Just a pair of chalky winners on a messy afternoon, yesterday, along w/a Beatable Favorite, three Rolling Doubles of $31, $22 & $78, and a $21 Exacta Box.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Good Mission | 2nd -My Angel | 3rd -Cuprite |
#5 GOOD MISSION showed some early dash when facing open competition on January 10th, but faded on the turn before finishing next to last. Gray gal is back in with Empire breds this afternoon, and jockey/trainer combination do substantially better than apart. #1 MY ANGEL ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) was a lively and daylight clear runner up when making her second start off off a break in the action, and slides in a handful of slots for today's third off the bench deal. #4 CUPRITE most likely needed the last, and it's encouraging to see the pilot come back despite the next to last finish.
| Race 2 | 1st -Magical Ways | 2nd -Masmak | 3rd -Peek |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 MAGICAL WAYS has been a bit camera shy since last March, but has posted a couple of decent speed figures of late, and is now reunited with a pilot that he's had substantial success with. We dig the local declining mark of 16:4-3-1, and should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there. #1 MASMAK has yet to finish out of the exacta since changing trainers, but he has a tendency to run into some trouble, we'll keep beneath with today's inside placement. #4 PEEK essentially went all the way at the level just below this last out, and may and a share once again.
| Race 3 | 1st -Adelke | 2nd -Spring Magic | 3rd -Gold Crest |
#5 ADELKE has gone pillar to post in her last quartet, and having fit snugly into some starter spots, she walloped those in her last troika as well. Barn is three for three with optional dirt stock ridden by this bug ( obviously, all with this horse ) and we see a wirejob as being well within reach once again. #1 SPRING MAGIC has been a popular item at the claim box, as this miss has had to leave a forwarding address in her last five starts when made available for purchase. There's good reason for that, as she's a check earning machine, but still being in jail for one more day, is compelled to take a hike in class this afternoon. #4 GOLD CREST hasn't been seen since the summertime, but got the job done in her only dirt start off a sabbatical, and did it buy a pole, as well. Take a glance during the warmups if possible. NOTE: AS OF 11:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Solo's Fury | 2nd -Majestic Arc | 3rd -King Freud |
#8 SOLO'S FURY hasn't been seen since mid October, but finds himself at his lowest level to date, and posted a career best figaro the last time he returned off a break in the action. Sole score came at this trip and over this trip, and this chestnut chap had a nice placing the only time when last to load. #3 MAJESTIC ARC was a strong runnerup finisher in this race on the 11th of January, and we see no reason to dismiss here. #2 KING FREUD finished just behind the above in said encounter, but as he didn't rock the world in his lone second off the bench deal, we'll keep beneath that one once again. NOTE: AS OF 11:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Beachwalker | 2nd -Higher Quality | 3rd -Majestic Frontier |
#1 BEACHWALKER was up the track when going two turns for the first time in more than 20 months, and is prmptly cut back to 1X this afternoon which is of some relevance. Over the last 60 months, Rudy Rod is three of nine when doing such with locally based, mid level sand stock who missed the money less than 50 days back, that are 14-1 or beneath. The winners returned $5, $7, and $8, and note the upgrade in the irons. #7 HIGHER QUALITY is another one on the cutback today, and has done some decent work at this dx.. #4 MAJESTIC FRONTIER may plod along for a piece. NOTE: AS OF 1:11 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 6 | 1st -Gaga's Hamsome | 2nd -Power Driver | 3rd -Carol Said No |
#5 GAGA'S HAMSOME didn't show a whole heck of a lot in the first try against winners, but that's never an easy spot, and it's nice to see a hot pilot stick around. From a Formulator point of view, The Price is Right when it comes with Barker's dirt stock not getting the miracle drug off breaks of 8-39 days, as he's on a 7 of 14 run with that type at 7-1 or beneath, and has an ROI of $3.25 as well. #8 POWER DRIVER has been kept in jail since being snagged for a quarter back on 1/17, and returns back at that same level today while retaining the pilot ( which is something we always like to see ). #4 CAROL SAID NO has hit the board in all three starts on a glib surface, and could be sitting on a nice effort in today's "third off the bench/second time blinks/second time Lasix" attempt.
| Race 7 | 1st -Colloquial | 2nd -One Nine Hundred | 3rd -Porosity |
#5 COLLOQUIAL was a green but snappy runnerup finisher when starting things out last June, but as so often happens with the youngsters, disappeared for more than five and a half months afterwards. There's a nicely hidden bullet breeze on the worktab for today's return, and the 433 Tomlinson tells us the big time speed figure from that day was not an aberration. Recognize that six returns from that deal amassed a cumulative 6:2-1-1 record when next in action, improving by an average of 1.3 points per. #1 ONE NINE HUNDRED appears to have the best chance of upsetting the above, based on the troubled but strong third place finish in the debut, and the top flight pedigree to back that up. #4 POROSITY has done okay in the mornings for today's lidlifter, and is as good as most of the remaining entrants for the show dough.
| Race 8 | 1st -Giant at Work | 2nd -Giant at Work | 3rd -Trull Magic |
#5 GIANT AT WORK put forth and okay effort when going in the goo for the first time towards the end of 2024, and is now in receipt of the Big L for today's second start on a track labeled FST. Slight edge. #1 MOONLIGHT GAL went from a 38 to a 50 from her first dirt engagement to the next, and after a couple of failed tries on the sod, is back on the surface where we think she'll do her best. #7 TRULLI MAGIC takes the biggest drop in the game for today's second start with the wonder drug, and get some improvement upstairs. NOTE: AS OF 11:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct : 43-175( $339.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-9( 22.2% ) Favorite's Win % : 61-175 ( 34.9% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
