Today's 5th race is our 22,500th race here at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Yonkers Raceway, and Capital OTB !! ( Having NEVER missed a day. ) We thank you all for your continued support throughout the years, as we look forward to 23,000 !!
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Bedtime Story | 2nd - Pam Pam | 3rd -Book of Wisdom |
#2 BEDTIME STORY hasn't been seen in a couple of Saint Valentines Day days, but win machine is two for two off of a break the action, and is just about as equally bred for the brown stuff as the polytrack that she's been plying her trade on. New trainer is having a nice little meet so far, and tightened the screws on this one with a bullet breeze at the end of February. From a DRF formulator point of view, they are on a 6:4-2-0 run when being handed a runner off a break of 152 days or more ( $9, $6, and $5 x 2 ). Try to demand a bit of value with the low percentage pilot board. #6 PAM PAM is on a 6:2-2-2 streak when made available for purchase, and that includes a win the only time she was last to load. #3 BOOK OF WISDOM is back in with platers today, and we like that this notorious nibbler is still kept substantially above the purchase price from two back.
| Race 2 | 1st -On the Hill | 2nd -Kid Billy | 3rd -Sir Palace Prince |
It's looking to us like a two horse race here. #2 ON THE HILL has always been a fairly consistent sort, and although he's been a bit of a money burner of late ( only winning one of his last six as a favorite ), this somewhat fragile 6 year old is supported by a solid trainer stat which has Bond more than quadrupling is normative 12% batting average with allowance dirt dashers right here who crashed the party 20-50 days in the rear, that are 7-2 or less. He's 3 of 6 with that type, and the winners came back $6, $3, and $9. Recognize the two placings in both third of the layoff engagements. #1 KID BILLY is another one in a the third off the bench spot, and although he failed the only time that occurred, it happened to come in his first start on a wet track. Fella has never gotten closer to the rail than the four hole, and just may sit a snug trip. #5 SIR PALACE PRINCE finished in the back half of the pack when returning off a bit of a freshening, but was doing decent work just before the hiatus, and was a daylight clear runner up in his only prior pairing beneath Ruiz.
| Race 3 | 1st -Helen's Revenge | 2nd -Heavenly Light | 3rd -Pocket Queens |
#1 HELEN'S REVENGE was an even third place finisher in this race three dozen days back, and moves in four slots for today's second try with Lasix. Chance to do even better if able to catch a glib surface. #6 HEAVENLY LIGHT is an extremely consistent sort who has missed the triple but one time in her career, & should be smacked it in the middle of things once again with today's 2 lb. weight reduction, and a slight post position improvement. #7 POCKET QUEENS apparently found the miracle drug to her liking when winning in going away fashion to procure the sheepskin back in January, and the third place finisher was from that day got the job done when next in action.
| Race 4 | 1st -T Craft | 2nd -Paula's a Star | 3rd - Saxton |
#1 T CRAFT handled his first foray into the land of winners with aplomb, when rating kindly in drawing away to a win at the end. That's not an easy thing to accomplish, and he did such despite the pedigree for a wet track not being as strong as that for a fast surface on which he got the diploma just prior. Mild choice in a race with but one first draft elimination. #2 PAULA'S A STAR went to coast to coast like butter and toast when returning off a bit of a sabbatical last month, and while a bounce is always possible with a horse winning off a break and/or a Lasix addition, we like that she sheds a whopping 7 lb.'s off the tally. #5 SAXTON was extremely gritty in besting optional competition down in Maryland on 2/14, and this fella's yet to finish out of the superfecta.
| Race 5 | 1st - She's Complicated | 2nd -Twirling Beauty | 3rd -Elemiah |
OUR 22,500th race analysis coming up here at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Yonkers Raceway, and Capital OTB !! ( Ooofa ! ) We thank y'all for your continued support throughout the years ( having NEVER missed a day ), as we look forward to 23,000 !! #2 SHE'S COMPLICATED showed a bit of improvement second time out, when being in receipt of the miracle drug for the first time, and given the 383 Tommy, we say there's ample room to get even better. #5 TWIRLING BEAUTY gets her working papers today, and does such with a crisp breeze on the docket showing from last week. This is the first full out of a damn who got the job done first time out, and of the five other upstairs members of the family tree, two scored on first asking, with one completing the Exacta and one finishing out the superfecta. #4 ELEMIAH hasn't been seen since placing directly behind a next out victress during opening week at Saratoga last year, as something apparently went wrong after a workout two weeks later. This one has been getting back into shape at Palm Meadows since mid December, and is an obvious factor if sound and fully cranked up.
