Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #3 Harlan's Bond
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Follow Your Arrow | 2nd -Ness entry | 3rd -Union Street |
#2 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW has been a different animal since transitioning back to the main two months ago, as she's amassed two wins and a placing and just as many starts. Gal has been perfectly kept in jail by a few days after being snagged for a quarter on January 10th, and returns back at that same level while shedding 80 oz.. Both the #1 RIBBONSINHERHAIR ( comes in off of showing in a near identical spot ) and the #1A HOW SWEET SHE IS ( who posted a career best numero when winning by a dozen the last time she was on a fast track ) comprise decent factions of the Ness entry. #5 UNION STREET hasn't been seen since the end of October, is just dropped in class a bit for today's come back, as born utilizes their go-to rider. BEATABLE FAVORITE: We have no idea why the #3 HARLAN'S BOND is favored here.
| Race 2 | 1st -Rachel's Rock | 2nd -Disco Ebo | 3rd -Sweet Brown Sugar |
#5 RACHEL'S ROCK was an honest and decently clear runnerup in this race a month back, and goes inside to outside this afternoon, which is fine by us as the only time she was last to load an adjusted 84.6 was the end result. #4 DISCO EBO is a well traveled sort, who aside from owning a snazzy overall win rate, has won eight of her last ten outside of stakes company. #1 SWEET BROWN SUGAR has been in absentia for the last three and a half months, but it's good to see she's one for two off of break in the action, while doubling that mark beneath the seagulls. Tough to dismiss this win machine.
| Race 3 | 1st -Princess Becca | 2nd -Amy's Light | 3rd -Baroness Bourbon |
We are going to blast off with the ol' three...two...one triple here. #3 PRINCESS BECCA returned off a bit of a freshening to complete the Exacta in this spot 25 days in the rear, and on the whole, her finest work has come right here in Ozone Park. #2 AMY'S LIGHT hasn't done a whole heck of a lot since being snagged nearly a year ago, but the adjusted speed figure earned ain her last outing will put her smack dab in the middle of things today. Note an improved apprentice in the irons. #1 BARONESS BOURBON goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon, & is another who's finest efforts have come over this oval.
| Race 4 | 1st -Points Is Points | 2nd -Brown Suga Babe | 3rd -Gold Lightning |
#4 POINTS IS POINTS showed a bit of improvement when making her second start off the layoff on 1/11, and after encountering some trouble that day, switches to a rider who has done some nice work for this outfit. From a DRF Formulator point of view, shedrow is 6 of 10 with optional sand stock who hit the board less than 38 days ago, going two turns for the first time, and there is a positive R.O.I. for that study. #5 BROWN SUGA BABE came out of the gate last time out like a drunken sailor in the same race as the above, effectively losing all shot. Filly was doing some fine work just before that, and deserves a chance to make amends. #1 GOLD LIGHTNING goes over the main for the first time this afternoon ( or any other afternoon for that matter ) and given the Tomlinson figure for such is just as good as that of her turf efforts, we can see the potential for a solid effort here, especially as she did quite well the only time she was in a second off the bench engagement.
| Race 5 | 1st - Yo Daddy | 2nd -Tabeguache | 3rd -Classic Catch |
#3 YO DADDY was dead game in scoring at the level just below this when last an action, giving him his second Tally from his last three outings. He cut into a crisp second quarter that day, and could fare even better if able to be involved in an unpressured pace. Mild choice in a race with no first draft tosses. #1 TABEGUACHE bested only one horse and the chase ambulance when tossed into some deep waters at the end of 2024, and as he won this race just before that, how can we dismiss? Recognize that is schnoz shy of being two for three when going 2x to 1x. #2 CLASSIC CATCH has been beset by back-to-back off lines, but owns a touch of back class, and the Toddster enlists the services of a pilot who tries hard for all placings. As a matter of fact, Civaci is this one's 13th different helmsman in 16 starts to date.
| Race 6 | 1st -Natural Harbor | 2nd -Commerce Comet | 3rd -Legal Deal |
#1 NATURAL HARBOR has always been a check earning fool throughout his working life, as he's missed the superfecta just three times in his 17 race career, and that includes one event when he was vanned off and disappeared for 7 months afterwards. 5YO is a consistent 7:2-2-2 at The Big A, and exits of race where five returnees came back to ring up a 5:2-1-0-1 mark in their next outings. #5 COMMERCE COMET finished ahead of the above in the aforementioned affair but we'll flip them today, as our top selection gets a more favorable slot. #2 LEGAL DEAL had his third consecutive claim voided last time out, so right off the bat it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups. That being said, he is aggressively moved up the ladder off that score, and the one who placed directly behind him was photogenic when next in action improving in the BSF area by seven points.
| Race 7 | 1st -Mill Rock | 2nd -True Connection | 3rd -Taparino |
#1 MILL ROCK has put forth back to back solid showings in his last pair, with one of them coming at 45-1. We like when a trainer shows confidence in making an equipment or medication change after a strong effort, and the blinkers have now been left in the tack room. This one just may sit a sweet trip. #5 TRUE CONNECTION has done some fairly steady work throughout his career, and is halved in price today while having eye cups affixed for the first time. #6 TAPARINO was a snappy runnerup right here 18 days in the rear, but we absolutely have to leave beneath as Jena Antonucci is a cryogenic Oh-for-103 over the last half'a year, with but one win in her last 142 starts.
Aqueduct : 41-168( $331.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-8( 25% ) Favorite's Win % : 60-168 ( 35.7% )( As of Thursday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
