3/29 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

A bit snakebite yesterday ( 8:1-3-3 ), but we're still besting the takeout on the stand with two days to go, while a head of the grain in our "Beatable Favorites" department.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.  Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 SHORT SHIFT has been a popular item at the claim box of late, as this miss has had to leave a forwarding address after 3 of her last 5 treks to the front side. Gal sheds two lbs and moves in just as many slots off the recent wirejob, and barn enlists the services of a pilot that they have had good fortune with. Should be no worse than third for all your show grinders out there. #5 FIRST CLASS CAT has closed out the exacta in three of her last four outings, and the 3 for 10 mark at today is distance of ground stands out quite favorably against her overage record otherwise. #3 SPLASHY didn't show a whole heck of a lot in the most recent, but got smacked around the onset, and rates a shot if able to get back to the penultimate try.

#4 ADELEKE has made every call a winning one in her last quintet, and sheds 80 oz. of the recent tally, while being reunited with a pilot who was astride for four of those tallies. How could we live with ourselves if we didn't use a horse like this upstairs? #1 SAVE US MELANIA has been a bit of an in and outer over her last quartet, but completed the triple the only time she was in a third of the bench engagement, and has done exactly that in both starts when first to load. Looks to be the main threat to the above. #3 I'M BUZZY switches from a bug to a journeyman off the recent placing, and this game 6YO has done a lot of good stuff right here in Ozone Park.

#3 COLD AS HELL is a game gray gelding who has been a check earning fool throughout his working life, and is still possessing plenty of speed at the mature age of 7. Barn has been a bit chilly on the stand, but the speed figure off the last tells us this one should be no worse than third for all of you show players out there, and while you should know him early, be sure to have the Pepto handy late. #1 LIBERTE DE BAYEAUX has hit the board in every single dirt start to date, and trainer legs up Sanchez today, who has historically done nice work for him. Should be flanking our top choice early on. #9 LATTA earned a career best Beyer in his comebacker, but we are foreseeing a bit of a regression today. That being said, whatever he posts should still be enough to land a share.  NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 5 & 7 WILL BE OUR 2ND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

#5 MAKE ME gets his working papers this afternoon for an underrated trainer in David Duggan, who is having himself a fantastic stand heading into closing weekend, & this Chestnut chap is displaying a best of 47 bullet breeze for today's overture. That workout was more than 3/5th's of a second better than anybody else that day, and it happened to come from the gate, which usually means the time will be a bit slower. Four upstairs members of the family tree got the job done in their first start on a fast track, and we are banking on Rivera looking to catch a flyer with this one out of the gate to get a jump on our secondary selection. #1 ONE NINE HUNDRED will take all kinds of money here, and justifiable so, as he is a "Double Beyer speed figure" animal, which means that both of his numerous to date exceed anything that any other critter in the race has posted. The only reason we are keeping this one beneath, is the fact that he was a bit tardy to the party at the onset in each affair, and we are willing to take a stand against an animal such as that who is going off at odds on. #3 GYPSY DREAMING ( uncoupled entrymate w/our top choice ) gave his backers a bit of a thrill when opening up a daylight lead turning for home on the 1st of the month, but had to settle for being a well clear runnerup that day at 13-1. As he nearly doubled the speed figure from his prior dirt deal that afternoon, we'd be Silly McGilly to exclude.

#1 MO RHODES was a game running up finisher versus a slightly weaker grouping last time out, and goes from a bug to a vet today. Slight edge. #5 BOLD ENDEAVOR shoots for the hat trick today, and it's a shame that a horse like this will be banned from the circuit at the end of the year, as he is still getting it done --and doing it at solid levels, in a professional manner. #4 STRAPPED is 4 of 11 at the Big A, and while he finished well clear of our top choice in their recent encounter, we are going to leave beneath, as he is 0-5 when making his first start of a lifetime best figaro.  NOTE: AS OF 11:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

