Decent day for us here yesterday, with a profitable three bagger ( $13, $12 & $2 ), three Exacta Boxes of $312, $5 & $10, two Rolling Pick Threes of $261 & $113, and an Ice Cold Double of $82.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Yayi Nikolle | 2nd -Lady Luka | 3rd - Rasta Girl |
#1 YAYI NIKOLLE overcame some equipment issues last time out to finish a hard charging second at this level, and could fare even better in stretching out a panel while adding the miracle drug. We've have had no problems with utilizing this pilot the entire meet. #5 LADY LUKA hasn't shown much on the worktab for today's lidlifter, but is bread decently enough, & needn't be much to make an impression in an extremely soft event. #6 RASTA GIRL displayed some improved early dash last time out versus substantially tougher, and we actually think this one may surprise a bit as she drops to her lowest level yet for today's third try off the respite.
| Race 2 | 1st - Spikezone | 2nd -Surveillance | 3rd -Twenty Four Mamba |
#5 SPIKEZONE has a tremendous amount of early zip, and boy oh boy, isn't it difficult to argue with that lifetime mark of 14 for 26 ? Gelding is three or four at today's distance of ground, and got the job done the only time she was last to load on a glib surface. Looks to us as if the race goes through this one. #4 SURVEILLANCE was confidently hiked in class off the November claim, and picked up 20% of the problem being a day like clear runner up and the new identical spot on 1/16, it makes all kinds of sense once again. #1 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA has hit the board only twice in his last octet, but was facing saltier competition in most of those, and has gotten the job done in his last two starts outside of stakes company when not returning off a sabbatical.
| Race 3 | 1st -Montebello | 2nd -That's Money | 3rd -Brew Pub |
#3 MONTEBELLO was a snappy runner-up finisher in the near identical placement 22 days in the rear, and aside from that, comes in today with a nice record over this oval. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #4 THAT'S MONEY makes his third start off the bench this afternoon, when placing versus weaker foes on the 4th of January. Note that the runnerup from that day return victorious, and improved in the speed figure department by 10%. Looks to be the main threat to the above. #5 BREW PUB as bad as any for the show dough.
| Race 4 | 1st -Irridescent | 2nd -Commerce Comet | 3rd -Daufuskie Island |
#4 IRRIDESCENT has been claimed in four of his last five starts were made available for purchase, and with good reason, as he quite often gives a solid account of himself. Colt is confidently hiked up the ladder despite being out of jail after the recent snag, and given his sweet declining mark at today's distance of ground, we'd say a repeat is well within reach this afternoon. Slight edge in a race with no first draft tosses. #6 COMMERCE COMET has always been a check earning fool, and is another one moved up the ladder after an honest placing on the 5th of January. Logical contender. #1 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND went to coast to coast like butter and toast vs. conditional platters two dozen days in the rear, and as he's done okay in second off the bench jamborees, we'll chunk in. NOTE: AS OF 11:33, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Dream on Cara | 2nd -She's Always Rosie | 3rd -Justheart |
#5 DREAM ON CARA got up in time to procure the sheepskin right here on the 16th of January, and while facing winners for the first time is never an easy spot, the form that she brought into that tally tells us that the light bulb may have finally come on. Meekest of selections in a race with no first draft eliminations. #4 SHE'S ALWAYS ROSIE hit the board in both second off the layoff engagements, and is now entered for her lowest tag yet. #3 JUSTHEART is aggressively hiked up the ladder after the 12/27 purchase, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today.
| Race 6 | 1st -Thank You Jon | 2nd -King Khali | 3rd -Badlands Ruler |
#6 THANK YOU JON bested more than half the field when spotted for a dime last time out, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for his decent showing. Pre claim pilot comes back, and that's something we always like to see, and although he's answered for a higher price tag, it's versus conditional claimers, which is sort of the same caliber as the most recent. Timid choice. #3 KING KHALI didn't show much last time out, but got smacked around a bit that day, and deserves a chance to make him ends. #2 BADLANDS RULER has done his best work right here & cuts back from two turns to one, but as Chatterpaul is on a dreadful 1 for 55 run, we'll relegate this one to the unders. NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH & A NUMERICAL ERROR, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-1-2. NOTE: AS OF 3:39, DUE TO A GATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Nolita | 2nd -Clover Street | 3rd -Sue Ellen Mishkin |
#5 NOLITA grinded ( Ground ? ) out a win when facing A1X competition three dozen days back, and on the whole, owns a two of five mark right here in Ozone Park. Mild choice despite rising up the ladder today. #2 CLOVER STREET outran her odds decently enough when completing the superfecta at 38-1 last time out, and steady sort it should be in the thick of things once again. #4 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN was up the track with no palpable excuse back on the 19th of January, but has done fine work right here and should be left in the mix back in with Empire breds.
| Race 8 | 1st -Heavenly Light | 2nd -Ada May | 3rd -Higher Force |
#8 HEAVENLY LIGHT has hit the board in all her starts but one, and that includes a win and a placing over this oval. Gray gal draws the outside for the first time, and totes along a solid placing in this race 23 days in the rear. Sensible, but by no means a cinch. #4 ADA MAY picked up 20% of the pot in a softer spot 23 days back, but could fare even better in today's second start on a good surface. #1 HIGHER FORCE was a couple of lengths behind our top selection in their recent encounter, and has to be left in the mix in today's 3rd off the bench / second time wonder drug spot.
Aqueduct : 47-192( $370.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-9( 22.2% ) Favorite's Win % : 70-192 ( 36.7% )( As of Sunday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
