2/1 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Just a couple of chalky winners for us here yesterday, but they were supported by six Exacta Boxes ( $8 x 2, $16, $33, $19 & $14 ), two Quinella Boxes ( $4 & $11 ), five Rolling Doubles ( $10, $47, $44, $30 & $21 ), four Rolling Pick Threes ( $70, $108, $169 & $44 ), and a $464 Rolling Pick Four.

Nonetheless, we maintain our flat bet profit for the meet. 

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #6 Captain Cook

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.  Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!

#4 HOWLING WIND finished in the back half of the pack when facing winners for the first time, but that's never an easy spot, and she only regressed by a couple of points in the speed figure department. Lasix is now a part of the makeup, and Jimmy Ferraro more than quadruples his normative batting average with locally based optional dirt stock getting said medication, off breaks of a month or less. The winners for that study came back $13, $9, and $5 X 2, and we would not be surprised to see a rebound. #5 LOTTIE MARGARET won by a country mile when catching a good surface for the first time, but a bounce is always possible in a second time equipment change ( blinks were added last out ), so we'll keep this one beneath. #1 NINA KAY has the best collection of speed figures in the group, and must be left in the mix.

#1 OUTSOURCE closed nicely to pick up 12% of the pot in this race two fortnights back, and sheds 5 lb.'s today, while picking up blinkers and the miracle drug. From a trainer stat point of view, this outfit is on a 5 fer 7 run w/locally based dirt stock at this level, off brakes of 6-50 days, who are in receipt of the miracle drug. The ROI for that sampling is $3.40, and he should sit a snug trip. #2 ASSET MANAGEMENT how's outran his odds quite nicely in the last pair, being a part of the superfacta in both. He is another one getting the Big L, and also gets some improvement in the stirrups. #4 ISLAND CHARLIE showed decent early hoof when debuting on 1/4, and should show improvement with that under his girthstrap.

We are not really feeling the joy here, so tread lightly. #5 HOLLYWOOD BEAUTY returned off a bit of a freshening to win in going away fashion while making her first start for a new outfit, and posted what was by far the best Beyer of her career. Obviously a regression is always possible with an effort like that, but will pin our hopes in thinking that the light bulb has come on here. Encouraging to see Sanchez come in for the mount. #2 OURDAYDREAMINGGIRL has yet to finish out of the superfecta to date, and Bobblehead climbs aboard, as he has returned from what many believed to be a way too short suspension for an egregious action a couple of months back. #4 MOONLIT DRIVE got up in time at 17-1 to procure the sheepskin in the January 10th lidlifter, and the 401 Tomlinson tells us that there is ample room for improvement.  NOTE: AS OF 4:42 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

This is another affair that we're simply not digging. #3 R FUNNY BIZNESS has hit the super in her last troika, and we like that she finds a conditional spot for today's second start off the purchase, while getting off the rail a bit. #2 FLAG WOMAN hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but owns a win and a placing in as many dirt deals off of hibernation, and finds herself at her lowest level to date while securing a jock who has opened our eyes here thus far. #1 POSEIDON'S MIST was eased in the most recent, but we've made money with these sort of animals in the past as quite often they can be overlooked parimutually more than they should be. She's another one at depths yet seen, and deserves another shot.  NOTE: AS OF 11:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#6 ROYAL EVENT hasn't shown much in either start to date, but had an excuse in the debut, and was a touch green in the followup. She now runs without blinkers for the first time, and drops a few pegs for today's second start with Lasix. Jockey/Trainer combination are four of seven with locally based dirt dashers who are available for purchase, at 18-1 or beneath ( non firsters ), and there was a solid return on investment for that study. #5 DYNAMITENDIAMONDS drops for the second straight time today, and gets juice for the first time. #1 BROKEN ZIPPER begins her working life this afternoon, and five of six upstairs members of the family tree got their initial tally within the first three starts.

This year's rendition of the Toboggan ( a former British racehorse who sired the dam of Citation, and who's history can be found right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toboggan_(horse) ) is a highly competitive one, and we'll make the #2 FULL MOON MADNESS a slight selection. Gelding enters today off a lifetime best numero, and was a going away winner the only time he was in a third off the bench engagement. The 7:3-2-0 mark at the Big A stands out quite favorably against his 3:0-0-2 record in other events, and he has done decent work since being paired up with today's pilot. #5 RUNNINSONOFAGUN has been camera shy for the last 2 years and 2 months, but has a propensity for cashing checks and seems like a quintessential unders candidate. #1 MAXIMUS MERIDIUS went all the way in a similar spot on the 28th of December, and outran his odds nicely when placing a 10-1 in his only fast track try when breaking from the inside.  

#2 SURFSIDE MOON has gone 40-51-63 in his three sand starts to date, and as they were interspersed with two turf tries ( which also had an upwards arrow alongside of them ), and before a layoff line, there may be some nice value here with a runner whose ceiling may have yet been achieved. Former Steeplechase jockey likely knows a thing or two about getting some distance out of his horses, and enlists the services of a hot pilot for today's dive into some deep waters. #5 MO QUALITY has never finished worse than second, and that includes a hard trying placing directly in front of a next out victor, when going two turns for the first time. Totally logical. #3 CORVUS has done nothing but improve with each passing start, and that's enough reason to include.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 CAPTAIN COOK

#2 SUNDAY GIRL has done some nice work since starting things out nearly a year ago, as there has been but one clunker in six starts to date. She rapidly went through her New York Bred conditions, and has already handled open foes quite nicely. She loves the strip, digs the trip, and good guy Duggan is a perfect four of four with locally based optional dirt critters who scored 20-42 days in the past, that are beneath the 7-1 watermark. She can send or wait and does well with Kate! #5 EVERYONELOVESLINDA has been kept in jail since the 12/12 snag, and returns back at that same level while shedding a whopping nine pounds in the process. Gal is another one who digs the zip code, and four returnees from the last have since amassed a cumulative 4:2-0-1-1 mark, and could show some improvement here. #1 SHESALITTLE EDGY has the sort of declining mark that we love to see at the trip, of 15:7-3-1, and they just may have to grab this 8-year-old by the tail to get the glory.

Backers of #4 HELIUM have seen their money float away in this one's last quintet, as he's failed to finish in the first half of each field, and four of those events were at 6-1 or beneath. In the good news department today, he's hit the board and all three third off the layoff engagements, and jockey/trainer combination do better together than apart. Meekest of choices. #8 BOLD VICTORY takes a sensible drop in class this afternoon, and gets an upgrade in the irons as well. He'll need to be a little bit closer to the pace, as he has become quite the laggard of late. #3 PORTOS has lost 29 consecutive races going back nearly four years, but still has a tendency to grab some minor checks, so we'll toss into the hopper.

Aqueduct : 37-151( $311.90 )   Beatable Favorites: 1-6 ( 16.7% )  Favorite's Win % : 52-151 ( 34.4% )( As of Saturday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout