Took it on the chin, yesterday, but we look to right the ship today !
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st-Leo's Reward | 2nd -D C Boy's | 3rd -Vitalize |
#3 LEO'S REWARD returned off an elongated sabbatical to pick up 12% of the pot at this level last Sunday, and now has blinkers added in hopes of having him a bit more forwardly placed this afternoon. Beware of the bounce, obviously, but Honk if you like Donk with maiden special weight sand stock who hit the board less than a fortnight back, as he's three or three with that sort ( $4, $6, and $3 ). #1 D C BOY'S has improved with each passing start, and slides in eight slots while shedding a pound for today's second start off the bench. From a DRF formulator perspective, Levine is four for nine with sand sprinters at this level who crashed the fiesta 18-49 days in the rear, and are in receipt of the wonder drug. #2 VITALIZE has ascended the Beyer scale and each passing dirt deal, and has blinkers affixed for the first time today.
| Race 2 | 1st -Twohonestmischief | 2nd -Just Licorice | 3rd -Chasing Colton |
#2 TWOHONESTMISCHIEF displayed a bit of a "Z" pattern at 97-1 when losing 3 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the half, before gaining a tad more than that amount from said to point to the finish line. The $15,000 earned that day, gave Jimmy Ferraro a career mark in earnings in his 47th year, as he now spots this homebred in a winnable spot. #5 JUST LICORICE is showing a bullet breeze for today's second start on the main, and like far too many runners this time of year, gets the "Big L" for the first time today. #6 CHASING COLTON takes the biggest drop in the game today back down to a level where he was a daylight clear runnerup three starts ago, and gets a bit of an upgrade in the irons as well.
| Race 3 | 1st - It Takes Heart | 2nd -April Antics | 3rd -Jolly Miss Jill |
#2 IT TAKES HEART has been kept in prison since being snagged on the 21st of November, and now drops 20% in class off of that fade job. This one is precipitously better on a fast track than one with moisture in it, so you can feel free to upgrade the number accordingly. Has goose eggs across the board at The Big A, however, so there are some mixed signals here. Nonetheless, should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #3 APRIL ANTICS is another one dropped in class off the purchase, and though the ol' grey mare has preferred the fringes throughout her career, gets back down to a wait of which she is 4:1-1-1 in her last quartet of toting such. #6 JOLLY MISS JILL has done okay at this trip and over this strip, and can land a share.
| Race 4 | 1st - Lottie Margaret | 2nd -Gabby's Legacy | 3rd -Aibell |
#1 LOTTIE MARGARET was a bit tardy to the party when getting her working papers on 11/22, but has eye cups slapped on for the first time in an attempt to have her break a bit quicker today. From a trainer stat point of view, this outfit is he perfect 7 fer 7 with second time starters at this level going short on the sand, off L/O's of 43-54 days, who are not getting Lasix and are 5-1 or beneath. Should appreciate the added ground. #3 GABBY'S LEGACY showed solid improvement when going over the dirt for the first time 22 days in the rear, and is another one getting the miracle drug today. #2 AIBELL outperformed her expectations quite nicely when completing the super at 80-1 in her turf debut, and did it despite getting roughed up early on in the game that day. We believe she actually may be better suited for the green than the brown, but definitely figures versus these, especially getting in light. NOTE: AS OF 11:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Limits of Power | 2nd -Walda | 3rd -Prairie Dunes |
These three should suffice for all our rolling action. #2 LIMITS OF POWER returned off a whopping 26 month hibernation to finish a troubled second at this level back in November, and $575,000 purchase can once again be yours for a double sawbuck. According to Formulator, TP wipes the competition clean with his maiden claiming dirt stock who hit the board more than 33 days ago, that are in receipt of Lasix. He is six of eight with that sort, owning an R.O.I. of $3.50. #3 WAJDA drops in class for the third straight time here, and must be left in the mix because of that, and the collection of speed figs. #7 PRAIRIE DUNES has lost his procreating abilities after a couple of poor performances, but owns enough decent running lines to be left in the mix
| Race 6 | 1st -Critical Threat | 2nd - Smile Mon | 3rd -Natural Harbor |
#6 CRITICAL THREAT returned after a two and a half month respite to grab the lead turning for home down in Kentucky, but then understandably faded a bit in finishing 4th. Lightly raced 7YO totes the lightest impost of his career today, and shedrow has won with all three dirt dashing optional stock and/or Aqueduct runners off absences of exactly 50 days. The winners came back $4, $5, and $6, and of course we love the sweet declining record this one has for his career, of 26:7-4-2. #2 SMILE MON has some nice early dash, and recently placed in a similar spot directly behind a next out winner. Jockey/Trainer combination do better together than apart, and they just may have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #1A NATURAL HARBOR is another zippy sort who could be tangling with our secondary selection early on, and has done well on the strip and at the strip.
| Race 7 | 1st -Kid's Last Laugh | 2nd -Golden Degree | 3rd - Equus |
#3 KID'S LAST LAUGH was a visually impressive victorious when facing A1X competition right here back in mid November, and this iss owns a win and a runnerup finish in her only third off the layoff engagements. Factor in that she is 3 for 6 beneath the seagulls ( 0-7 otherwise ) and you have the makings of a solid selection, despite the risk of a bounce off a career best effort. #4 GOLDEN DEGREE is on a 4:3-1 0 streak outside of stakes company, and they have all come right here in Queens. #2 EQUUS ( uncoupled entrymate with our secondary selection ) was a $21 winner the only time she went from two turns to one turn, and is claim protected today despite being out of jail after the November 14th purchase down in CD. NOTE: AS OF 11:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -My Royal Vow | 2nd -Dolce Sera | 3rd -Starry Midnight |
#10 MY ROYAL VOW was a so-so third place finisher versus easier competition up in Canandaigua County 40 days back, but as she's fared better over a good surface, we are willing to move her up a few points off of that performance. 18% boss man more than doubles that batting average when it comes to his mid-level dirt sprinters who crashed the fiesta 30-50 days ago, that are beneath the 15-1 watermark. Barrow is 15:6-3-3 with that type, owning a healthy return on investment of $2.49. #1 DOLCE SERA has put together back to back in the money finishes at healthy odds in her last pair, and although she's always preferred the fringes, note that one of her two victories came when first to load. #5 STARRY MIDNIGHT cuts back a quarter of a mile after fighting in and amongst others last out, and rates a shot if able to get back to the penultimate effort.
Aqueduct : 8-33( $35.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win % : 12-33 ( 36.4% )( As of Sunday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
