. #6 WAJDA has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but lone win has come @ today's distance of ground, and although we'll be including, it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups.
| Race 8 | 1st -Nic's Style | 2nd -Stonewall Star | 3rd -The Big Calhoun |
#5 NIC'S STYLE hasn't been in action since early March, but is two for two off an absence, and as a matter of fact is but one placing away from having a perfect eight of eight record. Classy sort looking good if sound and fully cranked up. #6 STONEWALL STAR hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but has done admirably often L/O, and boy oh boy does that five for nine local ledger pop off the page. #1 THE BIG CALHOUN has gotten the job done in three of her last five outings, and has that same mark beneath the seagulls.
| Race 9 | 1st -Flat On | 2nd -Funny Uncle | 3rd -First of His Name |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 FLAT ON didn't show much in the turf deal, but picked up the lion's share the only time he was entered for this price, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, Rudy Rod is four of six when going green to brown and cutting back his stock off of absences of 30-90 days; the winners came back $5 X 2 and $8 X 2. #4 FUNNY UNCLE makes his third start off the bench, and has done okay off of that type of break in the past. #7 FIRST OF HIS NAME hasn't faced the starter since being eased up in Saratoga, and while he deserves a look see at his lowest level yet, fitness is obviously the question.
Aqueduct ( Current ): 43-178( $297.30 )Beatable Favorites: 4-5( 80% )Favorite's Win %: 51-178( 28.7% ) ( As of Thursday morning )
Saratoga ( Final ): 86-420( $669 )Beatable Favorites: 9-25 ( 36% ) Favorite's Win %: 156-420 ( 37.1% )
Saratoga ( Final ): 10-44 ( $88.10 )Beatable Favorites: 0-5 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 13-44 ( 29.5% )
Aqueduct ( Final ): 64-263( $391 )Beatable Favorites: 2-6 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 103-263 ( 39.6% )
Bel @Saratoga ( Final ): 8-59 ( $71.40 )Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 23-59 ( 39% )
Aqueduct ( Final ): 35-140 ( $200.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-6 ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 64-140 ( 45.7% )
Aqueduct ( Final ): 90-388( $685.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-18( 32.5% ) Favorite's Win % : 151-388( 38.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-25 (All Final):4709-22871 ($38,484.70) +/-: -15.8% against a 16.2% takeout
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 501-1872( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 8768-23421( 37.4% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4739-23506 ( $39,498.10 ) +/-: -16% against a 16.5% takeout