We're hoping the #12 may "SHOCK" the world here in the middle race on the card, as this miss has been a bit tardy to the party in both starts to date, and has been decently backed in both of those events. We have seen scenarios where a horse takes some money in the first couple of starts before doing poorly, and then rebounds with a surprising effort at a big time offering. April foal disappeared off the work tab for nearly three months after the troubled bow, and now has the miracle drug administered for her first start in a new barn. She goes from the middle of the gate load, to being the last critter put into the starting apparatus, and that should definitely help from getting squeezed at the onset. There ain't much here to get the heart thumping, so we have no qualms with swinging away. #7 SWEET LILAC has hit the board in both starts on a good surface, with one of those being a 61-1 placing in an identical spot. Can't fault those taking a favorable view. #3 AWESOME ROBERTA has cashed a handful of checks along the way, and could improve off the poor performance w/ today's blinker removal.

#5 LA BANQUERA crushes. #2 VEGAS WEEKEND put forth an honest showing versus a someone softer group a baker's dozen days ago, and picks up Carol Cedeno, who we've always loved throughout the years, as we have never called her out for not giving an honest effort. It's worth noting that she blew up the tote board in Sunday's nightcap with a triple digit winner. Could spice things up beneath. #3 MAGGIE T bested the above in their recent encounter, and we always like when a runner sheds some tonnage off a tally.  NOTE: AS OF 11:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#1 MOTEL PATEL gets an upgrade in the training department for today's primary engagement in the Big Apple, and draws the rail for the first time, which is fine by us as, he's displayed some early zip in most of his starts to date. #5 MERICA'S BACK showed marked improvement from the lidlifter to the followup, when finishing a decently clear running up. Barn enlists the services of a rider they've had excellent success with, and this one looks live. #6 ALZERO didn't show diddly poo first time out, but the 395 Tomlinson tells us there's some room for improvement, and we'll chunk in.

#4 QUICK HAMMER has gotten the job done in three of his last four when the jockey has stayed aboard, which stands out quite favorably against his 2 for 15 mark in all the prior engagements. A wire job is well within reach once again, and they will have to grab him by the tail to get the glory. #1 HIGH TIDE was claimed out of a winning effort versus 15K foes right here on the second of the month, and the new bossman likely had today's race in mind, what with its elevated purse and all. This one keeps the pre-purchase pilot, which is something we always like to see, but will need to find a seam late from today's inside draw. #3 UNCLE GEORGE aims for the hat trick today, and while it is feasible, keep in mind his 0-6 mark in second off the bench jamborees. Leaving beneath because of such.

#11 SUPREME LAW played the fade when setting most of the fractions down in Virginia a fortnight back, but cuts back to one turn today, and deserves a chance to make amends. #2 LEGAL DEAL got up late in the game to best what we would consider to be a tougher grouping right here last week, and while we'll be using, he would obviously be aided by a quick ace ahead of him. You simply have to love and the declining mark of 54:14-10-5. #9 GIROOVIN has picked up the lion's share and three of his last four, and by far, his best work has come beneath the seagulls. This one has a similar running style has our secondary selection, so we'll keep him beneath that one right today.

As we analyzed this race at 10:10 in the evening, we are going to side with the #10 SUNSHINE LILY.This New York bred began her working life down in Oldsmar three weeks ago, and split the field at 59-1 in losing by a bit more than four lengths that day. She showed a bit of a baby "z" pattern in doing such, and we feel that she is going to be overlooked a tad given the connections. The 408 Tommy only adds to the allure. #11 JULITA was a bit tardy to the party when breaking from a disadvantageous slot in the January 10th overture, but completed the triple behind willful mama ( "Mama....mahhhma." ) that afternoon, and now has blinks added for today's return engagement while going inside to outside. #2 TRULLI MAGIC looks like a sensible equine to toss into Dennis' hopper.

Aqueduct : 86-377( $657 )   Beatable Favorites: 5-18( 32.5% )  Favorite's Win % : 144-377( 38.2% )( As of Saturday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout