Profitable two bagger for us here yesterday, along with a $45 cold triple.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #1A Solo Flight ( only if his entrymate declares ) Race 6 - #7 Capt Jax Parrow
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st - Wild Banker | 2nd -Bad Larry | 3rd -Retail Man |
| Race 2 | 1st -Power Driver | 2nd -Roshielle My Bell | 3rd -No Factor |
#3 POWER DRIVER has blinkers added after some troubled beginnings in the last pair, but we like that there was no scary drop in today's second start off the claim, & barn is supported by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 60 months, they're 4 of 10 with second off the snag female dirt dashers right here, off breaks of 8-41 days, at 9-1 or beneath. The winners came back $7, $10, $14, and $8. #2 ROSHIELLE MY BELLE has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but is made available for purchase for the first time while also now in receipt of the miracle drug. #5 NO FACTOR is another one getting eye cups, and picks up a jock who has done some decent work at the stand.
| Race 3 | 1st -Braca | 2nd -Twirling Vine | 3rd -A Knight's Courage |
#4 BRACA hasn't done much to get the heart thumping in his last triad, but there may be some hidden value here. Over the last 260 weeks, 11% Barrera more than quadruples that batting average with Aqueduct based maiden claiming sand sprinters that are getting the wonder drug, at 31-1 or beneath. The winners returned a healthy $33, $13, $8, and $7, and this is for horses who were off the board 18-39 days ago, and we emphasize off, because he is 0 for 4 with those who are on the board last time out. That's an anomaly that we like to see, especially for trainers who put their horses over. #8 TWIRLING VINE showed zippo in the return, but did well and both second off the bench engagements, and is another one who can spice things up. #6 A KNIGHT'S COURAGE rounds out the top three. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1A SOLO FLIGHT fills the bill if his entrymate declares.
| Race 4 | 1st -Lottie Margaret | 2nd -Bernieandtherose | 3rd -Boston's Phinest |
#7 LOTTIE MARGARET has improved with each passing start from a speed figure aspect, in winning her last pair by 10 lengths each time. So right off the bat, who knows where this one ceiling is in that regards. From a trainer stat point of view, Cox is four of six with Aqueduct based dirt sprinters who got the job done 29-59 days in the rear, that are 5-1 or beneath and are ridden by Franco, while not getting the "Big L". There is a positive ROI for that study, and of course, we dig the draw. #4 BERNIEANDTHEROSE shoots for the abbreviated grand slam today, and while we see no reason to dismiss, be careful of a bounce in today's second off the bench jammie. #2 BOSTON'S PHINEST has gone from one Brown to another since finishing next to last in the East View, and jockey/trainer combination have done quite well together.
| Race 5 | 1st -Willintoriskitall | 2nd -Hey Toby | 3rd -Liberty Central |
Like so many other horses that get transitioned to his barn, #3 WILLINTORISKITALL has done solid work for Jimmy Ferraro since moving over to that shedrow in December. Gelding has yet to finish out of the money, and we were ecstatic to see him more forwardly placed in the most recent, then the penultimate showing. Just in reading the comments in this one's past performances, you can see how game he's been in overcoming trouble along the way, and comes in today supported by a solid trainer stat. Over the last 1,876 days, Jimmy is 5 for 16 with AQU based allowance dirt runners off breaks of 10-41 days, at 8-1 or beneath, and the mutuels for that study were $10, $9, $15, $5, and $17. We feel the race goes through this one. #1 HEY TOBY went coast to coast like butter and toast versus conditional platers at the end of January, and we don't see today as a rise class, so a repeat is well within reach. #6 LIBERTY CENTRAL has hit the board in every start on a fast track with the exception of one where he got smacked around a bit, and must be left in the hopper.
