Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Additionally, we will be rounding up/down the new "penny breakage" in our stats accordingly, as we do all our numbers by hand, and do we really need to add to our voluminous workload ! Note that we currently have had TWENTY profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Top Player | 2nd -Royal Riddle | 3rd -Hurricane Kaz |
#4 TOP PLAYER showed marked improvement from his first start to the next, and that's even factoring in that he stumbled a bit at the onset of the most recent. He has the highest Tomlinson figure in the field, so there is obviously room for some improvement, and looks to be a major player here. #2 ROYAL RIDDLE ( Cross entered on Thursday, so check the changes. ) was a gamely runnerup finisher when getting his working papers two fortnights back, and has blinkers added today off of that solid effort, something that we consider to be a confident move by a trainer. Should be know worse than third for all of you show grinders out there. #3 HURRICANE KAZ can perk up with the blinker edition after a clumsy beginning to the debut.
| Race 2 | 1st -Ten Cent Town | 2nd -Riyadh Moon | 3rd-Local Barrio |
#3 TEN CENT TOWN is an extremely consistent sort on the whole, and that includes decent marks at this trip and over this trip. Gellding is entered for substantially less than the price claimed from two back, and would need a win for the barn to show the smallest of profits on the whole transaction, should another claim ensue. #2 RIYADH MOON has been kept in jail since the 8/14 snag, and although this is a tougher spot than that day's win, we like the 2 for 3 mark on a glib surface. #5 LOCAL ABARRIO starts for his 4th consecutive different trainer, but it's hard to argue with the 18 exacta finishes from 29 starts.
| Race 3 | 1st -True Legend | 2nd -Chummers | 3rd -Baby Meanie |
| Race 4 | 1st -Major Dude | 2nd -Horsepower | 3rd -Sand Pipes |
Soon to be six year old 'horse', #2 MAJOR DUDE ( "Hey dude, you hang on to those 'major' parts for as long as you can! ) has a solid amount of back class, while having done well in his only start on this course. Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 HORSEPOWER has been 1-2 in 7 of 10 sod starts to date, and what the hell is wrong with that ? #3 SAND PIPES shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and although he's in his deepest waters yet, we see that this jockey/trainer combination have won their last three in tandem $54, $4 and $5, and are on a streak of 9:5-3-1 together. Definitely include.
| Race 5 | 1st -Remember the Chief | 2nd -Noguchi | 3rd -Seeker's Hope |
#1 REMEMBER THE CHIEF returned off a bit of a freshening to outrun his offering by a couple of placings right here, and has blinkers reaffixed for today's second start off the bench, a scenario in which he improved from a BSF standpoint by 20% the only time attempting such. Mild choice. #5 NOGUCHI has rolled three straight fours to begin his working life, and while that may be good in Vegas, here it ended up having this $300,000 auction purchase claimed for 1/6th of that last time out. Fellow drops in class once again, so caveat emptor. #3 SEEKER'S HOPE comes in off of back to back career best dirt efforts, and can't fault those taking a favorable view.
| Race 6 | 1st -Palace Boss | 2nd -Russian Realm | 3rd -Shipsational |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 PALACE BOSS has been on a nice little roll since April 5th, and we like that it's come at two different locales, while going 1X or 2X. Fella does well when first to load, and we see no reason for him to be out of the money, here. #6 RUSSIAN REALM lost by two lengths in each of his starts off of a respite, and best work has come at today's dx.. #3 SHIPSATIONAL is confidently hiked up in class in his first start off the snag, and has cashed a fair amount of checks beneath today's pilot.
| Race 7 | 1st -Cable Ready | 2nd -Sounds Like a Plan | 3rd -Leon Blue |
This troika will do the trick for all our rolling bets. #3 CABLE READY has outran his parimutual offering quite nicely in the last pair, completing the triple both times. Grey guy gets an upgrade in the saddle today, and we wouldn't be surprised to see this one closer to the pace with a nine post position improvement off the most recent. #2 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN has the ability to send or rate just a bit, and best work has come at this dist., and in the zip code. #8 LEON BLUE has enough speed to land a share. ( We reserve the right to amend our selections once the odds come out. )
| Race 8 | 1st -Laughing Boy | 2nd -He's Got This | 3rd -Good Luck Chuck |
#1 LAUGHING BOY is a 7 year old critter who still has all his own parts, and owns some things to like here. First of all, he slides in five slots off of a mere length defeat at this level in a race claimed from 23 days in the rear, and totes along some decent back class as well. Sensible selection. #8 HE'S GOT THIS has always been a popular item at the claim box, and with good cause as he has a penchant for picking up check after check. Keeping beneath despite today's drop in class because of the poor mark at today's distance of ground. #6 GOOD LUCK CHUCK looks to get three in a row today, and given the speed figures earned in the last duet, we see it as quite doable.
| Race 9 | 1st -Waitlist | 2nd -Get a Job | 3rd -Buttah |
#2 WAITLIST was a going away victor the last time he cut back from two turns to one, and picks up a pilot this afternoon who has done some decent work for this outfit. Mild choice in a difficult race to decipher. #1 GET A JOB has been purchased in both starts when made available for such, and as yet to miss the board in any start beneath the seagulls. Recognize the wire job the only time he was first to load. #6 BUTTAH bested a slightly softer grouping when last in action on the 12th of September, and given his sharp mark at the trip, we see no reason to dismiss. NOTE: #3 IS NOW OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 10 | 1st -Me Governor | 2nd -Love Cervere | 3rd -Flat Out Time |
#4 ME GOVERNOR has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but owns a win and a placing when returning off a break in the action, and sui generis of that, got the job done in her only start in Queens, which also happened to be her only attempt at today's trip. #2 LOVE CERVERE has never missed the money in any dash, while showing an ability to lay close to the pace or come from out of the clouds. Gal digs it here as well. #3 FLAT OUT TIME is decently bred for today's initial start on the verde, and we wouldn't be surprised to see an honest performance.
| Race 11 | 1st -Mo Kreesa | 2nd -Annexperience | 3rd -El De Larry |
While we initially came up with three speedsters for our selections, we decided to think out of the box a bit and choose one that we felt could sit just behind them and pick up the pieces should a pace dual develop. In that regards, #1 MO KREESA has a win and two showings from his quartet of turf routes, and draws snugly in what just may develop to being a perfect pocket trip. #7 ANNEXPERIENCE was a dead game & decently clear runnerup in a near identical deal last out, and he's only tossed in one clunker in his career. #5 EL DE LARRY has been in pretty good form for the last ten months, and his best efforts have come on the green stuff. NOTE: DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct ( Current ): 41-167( $289 )Beatable Favorites: 4-5( 80% )Favorite's Win %: 47-167 ( 21.1% ) ( As of Saturday morning )
Saratoga ( Final ): 86-420( $669 )Beatable Favorites: 9-25 ( 36% ) Favorite's Win %: 156-420 ( 37.1% )
Saratoga ( Final ): 10-44 ( $88.10 )Beatable Favorites: 0-5 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 13-44 ( 29.5% )
Aqueduct ( Final ): 64-263( $391 )Beatable Favorites: 2-6 ( 33.3% )Favorite's Win %: 103-263 ( 39.6% )
Bel @Saratoga ( Final ): 8-59 ( $71.40 )Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 23-59 ( 39% )
Aqueduct ( Final ): 35-140 ( $200.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-6 ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 64-140 ( 45.7% )
Aqueduct ( Final ): 90-388( $685.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-18( 32.5% ) Favorite's Win % : 151-388( 38.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-25 (All Final):4709-22871 ($38,484.70) +/-: -15.8% against a 16.2% takeout
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 501-1872( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 8768-23421( 37.4% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4739-23506 ( $39,498.10 ) +/-: -16% against a 16.5% takeout