| Race 6 | 1st -Flat Out Flying | 2nd - Floki's Flight | 3rd -Midnight Trouble |
#2 FLAT OUT FLYING has gone back to back since changing trainers two starts ago, and the speed figure garnered in the recent score is just three points shy of an all time high for this chestnut chap making his 63rd career start. Four returnees from that affair have amassed a cumulative 4:1-1-1 record from three different races in their next outings, and not only does this boy excel at the trip, but is supported by a solid trainer statistic as well. Over the last 60 months, Atras is 3 fer 4 with Aqueduct based male dirt stock at this level, who got the job done 34-42 days in the past, at 4-1 or undah. #4 FLOKI'S FLIGHT appears to have the best shot of besting the above, based on the fact that he has never been entered this cheaply, and is another one who has excelled at the strip and over the strip. This fellow will be led over by a trainer who is 6 of 10 with male dirt sprinters at this level and locale, off hibernations of 69-133 days & written by Lezcano at 4-1 or undah. Keep in mind, that both runners have a total of three voided claims in their last four outings, so you'd best be served by examining with a fine tooth comb during the warmups. #5 MIDNIGHT TROUBLE was eased in the most recent, but hung up a couple of okay BSF's in the two starts prior to that, and his best work has come at today's dx..
| Race 7 | 1st -Elliptic | 2nd - Brown Suga Babe | 3rd -Racing Colors |
#4 ELLIPTIC has partaken in the superfecta in eight consecutive outings, and after being kept in jail since the claim at the end of January, is protected against such this afternoon, while toting the lightest impost of her career. Her finest efforts have come beneath the seagulls, and rates a slight edge versus these. #2 BROWN SUGA BABE hasn't shown much in her last duet, but we always like to go back three races to find something positive, as you can often get some value that way. Having said such, said affair was honest enough, and we'll give her a chance to spice things up. #5 RACING COLORS may plod along for a share.
| Race 8 | 1st -Rice entry | 2nd -D Day Sky | 3rd -Union Express |
Both the #1 SIX KINGS ( who recently placed against tougher at this distance ) and the #1A ACCIDENTAL BID ( who has never missed a super and seems nicely spotted off the maiden breaker ) comprise decent factions of the Rice coupled entry. #3 D DAY SKY is at depths seen, and gets an upgrade in the saddle today. #5 UNION EXPRESS was a chasm clear runnerup finisher in a strung out field on the 2nd of February, and as he's gotten better with each passing sand start, we see no reason to dismiss.
| Race 9 | 1st -Grammy Girl | 2nd -Catherine Wheel | 3rd -Save us Melania |
#2 GRAMMY GIRL is but a half length shy of shooting for the grand salami today, and is two for two with today's helmsman astride, while never having finished off the board in her three starts when going into the gate first. Sensible, but will need a seem late. #6 CATHERINE WHEEL returned off a full calendar hibernation to pick up 20% of the pot down in Oldsmar a month and a half ago, and should move a bit forward with that under her girthstrap. #1 SAVE US MELANIA scored by nearly a pole off the layoff last out, and while a regression is always possible, we see that she doubled up in one of her two starts after a win.
| Race 10 | 1st -Melt With You | 2nd -Venge | 3rd -Eric From Miami |
#1A MELT WITH YOU owns a win and two placings in her quartet of one turn heats, and gelding has done some nice work at today's dist.. Tepid choice in the nightcap. #2 VENGE has made every call a winning one in his last two calls to the post, and is a threat to do such once again despite the hike in class. #7 ERIC FROM MIAMI scored by a pole versus conditional platers a month back, and we like that he was a bit closer to the pace that day.
Aqueduct : 72-323( $557.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-14( 21.4% ) Favorite's Win % : 127-323( 39.3% )( As of Saturday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
