We ended the week on a profitable note, with a handful of winners, two cold Exactas of $13 & $8, and two cold Doubles of $9 & $14, as we're still besting the takeout for the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Bold Victory | 2nd - Ice Time | 3rd -Portos |
After slightly outperforming her expectations in both higher level starts after the 2/1 claim, #3 BOLD VICTORY is back at that purchase price today, and as a matter of fact finished second in that identical placement to today. Slight edge in a race with one first draft elimination. #1 ICE TIME has proven to be another decent purchase by Jimmy Ferraro, as this fella is 7:1-0-2-1 since being bought back in September, and the aforementioned shotcaller is on a 3 for 6 streak with those going off at less than 12-1. #5 PORTOS is a notorious nibbler, as the 40:2-6-10 box score belies, but cuts back to a distance that he's done well at this year. Can land a share once again.
| Race 2 | 1st -Heavyweight Champ | 2nd -Elysian Meadows | 3rd -Factually Correct |
#1 HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMP made every call a winning one in a gritty effort three dozen days back, and draws nicely for the obligatory hike up the ladder. #3 ELYSIAN MEADOWS hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but barn knows how to have their stock ready for comebackers, and colt has won both one turn local engagements. #4 FACTUALLY CORRECT has been kept in prison since the St. Valentine's Day snag, and returns right back at that same level today while picking up a jock who scored in his only start for this outfit.
| Race 3 | 1st -Condiment Girl | 2nd -April Antics | 3rd - |
#1 CONDIMENT GIRL was a lively one of a finisher in this race 20 days ago, and slides in six slots off of that effort, which is fine by us has he is but a half length shy of being two for two when first to load in one turn events. #2 APRIL ANTICS didn't show a whole heck of a lot in the most recent, but the adjusted figaro in her penultimate try was honest enough, and could surprise at a price. #7 RAW POWER is an extremely consistent sort who finished just behind the above in their recent encounter. Leaving beneath because of the 12 slot swing in the post position department between them.
| Race 4 | 1st -Pop Coyer | 2nd - Stewie | 3rd -Forward Move |
#4 POP COYER split the field in his first start off the claim, and is now back at the level that he was bought for, in today's second off the bench spot. Meekest of choices in a race that's difficult to decipher. #2 STEWIE has the white flag run up after a disappointing effort at 7/2, but as he found the line first in one of two second off the bench deals, we'll give him a shot with an upgrade in the saddle. #7 FORWARD MOVE bested only one last time out, but is in with a tag once again, and is two for two when up for grabs on a track labeled FST.
| Race 5 | 1st -Short Shift | 2nd -Troubled Luck | 3rd -Shaman Princess |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #6 SHORT SHIFT nearly went all the way when finishing a well clear runnerup and in an identical spot a half a month back, and they will likely have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. Should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there. #2 TROUBLED LUCK outran her odds quite nicely when showing at nearly 50 to 1 last out, and we see no reason to dismiss. #7 SHAMAN PRINCESS was an honest runnerup finisher at this level 46 days back, but as there was a claim voided that day, it would behoove you to take a gander pre race.
| Race 6 | 1st -Margin of Air | 2nd -Magnificent Mile | 3rd -Unlimitedpotential |
#5 MARGIN OF AIR returned off a bit of a freshening to pick up 12% of the pot in his first start of the December claim, and could move forward with that under his girthstrap. #6 MAGNIFICENT MILE ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) handled the hike in class decently enough when placing at this level in his first start after being bought, and as the figure earned that day was a career best number, we simply have to include -- especially with his consistency. #1 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL has done well at this trip and over the strip, and should be left in the mix despite the moved up the ladder. NOTE: AS Of 11:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -La Banquera | 2nd -Jackson's Dixie | 3rd - Sue Ellen Michigan |
Another race where our listed troika should do the trick. #5 LA BANQUERA shoots for the hat trick today, and as she has gone wire to wire in both starts since the claim, we are seeing it as quite doable. Note that the runnerup from her recent tally got the job done when next in action. #3 JACKSON'S DIXIE has the sort of "declining" mark that we've grown to love ( 28:8-5-2 ), and has done some excellent work right here beneath the seagulls; goes from a bug to a journeyman today. #1A SUE ELLEN MISHKIN is on an 0 for 5 streak after beginning her career 10 for 20, but will give her a chance to make amends for the last pair because of her solid record at today's distance.
| Race 8 | 1st -Count to Move | 2nd -Dear Chairman | 3rd -Solvency |
#6 COUNT TO MOVE gave a solid account of himself when breaking from the 11 hole at first asking, as he completed the triple behind a next out victress, who elevated the speed figure by approximately 10.2% in the process. The only issue we see, is that he may have outrun his pedigree a bit in the debut, and while we will be using, it's not without a touch of trepidation. #7 DEAR CHAIRMAN likely bled in the most recent, as Lasix is now a part of the package, and given the ascension of BSF's in the one turn starts prior to that, who quite knows where his ceiling is in that regards. #2 SOLVENCY totes along a hefty 374 Tommy for today's lidlifter, and has a couple of decent moves on the work tab for such.
Aqueduct : 70-315( $551 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-14( 21.4% ) Favorite's Win % : 124-315( 39.4% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
