Just a pair of chalky winners for us on Sunday's card, but we got our heart thumping a bit with a 35-1 top choice rallying nicely to place in the nitecap.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #5 Nina Kay
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Surveillance | 2nd -Clear the Air | 3rd -Light Man |
#5 SURVEILLANCE is confidently hiked up the ladder in his first start off the 11/24 snag, and grey gelding keeps the pre-claim pilot from that afternoon. Eight year old has done nice things at today's trip, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 60 months, this barn is 8:5-1-2 with freshly purchased, optional sand stock right here, off L/O's 43-49 days. The winners returned $13, $9 x 3, and $4. #2 CLEAR THE AIR hasn't been in action since winning on August 4th, but it's always encouraging to see a pre layoff pilot come back. That race has proven to be an exceptionally key race, has seven comebackers have amassed accumulative 4:1-0-2 record, improving in the speed figure department by 1.2 points. #1 LIGHT MAN has missed the money but one time in his nine race career, and that includes a victory the only time he was first to load. Fella excels beneath the seagulls, so must be left in a mix.
| Race 2 | 1st -Artemis Sound | 2nd -Looks First | 3rd -Shaman Princess |
#5 ARTEMIS SOUND is a quarter of a million dollar auction purchase who is dropped into the claiming ranks for the second time this afternoon, but it's worth noting that she fared quite well and her only dirt deal to date. The heat in which she exits has proven to be a key one, with nine returnees from eight separate races yielding three winners thus far. From a trainer is that point of view, TP rolls right along with mid-level dirt stock well of absences of 58-123 days, and is 7 of 14 with that sort. #3 LOOKS FIRST seems smartly spotted after breaking her maiden in wire to wire wire fashion on the 13th of December, and can't fault those taking a favorable view. #1 SHAMAN PRINCESS is reacquainted with blinkers for today's second start off the bench, and the only other time she went from "blinkers off to blinkers on", a dead game, 10-1 runnerup finish was the end result.
| Race 3 | 1st -Have You Heard | 2nd -Wake Surf | 3rd -Daufuskie Island |
#5 HAVE YOU HEARD hasn't shown much and either start off the layoff, but we dig that he found the line first in his only true third of the layoff attempt, and that occurred the last time he was made available for purchase, as well. From a trainer stat aspect, Maker doubles his normative 17% rate with dirt entrants at this level, who missed the money 30-50 days in the rear. He's three of nine with that sort, and we'll give this one a chance to make amends. #4 WAKE SURF is moved up the ladder despite being out of jail after the purchase two fornight's back, and get's some improvement in the stirrups as well. #2 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND has done okay when made available for purchase, but is a miserable oh fer 17 in Ozone Park. Mixed signals.
| Race 4 | 1st -King Phoenix | 2nd -Nine and Four | 3rd -One Vision |
Not really feeling the love here, so tread lightly. #1 KING PHOENIX played the fade when starting things out right around turkey time, & after being claimed from that event, has returned back at the same level while being in receipt of eye cups, and the miracle drug. Gelding slides in six slots as well, and note the crisp work tab on display for today's return. #5 NINE AND FOUR hasn't done much to get the heart pumping for today's lidlifter, but went for nearly 7x the stud fee at Ocala less than a year ago, and seems decently placed for the overture. #4 ONE VISION has fared okay and both starts on a fast track, and accomplished such against tougher competition. Would be no surprise versus these.
| Race 5 | 1st - Kolomio | 2nd -Quiet Wisdom | 3rd -Russian Realm |
#1 KOLOMIO got up in time to best slightly softer right here about a month back, and as Charlie loses the pilot from the win to Pletcher, you get some more than a capable replacement in Civaci. Mild edge here. #3 QUIET WISDOM has proven to be a bit of a disappointment so far, as this notorious money burner has lost his procreating abilities since last in action. While he must be included, it is with more than an ounce of trepidation. #5 RUSSIAN REALM has been a part of the triple in all his starts outside of stakes company, and can land a share once again off of the career best numero.
| Race 6 | 1st -Portos | 2nd -Castle Island | 3rd - Prince of Chill |
#2 PORTOS moves up the ladder off a decently clear runnerup versus softer on National Hangover Day, and historically, this fella has done okay in third off the layoff dirt deals. He's a notorious nibbler, so we'll make him the most tepid of selections. #6 CASTLE ISLAND returns at the level claimed after finishing in the back half of the pack on the 6th of December, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman in today's second off the bench engagement. #1 PRINCE OF CHILL is an extremely consistent sort who owns a win and a placing in three dirt routes.
| Race 7 | 1st -Quick to Accuse | 2nd -Laser Sharp | 3rd -Beaver State |
#7 QUICK TO ACCUSE has been a bit of a fragile sort, as this 5 year old has started but 13 times this far. That being said, he's one for two in second off the bench deals, and shedrow has an unblemished four of four record with Aqueduct based allowance dirt dashers ridden by today's pilot, off of sabbaticals of seven weeks or less. #2 LASER SHARP has been exactly that in all of his starts on the main track, as he's yet to finish out of the exacta, and that includes a tally the only time when breaking from the pine. #6 BEAVER STATE enters today off of back-to-back lifetime best #'s, but as front wraps were added in the most recent, it would behoove you to take a gander pre-race.
| Race 8 | 1st -Boston's Phinest | 2nd -Princess Mischief | 3rd -Valtellina |
Aqueduct : 10-41( $44.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win % : 15-41 ( 36.6% )( As of Thursday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