| Race 6 | 1st -Just Cheesy | 2nd -Damage | 3rd -Play the Gray |
#1 JUST CHEESY has finished in the back half of the pack in his last duet, but we are going to take a shot at a solid offering this afternoon, based on the trainer statistic in play. Over the last five annums, Velazquez is 5 fer 7 with maidens not getting Lasix off layoffs of 9-20 days at 27-1 or beneath, with the payouts returning $5, $9, $4, $26, and $7. Recognize that his best effort came when breaking from the inside. #3 DAMAGE has basically improved with each passing sand start, and should be in the thick of things back in with empire breds. #8 PLAY THE GRAY ( uncoupled barnmate with our top selection ) has cashed checks in all seven of his outings, and is a sensible inclusion. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 CAPT JAX PARROW, as Maker is 0-8 with all relevant categories. NOTE: AS OF 10:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Calisa | 2nd -Will of a Wommane | 3rd - Fedupwiththefed |
#7 CALISA begins her working life today, and does such with a nicely tucked away bullet gate move on the ledger, which is something that always piques our interest. Although the pedigree is a bit unproven, we see that three siblings and five upstairs members of the family tree have done quite well early on. Four of them won at first asking, one of them got the job done in the followup, and two scored third time out. Barn is one of two with firsters not getting Lasix at 17-1 or beneath, with that winner returning ten clams. Things to like in a race that leaves a bit to be desired. #9 WILL OF A WOMANNE draws nicely for the lidlifter, and went for more than 8X the stud fee up in Togatown a year and a half ago. Sensible if fully cranked up. #2 FEDUPWITHTHEFED is displaying a sensational best of 195 gate workout for today's overture, and that's enough reason for us to include.
| Race 8 | 1st -General Banker | 2nd -Winit | 3rd -Cascais |
Like we've always said, what else is there to say about the training job done with #3 GENERAL BANKER. This $7,500 New York homebred can cross the 100X threshold for that amount in career earnings today with a tally, and given the solid length and a half defeat in what we'd consider to be the most competitive race of the meat thus far, back in February, we'd say it is quite doable. Given all this horse has accomplished, it's unbelievable that he has only been favored once in this, his 30th career start, and that day's favoritism was by a mere 30 cents! Even aside from the above platitudes, this outfit is four of nine with Queens based optional sand dashers who finished out of the $ off sabbaticals of 18 - 38 days, that are 16-1 or beneath. The winners paid a quite healthy $20 $13, $31, and $18. #4 WINIT has been freshened up a bit since flopping in early January, but has done well off an absence, and is reacquainted with blinkers now. #7 CASCAIS got the job done in his only second off the layoff deal on a good surface, and deserves a chance to make amends for the recent disappointment.
| Race 9 | 1st -Mo Plex | 2nd -National Identity | 3rd -Soontobeking |
#3 MO PLEX has been given some time off after a successful two year old campaign, and appears to have been working well for today's return, while landing in a decent spot. Looking good, but by no means a cinch. #5 NATIONAL IDENTITY has posted cracker jack back-to-back efforts in his last pair, but they were split up by a layoff line, and you have to beware of a regression in a spot like this. Must include, but with a touch of caution. #4 SOONTOBEKING has partaken in the superfecta in all his non graded starts thus far, with his best work having come over this oval. Will likely been in the thick of things once again.
| Race 10 | 1st -Gracie Girl | 2nd -Sweet Lilac | 3rd -Moontown |
#10 GRACIE GIRL lands in a pretty soft spot for her career starter, and although the worktab doesn't tell us much, we see that the family tree has fared pretty well early on. Jockey/Trainer combination do better together than apart, and could get a good trip should the outside horse pass her in the early stages. #2 SWEET LILAC showed marked improvement at boxcar odds when going over a track labeled FST second time out, and must be included because of such. #8 MOONTOWN takes the biggest drop in the game, as the barn enlists the services of their go to rider, and this slides in a few slots as well.
Aqueduct : 65-306( $527 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-14( 21.4% ) Favorite's Win % : 118-306( 38.6% )( As of Sunday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
