Just one winner on the day for us here yesterday, along with a $19 cold Exacta & a $22 Exacta reverse.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Wave | 2nd -Notmysteppingstone | 3rd -Kitty of War |
This threesome should do the trick for all our rolling action. #1 WAVE did just that to the entire field in the local debut, as 10 of 11 competitors got the best of her that day. In the good news department, gal catches a glib surface for the first time, while also being in receipt of the wonder drug now. Two come backers from that deal amassed a win and a showing in the same race, and this miss is backed by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 60 months, shedrow is 4:3-0-1 with second time dirsters who are getting the miracle drug for the first time, at odds of 27-1 or beneath. The winners came back $12, $6, and $5, and we're expecting an improved effort. #5 NOTMYSTEPPINGSTONE showed precipitous improvement second time out, and goes over a fast track for the second time, while also now getting the "Big L"; exits the same race as the above. #2 KITTY OF WAR has yet to finish out of the triple, and who are we to rock that boat?
| Race 2 | 1st -Aberdeen | 2nd -Heard On Thestreet | 3rd -Master of Arms |
#1 ABERDEEN is hiked up in class despite being out of jail after the December 6th claim, and this fellow was a nicely clear runnerup that day. Gelding gets a five slot improvement in the post position department while shedding a pound, and rates a slight edge. #3 HEARD ON THESTREET has hit the board in five of his last six outings, and can't fault those taking a favorable view while being hiked in class a bit. #6 MASTER OF ARMS has been a popular item at the claim box of late, as this one has had to leave a forwarding address after his last three outings. Fella faded a bit after a brief freshening, but will include because of the overall consistency.
| Race 3 | 1st -Winit | 2nd -Kinetic Sky | 3rd -Mazmak |
Another affair where our posted troika should do the trick. #4 WINIT was a dead game running up finisher in an identical placement on 11/24, and having been kept in jail after the purchase from that day, is brought right back at the same level. Pilot from the last tally returns to ride this afternoon, and grey guy is a solid show wager for those looking to grind out such a profit. #1 KINETIC SKY has been in absentia since the end of March, but best work has come beneath the seagulls, and his last two non stakes affairs prior to the respite ended in victories. #3 MAZMAK ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and as this barn has performed "miracles" since getting this one, we'd be silly to leave out.
| Race 4 | 1st -Spiritual Lady | 2nd -Poseidon's Mist | 3rd -Romantic Dancer |
#2 SPIRITUAL LADY was sent awfully hard by the bug in her first off the claim try for Jimmy Ferraro on the 1st of December, and understandably dropped anchor at the halfway point of the race. Filly goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon, and the aforementioned shot caller more than quintuples his normative 8% batting average with second off the snag female dirt critters who missed the baccala last out, and are 28-1 or beneath. The returns for that study came back a healthy $30, $31, $7, and $6, and this jockey/trainer tandem have done decently together. #1 POSEIDON'S MIST is reacquainted with blinkers this afternoon, and as both of her wins have come over a track label FST, we'll forgive the last a bit. #5 ROMATIC DANCER was aggressively claimed for half a C-note after winning and being bought for a double sawbuck in the start before that. Encouraging to see her claim protected despite being away for about a month and a half.
| Race 5 | 1st -Tap It Easy | 2nd -Let's Fight | 3rd -Powered By Coal |
This looks to be another deal where these three should be enough for our bets. #4 TAP IT EASY handled the switch from the turf to the main with aplomb at the end of November, as she was a snappy runner up that day while fighting the good fight along the way. We like when a trainer is confident enough to make an equipment or a medication change after a strong performance, and this barn adds blinkers and Lasix to the package. Looking good once again. #1 LET'S FIGHT outran his odds decently when completing the super @ 27-1 at first asking, and did it despite getting smacked around a bit at the onset. New face in town has done okay in the stirrups thus far, and this one may appreciate the added ground. #2 POWERED BY COAL hasn't done much to get the heart thumping yet, but the speed figures garnered are honest enough for a runner who seems to be improving with each start. Is better suited for the brown than the green, we believe, and returns getting Lasix.
| Race 6 | 1st -Trinity River | 2nd - Magni | 3rd -Sunday Gilt |
| Race 7 | 1st -Granadilla | 2nd -Fabulous Fox | 3rd -Ariana Rye |
#8 GRANADILLA overcame her nibbling ways when getting up late in the game to procure the sheepskin on the 22nd of November. We think she's a bit better suited for a fast track, than one with moisture in it, so you can upgrade the BSF a bit, and additionally, she improved by a few points the only time she was in a third of the layoff situation. From a trainer stat point of view, this barn is 5:4-1-0 with locally based dirt horses coming in off of maiden win that have "L" next to their weight. #1 FABULOUS FOX had her winning streak snapped when returning to the Big Apple, but we're assuaged by the fact that Dixon is 9 of 22 with female, allowance dirt runners who missed the bread 6-50 days in the rear, that are 24-1 or beneath. #5 ARIANA RYE has made every call a winning one in two of her last three engagements, with the loan blemish coming off of an absence of nearly 3 months.
| Race 8 | 1st -Mansetti | 2nd -Cyclone State | 3rd -Studlydoright |
We are not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly. #2 MANSETTI has won two or three outings thus far, and his only defeat came when failing to get the lead after getting roughed up a bit at the start. Blinkers were added in the most recent, and while his dirt pedigree isn't as good as that for the synthetic, the jockey/trainer combination are on an astounding 17 for 33 run together, and we'll lean his way. #6 CYCLONE STATE is just your prototypical Iowa bred going on the Triple Crown trail this afternoon, and why not, as he definitely seems to have figured things out over his last triad. Tougher waters here than the optional event 29 days back, & drawers nicely with a couple of closers outside of him, and should be able to get to or near the lead early on. #7 STUDLYDORIGHT cuts back from two turns to one here and would be no surprise if a nice pace duel develops up front.
| Race 9 | 1st -King Khali | 2nd -Arrebato | 3rd -King Moonracer |
#2 KING KHALI made every call a winning one when last seen up in Canandaigua County 53 days back, and while those were definitely cheaper, we love the substantial improvement with blinkers having been added for the first time. Obviously, a bounce is always possible off a strong effort in tandem w/an equipment change, but this one is supported by a strong Formulator start. Over the last 1,826 days, Papa Engelhart is three of three with dirt runners on this circuit off absences of 51-53 days, at 8-1 or undah. The winners for that survey were $7, $5, and $11, and there is a subcat of one for one with those coming in off of tally. #5 ARREBATO has done okay in Ozone Park, and gets a bit of an upgrade in the saddle here. #7 KING MOONRACER as good as any for the show dough.
Aqueduct : 8-24 ( $35.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win % : 9-24 ( 37.5% )( As of Saturday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
