3/16 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections - Happy Saint Patrick's Day !! ( in advance )

Happy St. Patrick's Day, everyone !!  Make it a fun, and SAFE one.

We celebrated our 22,500th race analysis with a BIG card yesterday !!

--Five winners of $7 x 2, $9 x 2 & $3

--Eight Rolling Doubles of $37 x 2, $30, $50, $88, $90, $22 & $35

--Seven Rolling Pick Threes of $108, $426, $90, $387, $221, $119 & $137

--Three Rolling Pick Fours of $509, $1,044 & $532

--A $496 Rolling Pick Five

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #6 Smokey Places  Race 5 - #1 Charging Aero

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Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.  Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!

#4 REMEMBER THE CHIEF hasn't been seen since 'Toga time, but we like that he's protected against the claim for today's comebacker, and it's encouraging that the barn is on a nifty 3 fer 7 run with those coming back off of sabbaticals of 204 days or more, w/the winners paying a whopping $62, $43, and $30. By no means hopeless in this lackluster opener. #5 SHAKIN THE BELLE has earned a fair amount of checks in his career this far, but is giving the appearance of being "that" kind of a maiden, so we are going to leave beneath, especially as Rudy rod is 0 for 23 with Aqueduct based male dirt dashers at this level ( 3 & up ) who were in the money 8 to 50 days in the rear, @ 7-2 or less while wearing blinkers. #2 DIABOLICAL makes all kinds of sense off the most recent, but we are going to leave beneath, as Jena Antonucci is on a woeful 1 for 93 run on the circuit.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 SMOKEY PLACES doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 9/5 ?

#1 CRIMSON QUEEN bested more than half the field at 28-1 first time out, and did such when breaking from the inside, which gave her some decent training for today's engagement in that regards. Mild choice in a heat with but one first draft tossout. #5 LADY RAINICORN completed the superfecta at double digit odds in the 2/22 overture, and slides out a bit for today's followup. She may have outran her pedigree a bit that day, so demand a touch of value. #2 OUR PREFERRED PAL was a snappy runnerup directly ahead of a next out victresss in her last start over a glib surface, and they will likely have to grab her by the tail to get the glory.

#8 VERY SATISFACTORY ( "Ah, congratulations, that must have been a very satisfactory experience.". ) has hit the board in his quartet of sand starts to date, and that includes a solid placing when last to load. Barn just about doubles their normative win rate with maiden claiming sand sprinters who crashed the fiesta less than two fortnights back, ( at 3-1 or under ), while being in receipt of the miracle drug. There is a subcategory of two for two when Franco is astride, and this boy should sit a nice trip. #5 BRODERICK has missed the superfecta but once in his five race career, and totes his lightest impost yet. #4 Nilruc has done nothing but improve on a track label 'fast', and should be in the thick of things late in the game.

#6 FADE TO GREY was extremely gritty in making every call a winning one at the level just below this last time out, and the Toddster is supported by a solid trainer statistic with this one. Over the last 1,826 days, he is six of nine with Aqueduct based optional dirt dashers who got the job done 28-50 days in the past that are ridden by this pilot at 4-1 or beneath. The return on investment is $3.72, and of course, we like the draw. #1 TIPPLE got up late in the game to best A1X competition three weeks ago, and shedrow is five of six with female sand dashers at this level, who won 23-43 days ago. #5 JUST MUSIC tossed in a rare clunker last out, but was a'stumblin and a'bumblin at the onset, and deserves a chance to make amends.  NOTE: AS OF 11:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#8 MAJESTIC FRONTIER has put together honest back to back placings at this level in his last pair, and although his best work hasn't come in Ozone Park, we're assuaged by the solid trainer statistic this one brings along. Over the last 60 months, D'ally is 13:8-2-2-1 with mid level equines who were in the money less than 4 weeks ago, at 3-1 or beneath. The ROI for that survey is $3.58, and bay boy should sit a nice stalking trip. #3 JAKE ROCKS is still doing some nice work in his final year on this circuit, as he comes in today off a slightly troubled but hard charging second place finish when entered for a dime on the 2nd of February. For the third time in his last four heats, he changed addresses that day, and now gets a bit of an upgrade in the saddle. #7 SCREAMING UNCLE is at depths yet scene, and could spice things up a bit.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 CHARGING AERO   NOTE: AS OF 11:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#4 SHLOMO immolated some baccala in the comebacker, and now has blinkers affixed for the first time, which is fine by us. Over the last five annums, Mott is a saucy 5-6 when doing such to his maidens ridden by this jock who missed the money last out, and are spotted in a dirt dash. The winners returned a juicy $33, $27, $10, $3, and $16, and we'll give this one another shot. #7 INONIT has partaken in the super in five of his last six events, and jockey/trainer combination are a perfect three for three with dirt stock at 16-1 or beneath. The victors in that study came back a sweet $27, $7, and $30, and we reserve the right to amend our selections once the odds are posted. #1 TWOHONESTMISCHIEF has been gelded since the January 5th claim, and is now in receipt of the miracle drug for today's first start in more than 70 days. Using, but take a looksee during the warmup

#3 SHIFTY GOLD came from the back of the pack to get up in time in besting maiden platers down at Hallandale Beach at the end of January, and after that win, the connections keep this $210,000 purchase protected against the claim today. Brown is four of six with optional dirt entrants who picked up the sheepskin 38-50 days in the rear at 10-1 or beneath, and the ROI for that is $5.28. #1 LOU showed zilch in the comebacker, but we always like to be forgiving of pre and post layoff running lines, especially in this scenario, as he was bumped in both of those. Fella got the job done in his last one turn engagement prior to the outings we just mentioned, and from a limited sampling, green is two of three with dirt horses of l/o's of 36-50 days ( $3 & $8 ). #7 MCDIESEL gets an around the world treatment for the first time today -- first time juice, first time in with a tag, and first time running sans testicles. Might only need to find one of those to his liking to make an impression here.

After having gone on a 6 for 10 winning streak, #7 PRINTRACK cooled down a bit having won just one of six starts since. That being said, Ness wasn't dissuaded about dropping a half a C-note on him back on February 9th, and after keeping him in jail, has him returning in the spot where he can't be lost. Gelding has a sweet declining Mark of 21:8-5-2 right here, and is also backed up by a solid trainer stat. Over the last five calendars, this outfit is 11:7-3-1 with freshly purchased male allowance dirt critters helmed by Silvera, off absences of 20-50 days. The return on investment for that study is $5.33, and we would not be surprised to see him right the ship. #6 WAR STRIDE is but a head short of having won four of his last five outings, and deserves your respect off the career best figaro. #2 IGNITE THE LIGHT has been a different animal over his last three outings, and as they all came with the miracle drug, we see no reason to dismiss.   NOTE: AS OF 11:21, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#7 MY FIRST LOVE has hit the board in her last handful, and throughout her working life, her best efforts have come right here in Queens. After being kept in prison, post claim, this lady is dropped 40% in class this afternoon, so the connections would need a win to show a profit on the transaction, should another snag ensue. Recognize that her last two victories have come beneath today's jock, and thatt this clan is 9 of 17 with freshly purchased runners right here, who hit the board 27-41 days in the rear, and are guided by Jose, and there is a $3.08 R.O.I. for that study. #2 SPIRITUAL LADY played the fade last out, but loses her eye cups today for Rudy, and bested half the field in her only start without 'em way back when. #6 COLLECT DATT is back at the level from the big win two starts back, and is one for three and third off the bench jammies.  NOTE: AS OF 10:12 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

Aqueduct : 77-333( $595.50 )   Beatable Favorites: 3-14( 21.4% )  Favorite's Win % : 130-333( 39.3% )( As of Sunday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout