2/8 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Just one chalky winner for us here yesterday, on a day when six winning favorites came in.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.  Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!

After disappearing off the work tab for a few months, #7 MEGA CHANGER got back into the swing of things with a handful of crisp morning moves, including a second best of 39 breeze out of the Penn National gate. While the pedigree is still unproven, there are no world beaters signed on, and February foal has a maturity advantage over those who have yet to race. Slight edge. #4 WILD MISCHIEF hasn't shown much on the dirt to date, but goes over a fast track for the second time, and is now in receipt of the miracle drug -- like so many others these days. #1A FOREVER TO GO has yet to finish off the board, and who are we to rock that boat?

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 SAND DEVIL has been a visually impressive victor in both starts to date, drawing away powerfully in the most recent while stretching out a quarter of a mile. Colt sheds a couple of pounds off of that tally, and while a repeat is well within reach, is by no means a lock here. #1 SOONTOBEKING got up in time to best optional competition right here at 27 days in the rear, and his best work has come at Ozone Park. Recognize the game tally in his only start when loading first. #5 NATIONAL IDENTITY showed stark improvement when placing at 17-1 in a tougher spot than this last out, and looms a majah dangah.

#5 STRACA has improved with each passing start, culminating with a going away win versus special weight competition on the 1st of December. Who knows where this one's ceiling truly is, and we like any horse who drops weight off of a score. From a very limited Formulator standpoint, good guy Duggan is two of three with locally based ungraded dirt runners who are not in receipt of the miracle drug, off sabbaticals are 58-85 days at 11-1 or beneath. #1 NAIVE MELODY went coast to coast like butter and toast right out of the box on 12/28, but goes outside to inside today, and we always prefer when horses do the exact opposite. Leaving beneath, as she was better bred for the wet track that day then a glib surface, but you still must include. #2 BOSTON'S PHINEST has been a part of the superfecta in every start thus far, and just sit a cozier trip than last time out

We don't really have the best feel on this deal, so tread lightly. #4 HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS got smacked around a touch @ the onset, and merely finished midpack in the comebacker, while taking a decent amount of money. We always like to be forgiving of pre and post layoff running lines, as perhaps something went awry before being shelved, and perhaps they weren't fully cranked up for the return. That being said, the penultimate outing before the break yielded an adjusted speed figure of 80.1, and anything remotely close to that puts him smack dab in the middle of things. #3 LIMIT UP has always been a check earning fool throughout his career, and although he's been away since turkey time, has done well off a break in the action and would be no surprise here. #8 ON THE HILL was a lively runnerup finisher in both third off the layoff engagements, and has also partaken in the exacta in 9 or 14 starts at today's distance of ground. We like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit, and could sit a sweet trip.

#2 ONE VISION got roughed up some when beginning his January 17th event, and basically lost all chance that day as he prefers to be up towards the front end. Looks like he may have bounced in the start before that, and now gets the "Big L" for the first time while losing his eye cups. Bay boy has posted a couple of solid efforts on the sandy stuff, and barn had a longshot winter here on Sunday. From a trainer stat point of view, barn is two or three with second off the claim dirt runners at this level who missed the board less than 48 days ago. Watch out suckahs !!  #3 SWEET JULIAN has done okay in the mornings for today's lidlifter, and cheaply bred home bred gets in light. Recognize that three or four upstairs members of the family tree we were able to unearth got the job done at first asking, with the other one placing, and scoring second time out. #6 SWAY THE JURY played the fade right out of the box, but descendant of a hot sire it deserves a second chance to sort things out.  NOTE: AS OF 11:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#1 MAXALUNA gets her working papers this afternoon, and does such with a solid workout last week. Four upstairs members of the family tree scored at first asking, with the other two getting the job done second time out & from a small study, this outfit is 2-5 with locally based firsters at this level who are in receipt of Lasix at 22-1 or beneath, and the returns for those winners were $23 and $8 ( with a subcategory of one for one with Franco astride ). #8 DELAWARE DEVIL finished in the back half of the pack when debuting on January 10th, but the pedigree says there is room for improvement and you may get some value here. #2 PAULA IS A STAR hasn't been seen since completing the triple in her late May bow, but the sensational best of 178 gate move on 1/26 tell us she could be sitting on a corker for the comebacker.  NOTE: AS OF 11:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#2 PEONY hasn't faced the starter since finishing next to last in this race on December 7th, but we like that there's no scary drop for this $15,000 bred animal, and that C-Squared is backed by a solid statistic. Over the last 60 months he's five of eight with allowance stock off brakes of 51-75 days at 16-1 or beneath, with the winners returning $6, $3, $5 x 2, & $8. There is a subcategory of three for three in Queens, and you may get a decent price with this one. #4 LA BANQUERA went all the way in posting a career best effort in her first start after the claim, and we consider today's competition on par with those she bested in said event. A bounces always possible, but we'd be remiss in excluding. #9 ARIANA RYE lost by a neck in a similar spot on the 4th of January, and while sensible, we'll keep beneath, as Falcone has lost with his last 13 starters, and is on a 1 for 21 with dirt runners.

#1 EXPECTED VALUE was in the rear with the gear when returning off more than a ten month hibernation, but this fella lost by only neck in his only second off the break jammie, and finished third in his soul start when first to load. According to Daily Racing Form Formulator, Brown is 7 of 12 with 2nd off the layoff optional dirt dashers right here, off breaks of less than seven weeks. Would you like another solid statistic ? He is also 7 for 13 with today's pilot in local dirt deals at 8-1 or underneath when going one turn off an l/o of less than 80 days. Oodles of things to like. #3 SKYLANDER shoots for the grand salami today, and given the speed figures posted in the last duet, we see no reason to dismiss. Once again, what can you say about what Jimmy Ferraro has done w/ #6 GENERAL BANKER. This $7,500 homebred can hit nearly the $750,000 career earnings ark with a win today, but at the very least, you know he's likely to be in the mix like a Tazmanian Devil late in the game.

Graduation day for #7 VEKINDA. If the above stubs his hoof for some reason, we're thinking #12 COUNTER MOVE would have the best chance of getting the job done, based on the solid work tab, of which this uncoupled barnmate of our top selection has been kept apart from that one in the mornings. Interesting. #6 MONTAUK MEMOIRS has been on point with a couple of crisp morning moves in preparation for today's initial afternoon trek to the front side, and could spice things up underneath

Aqueduct : 44-183( $342.90 )   Beatable Favorites: 2-9( 22.2% )  Favorite's Win % : 67-183 ( 36.7% )( As of Saturday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout