We head into Closing Week besting the takeout rate for the meet, as well as being ahead of the grain with our 'Beatable Favorites".
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Looking for Ginny | 2nd -Game Like Reyanna | 3rd -Farm House |
#2 LOOKING FOR GINNY is beginning to give the impression of being a professional maiden, but it's hard to ignore the nine superfecta finishes from 11 starts on the main, as well as a slight upgrade in the jockey department this afternoon. Meek selection. #6 GAME LIKE REYANA has hit the board both times she's been made available for purchase, and draws the outside for the first time. Not hopeless in this spot. #4 FARM HOUSE has posted solid efforts in both heats thus far, but going two turns the entirely different deal, and the 208 Tomlinson scares us enough that we are going to keep her beneath.
| Race 2 | 1st --Irish Jackson | 2nd -Dashing Della | 3rd -La Grotte |
#2 IRISH JACKSON has always been a fragile sort, as this six year old mare has made just nine starts to date. The good news tho, is that she has done okay off of a break in the action while having partaken in the superfecta and all her starts but one. Slight edge in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 DASHING DELLA is hiked up in class after finishing a well beaten runner-up at 18-1 last time out, and this is another one who has cashed a fair amount of checks recently. #4 LA GROTTE found the line first the last time she was entered for this price, and her best work has come right here beneath the seagulls. NOTE: DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-2-1.
| Race 3 | 1st -Ghostly Girl | 2nd -Jolly Miss Jill | 3rd -Balenciaga Betty |
#4 GHOSTLY GIRL was an honest enough third place finisher in this race on the 7th of the month, and slides in three slots off of that performance. Meek selection in a race that's difficult to decipher. #3 JOLLY MISS JILL has only bested one in her last pair, but we like to go back three starts to find something positive, and the 1/5 try was honest enough to merit inclusion. #2 BALENCIAGA BETTY completed the exacta the only time she was in a second off the bench engagement, and breaks from the inside for the first time on a track labeled FST.
| Race 4 | 1st -Toned Up | 2nd -Mursal | 3rd -Luna Moth |
#5 TONED UP has been a part of the triple in each affair this annum, and while we will be using up top, it is with mucho trepidation, has the local 21:0-5-5 record gives us a touch of heartburn. #1 MURSAL has been in the HPP ( Horsewitness Protection Program ) since being a snagged more than one full calendar ago, and is claim protected for today's comebacker, as the barn enlists the services of a jockey who has done good things for them. Obvious factor if sound and fully cranked up. #4 LUNA MOTH completes the only three runners will be using here, based on the decent speed figure against tougher two starts back when going extremely wide. Silvera will make that same mistake again, and we'd like to see this one get a snug trip.
| Race 5 | 1st -Maxaluna | 2nd -I am Rue | 3rd -Helen's Revenge |
#1 MAXALUNA got the job done at first asking right here 33 days in the rear, and did such despite smacking into the starting apparatus at the beginning. The 413 Tommy tells us that the result that day likely wasn't an aberration, and this miss slides in five post positions off of that performance. #5 I AM RUE hasn't been seen since placing in his first start against winners back in January, and makes sense if able to get back to the # garnered that day. #7 HELEN'S REVENGE comes in off a decent third place finish right here, and as she's not as well bred for the wet stuff as the dry stuff, we would expect a little bit of improvement in the speed figure area from that day.
| Race 6 | 1st -Lem Me Drink | 2nd -Focus Pocus | 3rd -To Be Loved By You |
#8 LEM ME DRINK has always been a bit of a fringe player, but showed a baby "Z" pattern when placing in the most recent, and is an unenthusiastic choice in this spot. #5 FOCUS POCUS has finished in the back half of the pack in her last troika, but is at depths yet seen, and her only win came at this trip and over the strip. #1 TO BE LOVED BY YOU is another one who finds herself at her lowest level to date, and is as bad as any for the show dough. NOTE: AS OF 10:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Delray | 2nd -Fortuna Mia | 3rd -Army Gal |
#6 DELRAY makes her first start off a true break in the action, and is but a nose shy of having scored in three straight events. Gal picked up the lions share, ( Or is it the lionesses' share? ) in her only foray when last to load. Encouraging to see the Philadelphia Park Rider come in for the call. #5 FORTUNA MIA has a bucket of back class, and gets the miracle drug for the first time. #2 ARMY GAL by no means disgraced herself when facing stakes competition for the first time last out, as she split the field that day, and seems properly spotted for today's followup. NOTE: AS OF 10:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Solomoni's Legacy | 2nd -Runamor | 3rd -Capt Jax Parrow |
Aqueduct : 85-369( $653.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-18( 32.5% ) Favorite's Win % : 142-369( 38.5% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
