Just about a breakeven Opening Day three bagger for us here yesterday ( along with a successful 'Beatable Favorite' ), as we've shown a cumulative flat bet profit over our last three cards.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Spirit Dragon | 2nd -Rockable | 3rd -Rockable |
#4 SPIRIT DRAGON makes his professional debut today, and right off the bat it's encouraging to see that this $2,500 bred animal went for 24x that amount at auction last year. There are several dazzling morning moves on display for this one, as in the three gate moves, there were 524 other workers those days, and he bested all but 18 of them. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Kimmel is 12:6-3-1-1 with dirsters on this circuit who are not wearing blinkers, or getting Lasix, at 8-1 or under. The winners for that study came back $11 x 2, $7, $5, $10, and $16. #1 ROCKABLE has finished in the back here for the pack in both starts to date, but drops for the second straight time, and is now in receipt of the wonder drug while retaining the pre layoff pilot. #6 REAL ELEVE has been kept in prison since the snag on 11/14, and now drops a third off the price from that day while drawing the outside.
| Race 2 | 1st -Smilensaycheese | 2nd -Sand Devil | 3rd -Buttah |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #6 SMILENSAYCHEESE ( who should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there ) has been a part of the superfecta in all his starts but one, draws ideally, and gets some improvement in the saddle. Slight edge. #1 SAND DEVIL was a convincing victor right out of the box on December 8th, but despite winning in going away fashion, is suddenly in need of the miracle drug in his second start. Anyhoo, colt is a factor once again. #3 BUTTAH gets some class relief after finishing off the board in his last pair, and is another one in receipt of the "Big L" for the first time.
| Race 3 | 1st -Neuschwanstein | 2nd -Devil's Cay | 3rd -Muazarah |
#2 NEUSCHWANSTEIN placed against slightly tougher right around turkey time, and as a matter of fact, that was the 11th time in 12 starts over a glib surface that he was a part of the super. From a Formulator point of view, Handal is 3 of 6 with locally based mid level sand stock who crashed the fiesta last out, at 5-1 or beneath. The ROI for that study is $2.86, but it would behoove you to take a gander pre race, as front wraps were added for the first time last out. #1 DEVIL'S CAY is a bit out of form of late, but has done decent work at today's distance of ground, and could land a share. #4 MUAZARAH is wheeled right back off a daylight win on Saturday, and while he must be respected off the career best figaro, a bounce is not out of the realm of possibility.
| Race 4 | 1st -Malu | 2nd -Elliptic | 3rd -Gone and Forgotten |
#2 MALU all the way. #3 ELLIPTIC shoots for the grand slam today, and given the lifetime best number posted in the most recent, we'd say it's quite feasible, despite the hike in class. #1 GONE AND FORGOTTEN gets some improvement in the stirrups this afternoon, and may grab a piece.
| Race 5 | 1st -Burn Rubber | 2nd - Break the Fall | 3rd -Solo Flight |
#7 BURN RUBBER didn't do much of that when going off as the favorite last time out, but the collection of speed figures on the whole fits with these, for sure. From a trainer stat aspect, Shedrow is 7: 4-1-2-1 with Aqueduct based dirt runners at this level that are ridden by this pilot, off sabbaticals of three fortnights or less. There's a near $3 ROI in that regards, and a subcategory of three for four with the ladies. #6 BREAK THE FALL hasn't been seen in nearly 8 months, but takes the biggest drop in the land today while getting in light. #1 SOLO FLIGHT gave a solid account of himself in the local bow, and has fared decently in his last troika when going one turn.
| Race 6 | 1st -Honorary Degree | 2nd -Air Show | 3rd -Quick Hammer |
#3 HONORARY DEGREE was a lively runnerup when moved up the ladder in his first start off the November claim, and is now dropped a tad in hopes of returning a quick profit for the new connections. Barn doubles their normative 20% batting average when it comes to their second off the claim Aqueduct based dirt entrants at this level, ( who were in the money less than 38 days ago and are guided by today's helmsman ). #6 AIR SHOW lost by only a honker in a near identical spot 20 days in the past, and when you factor that in with the crisp two of three mark at today's distance of ground, you have the makings of a sensible inclusion. #7 QUICK HAMMER completes the triad of runners we'll be using here, as despite the back-to-back layoff lines, has done his best work beneath the seagulls.
| Race 7 | 1st -St. Benedict's Prep | 2nd -Rachel's Rock | 3rd -Simply Stated |
Another event where our posted threesome should do the trick. #4 ST. BENEDICT'S PREP has been a part of the Exacta in 9 of 17 starts thus far, and will be led over by a trainer who is of 11 with optional dirt dashers right here, that were in the money 32-50 days in the past at 5-1 or beneath ( $3.71 return on investment ). Should be no worse than third for all you who like to make a small profit. #1 RACHEL'S ROCK is back where she belongs today, aftye finishing in the back half of the pack in her last two stakes tries. Mare owns a win and a showing from three starts when first to load, and got the job done the last time she was outside of stakes company. #5 SIMPLY STATED had a troubled trip in the comebacker, and deserves a chance to make amends.
| Race 8 | 1st -Mr. Swagger | 2nd -Pipes and Prums | 3rd -Because the Night |
#8 MR. SWAGGER was a going away winner against somewhat tougher back on the 15th of December, so what's not to like with a 2 lb. reduction in weights, and two slot improvement in the post positions ? #7 PIPES AND DRUMS hasn't been seen since being claimed out of a disappointing effort on the 1st of November, but owns a nice declining mark at today's trip, and has fired well fresh. #2 BECAUSE THE NIGHT finds himself at his lowest level yet, but has been a part of the super in boat starts off the bench, and pre layoff jock comes back, which is something we always like to see.
Aqueduct : 3-8 ( $14.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win % : 3-8 ( 37.5% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
