Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #6 Our Liberty Belle
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Lady Wisdom | 2nd -Knicknnack | 3rd -Aibell |
These three are no more to start out the week for us here. You can draw an upwards arrow alongside the dirt speed figures of #6 LADY WISDOM, as this miss has done nothing but improve with each passing sand start. Gal was a gamely runnerup in this race on the 5th of the month, and gets the miracle drug for the first time while drawing outside. That last part is of some relevance, as she nearly shocked the world when breaking from the 10 hole three starts back, in placing directly in front of a next out victress @ 39-1. According to DRF Formulator, Morey is 6 of 10 with maiden special weight dirt stock who crashed the fiesta 20-49 days in the rear, that are getting the Big L. The ROI for that study is $3.98, and she doesn't appear to be facing any world beaters here. #1 KNICKKNACK went for more than three times the 30k stud fee up in Saratoga a year and a half ago, and boasts the best Tomlinson figure in the group. #5 AIBELL outran her odds quite nicely when completing the super at 80-1 in the turf debut back in November, and did such despite getting smacked around at the onset. Not quite sure she's better bred for this surface, but we'll toss in as the rider got home a $36 winner for us on Saturday. NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Tra Lad | 2nd - Forward Move | 3rd -Waralo |
#4 TRA LAD finished up the track when returning off on elongated absence 19 days ago, but chestnut chap has done okay in second off the layoff spots, and jockey/trainer combination have done nicely together. Factor in a sweet declining mark of 12:5-3-0 at today's distance fof ground, and you have more than enough reason to give this fella a chance to make amends. #1 FORWARD MOVE immolated some baccala when getting roughed up a bit at the start last time out, but completed the triple at 9-1 the only time he returned off an absence, and on the whole, has done okay in Ozone Park. #5 WARALO hasn't been seen in more than nine flips of the calendar, but owns a win and a showing in three starts after being MIA, with that latteremost effort coming beneath today's pilot. NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Whistler's Style | 2nd -Kiss Me Hardy | 3rd -Patty Cakes |
| Race 4 | 1st -Six Kings | 2nd -D Day Sky | 3rd - First Trumpet |
We are not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly. #4 SIX KINGS returned off a bit of a freshening to put forth a flat performance versus slightly tougher, and is now dropped a couple of pegs for the second off the bench try. Like we alluded to, meek selection. #6 D DAY SKY has hit the board in his last pair, and goes from an apprentice to a capable journeyman, while drawing the outside. That last part is important, as he's amassed a win, a placing, and a showing in three starts when last to load. #5 FIRST TRUMPET is back at a more palatable level after getting beaten up in his first try against winners, and can land a share versus these. NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -D's a Rock | 2nd -Rozzyroo | 3rd -Double Airo |
These three should do the trick for today's fifth race. #1 D'S A ROCK gets some class relief this afternoon, and went all the way the only time she was made available for purchase. Filly slides in seven slots, while dropping 5 lb.'s, and just may sit a perfect trip. #2 ROZZYROO went coast to coast like butter and toast when beginning her working life on 1/1, and the 434 Tommy for today's distance of ground tells us that there is ample room for improvement. #5 DOUBLE AIRO immolated some baccala when showing in a state bred stakes event at Philadelphia Park last out, & rates a chance of able to get back to the start prior to that, while making her first attempt on a fast strip today. NOTE: AS OF 5:22 P.M. TUESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 6 | 1st -Elliptic | 2nd -Kantarmaci entry | 3rd -Kara Para |
#4 ELLIPTIC had her three race winning streak snapped when fading against optional competition right here on the 2nd of the month, and as she has more than outperformed her expectations off the claim, is dropped in for a quarter in hopes of securing one final pot before changing hands. Gal does her best work in Queens, and is three or four beneath today's pilot. Both the #1 GONE AND FORGOTTEN ( 12 for 37 lifetime ) and the #1A MOSIENKO ( 10 of 14 in the exacta right here ) comprise decent factions of the Kantarmaci entry. The #2 KARA PARA returned off an extended respite to finish in the back half of the pack last out, but as she found the line first and he only second off the layoff try, we'll incorporate.
| Race 7 | 1st -Graywing | 2nd -Cees Get Degrees | 3rd -War Stride |
#6 GRAYWING has always been a fairly consistent sort, as this gray gelding has been a part of the super in 20 of his last 21 starts, and 16 straight. 7YO went all the way versus cheaper last time out, and we'll give her a timid nod in a difficult race to decipher. #1 CEES GET DEGREES has been kept in jail since the snag on the 14th of December, and returns right back in then identical spot while going from an apprentice to a vet this afternoon. You have to dig the 4 of 10 win rate in the zip code. #5 WAR STRIDE has won three of his last four, and can't fold those taking a favorable view despite the placement in open company. NOTE: AS OF 5:26 P.M. TUESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 8 | 1st -Unlimitedpotential | 2nd -Giroovin | 3rd -Charging Aero |
#6 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL played the fade when spotted in a stakes event right here on the 29th of December, but was a going away victor in the heat just before that, and has gone all the way in one of two third off the L/O spots. Six year old "horse' still has unlimited potential in procreating, as he's maintained all his parts thus far, and just may prove to have been a decent claim for this barn. #2 GIROOVIN has scored in two of his last three, with the lone blemish being a third place finish at 50-1. Must be left in the mix and should be no worse than second for all you place punteres out there. #5 CHARGING AERO closes out the tri.
Aqueduct : 32-135( $284.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-5 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win % : 45-135 ( 33.3% )( As of Thursday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
