2/2 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

So so day for us here yesterday, with a $144 Triple Box, $25 Ice Cold Exacta, $72 Exacta Reverse, a $9 cold Quinella, and one winner, as we maintain our positive return on investment for the meet.

---

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - Short Shift

---

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.  Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!

#5 ACTIVE DUTY made his first start for new barn a winning one, as this at the time six year old maiden got up in the final strides to best maiden platers. Back in the day, they wouldn't even allow horses like that on the grounds, but at least with this one, he had shown some prior form with 10 super effective finishes in 16 races. Gelding is facing no world beaters now, and draws the outside, from which he's posted a couple of decent adjusted figures. Mild choice in an opener with no first draft eliminations. #2 GUM ISLAND faded in his secondary two turn deal, and now cuts back for today's third start off the bench. He's been out of form over his last quartet, so while we will be using, it's with a touch of trepidation. #3 IVIE MAN sheds a whopping 10 lb.'s this afternoon, and may spice things up a touch beneath.

Both the #1 BERNIE GOES BOOM ( Getting Lasix for the first time while finding himself at his lowest level to date ) and the #1A DANMAGE ( who is making his second start on a good surface while in receipt of the miracle drug for the second time ) comprise decent factions of the Miceli entry. #5 WELL SUITED has shown absolutely zippo in his last pair, but makes his third start off the respite, and it's encouraging to see the pilot stick around. #3 BELMONT UNION is entered at the price for which he was bought 15 months ago, so given expenses since that time, and as the connections merely stand to break even or lose a couple of dollars should a win & a claim ensue today, it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups. Recognize that the two siblings to try the dirt both hit the board the first time in doing such, and could grab a piece, despite Chatterpaul having just one win with his last 52 starters, and also being oh for six with first time starters over the last 5 years.

#3 RETURN THE RING hasn't faced the starter in nearly a year, and makes his return to the races at his lowest level yet, while returning sans tes-tee-klees. In the good news department, his finest work has come in Ozone Park, and he owns a 4:1-1-1 record off a break in the action. Note that the pre layoff pilot returns, which is something we always like to see. #6 JAKE ROCKS is still cashing checks in what will be his last year on this circuit, and warhorse now drops down to the level claimed from two back, while getting precipitous improvement in the irons. #4 CHALKY CAT burned some bread when finishing in the back half of the pack last out, and had a claim voided that afternoon, so you would be wise to take a gander at this one in the paddock. That being said, the last affair has proven to be a key one, as six comebackers have gone 3:1-1-1 in four sui generis races.

#6 ALLOFASUDDENLEE played the fade with no palpable reason in a similar spot last out, and now has blinkers added in an effort to get back to the good form shown just prior, for today's second start on a glib surface. From a DRF Formulator point of view, barn is 5:4-1-0 with dirt stock off breaks of 54 days, w/ an ROI of $6.36. #5 ALBEDO has completed the triple in three of his last four afternoon treks to the frontside, and Serpe is four of nine with dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta less than a month ago who are getting the "Big L" at 11-1 or beneath. The winners for that study came back $11, $3, $8, and $7, and this gelding and can do with some pace to cut into. #3 FAST AMENDMENT takes the biggest drop in the game today, and should do well with the tidier onset.

#6 FLAT OUT FLYING was a visually impressive victor versus slightly weaker 23 days in the rear, and you simply have to love this one's career declining mark of 61:20-15-11. Repeat is well within reach, especially when we see that the shedrow is 8 of 18 with locally based mid-level dirt stock who scored less than 46 days in the rear at 5-1 or beneath. #3 STREET SWAGG was a handy winner versus conditional platers on National Hangover Day, and has hit the board in two or three starts when going 2x to 1x. #2 HIGH TIDE is one of three in second off the layoff deals, and one for four one going two turns to one. Chance to rebound a bit. 61:20-15-11. 

#1 QUICK HAMMER posted a monstrous Beyer when winning by a pole for a dime three weeks ago, and while a bounces always possible off of a performance like that, we see a repeat as being well within reach, despite the hike in class. #6 G T FIVE HUNDRED was a dead game and well clear runnerup at this level 16 days back, and it's interesting that Franco chooses this one over our top choice. Recognize the 4 of 12 mark at today's distance of ground which stands out in stark comparison to the 1-13 ledger otherwise. #5 DEVIL'S CAY comes in today off of back to back lifetime best figs, and is tough to dismiss.

#2 SCAT TU TAP came along honestly enough to pick up 12% of the pot in an identical placement last Friday, and did such at a robust 22-1 offering. Mild choice in a race that's difficult to hug. #7 WAITLIST only bested one horse and the chase ambulance when returning off nearly a three month freshening, but there was no scary drop, and we see that he hung up a career best number the only time he went from two turns to one. #3 MELT WITH YOU completed the tri the only time he switched from "blinkers off to blinkers on", and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon while owning a nice boxscore at the trip.

Aqueduct : 38-160( $320.30 )   Beatable Favorites: 2-7 ( 28.5% )  Favorite's Win % : 55-160 ( 34.2% )( As of Sunday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout