Happy Spring, everyone !!
Another big day for us here on Sunday, as we come into today on an 8 for 19 streak while besting the takeout for the meet.
We had the following:
--Three winners of $5, $6 & $10
--A $16 Quinella
--Two Triple Boxes of $115 & $56 & we cold decked one for $362
--Two Ice Cold Exactas of $67 & $43, and two Exacta Reverses of $25 & $50
--Four Rolling Doubles of $40, $65, $55 & $79, and a cold $34 Double
--Three Rolling Pick Threes of $433, $289 & $619
....aaaaaand, a $414 Rolling Grand Slam.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #3 Social Hour
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Stormin Sammy | 2nd -Bobby Bob | 3rd -Joker On Fire |
| Race 2 | 1st -Magic Eight Ball | 2nd -Street View | 3rd -The Shoe Lady |
| Race 3 | 1st -Stormy's Dreaming | 2nd - Fast Amendment | 3rd -Big Ego |
#2 STORMY'S DREAMING came along nicely to finish second at this level a bit more than a month ago, and did such when breaking from the rail at 10-1. Over the last 5 years, Charlie is a crisp 4 of 10 with Aqueduct based maiden claiming dirt critters who were in the money 18-50 days ago, and are in receipt of lasix. The winners came back $22, $8, $5, and $3, and this one can do with a touch of pace to cut into. #7 FAST AMENDMENT tossed in a bit of a clunker at 5/2 19 days ago, but draws better today, and deserves a chance to make amends. #6 BIG EGO has completed the exacta in his last duet, and gets some improvement upstairs today.
| Race 4 | 1st -Miss American Pie | 2nd -Bam's Bliss Kiss | 3rd -Stunning Sugar |
#7 MISS AMERICAN PIE got up in time to procure the sheepskin when getting the miracle drug for the first time, and while a bounce is always possible off of something like that, we are going to give her a slight edge in a race with no first draft eliminations. #4 BAM'S BLISS KISS returned off a bit of a freshening to finish a well clear runnerup in a near identical placement on the 2nd of the month, and good guy Duggan is 4 of 7 with optional dirt dashers right here who crashed the fiesta less than 38 days ago and our 7-1 or beneath. There is a 1-1 subcat with second off the layoff type, and she looks to be right in the thick of things once again. #1 STUNNING SUGAR was in the rear with the gear when last in action and his Stakes race, but we're a swedish by the fact that Barrow is 7 or 15 with dirt sprinters or breaks of 45 - 143 days, why not in receipt of the "Big L", at 40-1 or beneath. The R.O.I. for that study is $2.27, and we reserve the right to amend these selections once the odds are posted.
| Race 5 | 1st -Tiz Donegal | 2nd -Boss Three O Two | 3rd -Neuschwanstein |
#1 TIZ DONEGAL has been a part of the exacta and all of his non stakes events, fell short by just a neck directly behind a next out winner in his sole start off a break, got the job done the only time when first to load on a fast track, and is backed by a solid trainer start today. Over the last 260 weeks, baby Engelhart is a near perfect seven of eight with Aqueduct based dirt runners off breaks of 51 days or more, at 13-1 or less. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #3 BOSS THREE OH TWO made every call a winning one when dancing with cheaper on 2/22, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Big shot if able to outbreak the above. #3 NEUSCHWANSTEIN is reacquainted with blinkers this afternoon, and on the whole you have to admire this one's consistency, having been a part of the superfecta in the vast majority of his career outings.
| Race 6 | 1st -Blake B | 2nd -Funny Joke | 3rd -Bronx Bomber |
#1 BLAKE B has always been a fairly consistent sort, & after being kept in prison since the February 23rd claim, is brought back at the level from that day's policing. Meekest of choices in a race that's difficult to decipher. #6 FUNNY JOKE finished directly ahead of the above in the aforementioned event, and although this 6 year old ( who still has all his own parts ) burned some bread that day, he could move forward with the trainer upgrade in today's second off the bench deal. #8 BRONX BOMBER lit up the tote board in this race 47 days in the past, and we see no reason to dismiss here.
| Race 7 | 1st -Mighty Atlas | 2nd -My Last Mission | 3rd -Dr. Kraft |
#7 MIGHTY ATLAS was a well beaten but decently clear runner-up when going off at 19-1 in this race on the first of the month, and on the whole, his finest work has come at today's distance of ground. Mild choice. #3 MY LAST MISSION went to coast to coast like butter and toast when facing conditional platters at Philadelphia Park 39 days ago, and gray gelding completed the exacta the only time he went from two turns to one, while owning a 3:1-1-1 record in second off the bench jamborees. #6 DR. KRAFT is once again claim protected after a solid placing in his most recent outing, but as he's always preferred the fringes is more than anything else, we are going to relegate to the unders. NOTE: AS OF 7:04 THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 8 | 1st -Iron Man Ira | 2nd -Wajda | 3rd -Solo's Fury |
#4 IRON MAN IRA a has always been a bit of a money burner throughout his career, and drops in class today off a troubled placing a month back. Barn has a solid trainer statistic behind them, as they are five for nine with Aqueduct based sand dashers at this level who hit the board less than 5 weeks ago. The return on investment for that study is $2.94, and there is a subcat of 1-1 with Franco astride. #5 WAJDA made his first start for the new outfit a winning one in snagging the sheepskin, and the barn is four of eight with second off the claim dirt runners who broke their maidens 19-50 days back, at 13-1 or under. The winners came back a juicy $19, $23, $12, and $8, and this one lands in a soft spot for his first try against winners. #6 SOLO'S FURY showed some solid improvement the only time he was in the second off a layoff situation, and must be left in the hopper. NOTE: AS OF 11:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE
Aqueduct : 80-342( $615.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-16( 18.8% ) Favorite's Win % : 133-342( 38.9% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
