In memory of the passing of Harness Driver Hunter Myers, we'll be donating 10X the amount of whatever our winners, place horses & show horses pay this weekend to a charity he was fond of "Pacing for the Cure", ( combating Multiple Sclerosis ). Yesterday we generated $195 in his memory.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #7 Striker Has Dial
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Legal Deal | 2nd - Margin of Air | 3rd -Amity Road |
#4 LEGAL DEAL put forth an honest showing when being hiked up in class off a score, and it's encouraging to see the decent effort despite a voided claim in said tally. This one has a solid "declining" mark in a few relevant areas, and rates a slight edge in an opener with two first draft tosses. #3 MARGIN OF AIR has been a win machine on a fast track throughout his working life, boasting a 27% win rate throughout the years, and despite this one having 42 career afternoon treks to the front side, is in a second off the layoff situation for only the second time, while owning two wins in a third place finish when first to load. #2B AMITY ROAD was a visually impressive victor down in Maryland 34 days in the rear, and is hiked up in class off of that career best, wet track figaro. NOTE: AS OF 10:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.
| Race 2 | 1st -On Command | 2nd -She'salittle Edgy | 3rd -All Class |
#6 ON COMMAND played the fade a bit last time out, when setting most of the fractions before finishing third at this level. The cutback should suit her just fine today, and this Barn is 3 fer 7 with dirt stock who crashed the board less than 50 days ago. The winners came back $9, $3, and $8, and it looks like they just may have to grab her by the tail to get the glory. #7 SHE'SALITTLE EDGY will likely try to outgun the above to the top spot early on, and what's not to like about 24 exacta finishes from 39 career starts. #2 ALL CLASS got the job done the only time she was in a third off the bench engagement, and this lightly raced 5 year old has done pretty well since changing her running style two starts ago. Just may pick up some pieces should they be cooking on the front end.
| Race 3 | 1st -Light the Way | 2nd -Muazarah | 3rd -Abadin |
#6 LIGHT THE WAY was extremely gritty when going all the way when facing conditional platters right here at the end of February. New barn switches from the winning bug from that day to their go-to journeyman, and we see a repeat as being well within reach, but by no means a cinch. #1 MUAZARAH has won two of his last three calls to the post, and 3 for 12 mark beneath the seagulls stands out quite favorably against his zero for seven record in all other events. Feel free to upgrade the speed figure from the recent tally accordingly, is this one is better suited for a fast track than one with moisture in it. #4 ABADIN has been claimed the last three times he's been made available for purchase, and with good reason, as this one has cashed a good deal of checks along the way. Leaving beneath here, has Potts is having a frigid stand on the win side of the column.
| Race 4 | 1st -Turn and Count | 2nd -Radauti | 3rd -Grand Commander |
#1 TURN AND COUNT showed diddly poo when finishing in the back half of the pack at 33-1 in last month's overture, but there's no scary drop for this one, who now goes over a fast surface for the first time while losing the eye cups. The 382 Tomlinson figure tells us there is ample room for improvement, and the miracle drug is now a part of the makeup, which is some high relevance. Over the last 60 months, Carlito has his way when doing such to his dirt stock or breaks of 38-98 days, at 20-1 or beneath, as he is 8:5-1-1 with that sort, according to Formulator,and the winners came back a juicy, $5, $19, $20, and $3. There is a subcat of 3 for 3 with those at this level, and note that this outfit trained a multiple graded Stakes winning half sibling to this one, who got the job done in her first two outings, so we are going to give this one a chance to surprise here, in will likely be a healthy offering. #6 RADAUTI has improved with each passing start, and that includes back-to-back placings in her only forays on the main. Blinks are now a part of the equipment, and we see no reason to dismiss. #2 GRAND COMMANDER has yet to miss the superfecta, and totes the lightest impost of his working life for today's second try with blinkers.
| Race 5 | 1st -Despo's Dream | 2nd -Amy's Light | 3rd -Sandi's Satire |
#1 DESPO'S DREAM hasn't shown much since returning to the races after a 3 plus month sabbatical, as she's finished in the back half of the pack in both outings, but gets some class relief this afternoon, and is showing a win and a placing from her last two starts when up for grabs. Recognize that the barn is 3 of 10 with 3rd off the layoff, mid level sand sprinters right here, who missed the money 20-50 days in the rear, and are ridden by Lezcano. #3 AMY'S LIGHT may be a touch better than the Beyer from her recent effort belies, and gal now gets a hood slapped on for the first time. #2 SANDI'S SATIRE made every call a winning one in grabbing the sheepskin right here a baker's dozen days ago, and can land a share. NOTE: AS OF 10:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.
| Race 6 | 1st -Stand the Rain | 2nd -That's Funny | 3rd -Stone Cold Kelly |
#1 STAND THE RAIN had no palpable excuse for the subpar performance last time out, but she's been given a couple of months to sort things out, and now returns sans blinkers, while sliding in six post positions. From a trainer stat point of view, this clan is 10:4-2-0 with 3-year-old dirt dashers helmed by this jock at 25-1 or beneath ( non firsters ), and has a positive ROI with that study. #3 THAT'S FUNNY was a gamely third place finisher in a blanket finish down in Oldsmar 5 weeks back, and should be left in the mix. #7 STONE COLD KELLY has yet to finish out of the money in both starts right here, and who are we to rock that boat?
| Race 7 | 1st -Waiting for A.I. | 2nd -Monty Avi | 3rd -Perfect Shephard |
#6 WAITING FOR A.I. has seen every tooshie of all of his competitors in both starts to date, but let's be a little bit forgiving, as the debut was over sloppy going in a route, and in the followup he got smacked around at the onset while getting pushed in a bit. Fella draws nicely today, and it's encouraging to see a jockey that we've always been fond of, grab the reins. On the positive side, four of the five upstairs members of the family tree got their initial win within the first three starts, and in an allotment as suspect is this, why not swing away with a big number? #1 MONTE AVI has been a part of the superfecta in four of his last last five outings, and is showing a bit of a "Z" pattern from the last, when losing 5 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the half, before gaining nearly the exact same amount from that point to the finish line. #5 PERFECT SHEPARD gets his working papers today, and totes along a 7th best of 100 gate move for the lidlifter.
| Race 8 | 1st -Cupid's Heart | 2nd -Proud Foot | 3rd -Golden Degree |
#4 CUPID'S HEART has been beset by back to back layoff lines, and while having not faced the starter in more than eight flips of the calendar, we like that this ol' gray mare owns two wins and a showing from three starts off the pine, while having done some nice work beneath today's jock. Looking good if sound and fully cranked up. #2 PROUD FOOT ( Shouldn't it be 'hoof' ? ) is in decent form these days, and the 3 for 10 record at the Big A pops off the page in comparison to the 2 of 24 mark on other ovals. #3 GOLDEN DEGREE digs it here, and has ample enough speed to the land a share. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 STRIKER HAS DIAL NOTE: AS OF 10:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.
| Race 9 | 1st -Liberte de Bayeaux | 2nd -Hamilton's Way | 3rd -Frizzante |
For the life of us we can't fathom why Linda Rice put #1 LIBERTE DE BAYEAUX up for sale after winning a starter allowance at the end of last year, aas this colt was showing tremendous upside with what we felt was unlimited potential. Well, he got snagged that day, and followed it up with a well beaten, but daylight clear runner up while earning back the complete purchase price and then some for the new connections. Should crush these with a clean trip. #3 HAMILTON'S WAY put forth a nice runnerup performance in his penultimate try before being sent to the sidelines, and if you can be forgiven of the stakes defeat, then maybe toss this one in at a price. #2 FRIZZANTE shoots for the hat trick today, but as this chestnut chap seems to prefer the fringes, we are going to keep beneath.
| Race 10 | 1st -Rum Cay | 2nd -Total Silence | 3rd -Monomoy Beach |
#6 RUM CAY overcame a clumsy onset to set the pace in the Saint Valentine's Day debut, but ended up finishing third that day at 8-1. Filly drops a couple of pegs this afternoon, and the 373 Tommy says he's eligible to do even better. From a trainer stat aspect, this outfit is 5 of 10 with second time starters right here who are getting the wonder drug while being written by Lezcano, off L/O's of 22-50 days. There's a $2.81 cent return on investment for that study, and a subcategory of three for five with boys. #1 TOTAL SILENCE was a snappy and well clear runner up finish here the only time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his butt, and is entered at a level below that this afternoon. #2 MONOMY BEACH closes things out.
Aqueduct : 81-350( $621.90 ) Beatable Favorites: 4-17( 23.5% ) Favorite's Win % : 136-350( 38.9% )( As of Saturday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
