Happy New Year, everyone !
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #2 Earl of Dassel
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Rozzyroo | 2nd -Wildcat Annie | 3rd -Puttin in the Work |
#2 ROZZYROO gets her working papers this afternoon, and is entered for 25% less than the purchase price just six months ago. The good news though, is that this outfit is a crisp four of eight with first time "dirsters" at this level, while in receipt of the wonder drug @11-1 or under. The returns for that study are $5, $6, and $8 X 2, and of course, we dig the healthy 414 Tomlinson figure for today's distance. #6 WILDCAT ANNIE finished in the back half of the pack when starting things out in late October, but takes the biggest drop in the game today, and appears to be substantially better bred for the brown than the green. Big chance for improvement here. #3 PUTTIN IN THE WORK goes over a glib surface for the second time, and is as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 2 | 1st -Mr. Mendelssohn | 2nd - Eric from Miami | 3rd -Janssen |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 MR. MENDELSSOHN was a well beaten third place finisher in this race at the end of November, but the speed figure from that day eclipsed his only other sand start by more than 33%. Who knows where this one's ceiling is on the dirt just yet. #1 ERIC FROM MIAMI has never been entered this cheaply, but hit the board the only time he went from two turns to one, and in two other starts, had a win and a showing in second off the layoff deals. Toss in a triple completing finish in his only try when breaking from the inside, and there are definitely some things to like with this one. #6 JANSSEN was up the track when facing winners for the first time, but that's never an easy spot, and the BSF from that day replicated that from the maiden breaker a fortnight prior. Chance to make amends on today's drop down, while drawing the outside once again -- from which he was a gamely runnerup finisher in his only attempt. BEATABLE FAVOITE: #2 EARL OF DASSEL doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism ?
| Race 3 | 1st -Montauk Mystique | 2nd -Freud's Fancy | 3rd -Lucky and Gorgeous |
Another race where our listed troika should suffice. #1 MONTAUK MYSTIQUE returned off an elongated absence to pick up 12% of the pot at this level a month back, and right off the bat, should improve with that under her girthstrap, as well as drawing the inside for the first time. The loan returnee from that affair was victorious when next in action, improving by 15 points in the process. From a Formulator point of view, this barn is 3 for 10 with locally based mid level dirt stock who hit the board last time out at 9-1 or under. That survey is for female sprinters, and there is a subcategory of one for one with second off the layoff type. #4 FREUD'S FANCY didn't do much to get the heart thumping in both turf starts, but could perk up on the dropdown along with today's surface transition. #2 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS has cashed a fair amount of checks along the way, and can land a share once again, especially as she was in the money in her only start off a respite.
| Race 4 | 1st -Happy Henry | 2nd - Ignite the Light | 3rd -The Taco Lady |
#4 HAPPY HENRY split the field in his overture right here seven weeks back, and that race is looking to be a key one, as four returnees have since amassed a 4:2-1-0 cumulative mark, from three separate races, while improving by an average of 3.5 points per. Should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there. #5 IGNITE THE LIGHT has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but comes in off a career best effort. While he must be incorporated, a bounce is always possible off a performance like that. #2 THE TACO LADY has partaken in the superfecta in her last quintet, and could be sitting on a good one in today's third start off the bench. NOTE: AS OF 10:44, DUE TO TWO KEY LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-7-1.
| Race 5 | 1st -Fancy Azteca | 2nd -Play Good Pay Good | 3rd -Trade Secret |
Both the #5 FANCY AZTECA, and the #4 PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD are supported by identical DRF Formulator Statistics, which has this barn at 7 come 11 with Queens based mid level dirt stock who missed the board less than six weeks in the past, w/ a positive ROI for that study. We're going to side with the former, because of her solid mark over this oval, as well as having gotten the job done in her only second off the break deal ( when not being pulled up ). #2 TRADE SECRET has hit the board in eight straight engagements, and who are we to rock that boat? Toss in a couple of placings in her lone third off of a hibernation jammies, and you have the makings of a solid addition beneath a jock looking to make an impression here this winter. NOTE: AS OF 10:48, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 6 & 2B WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.
| Race 6 | 1st -Helium | 2nd -Street Swagg | 3rd -Ice Road |
Backers of #8 HELIUM have had an over inflated opinion of his capabilities over the last quartet, as he's only bested two over that time, with three of those tries coming at 6-1 or less. Despite this runner having anything but a Goodyear, shedrow is a whopping 10 of 22 with mid level dirt routers that are in second off the layoff situations, off breaks of 1-29 days. The return on investment for that study is $2.72, and there's a big time upgrade in the saddle today. #5 STREET SWAGG finds himself at an all time low, and did well beneath today's pilot at 15-1 two starts ago. #1 ICE ROAD beat similar type two starts back, and has done well when first to load. Would be no surprise.
| Race 7 | 1st -Furry Fox | 2nd -Central Casting | 3rd -Nilo's Rose |
We're not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly. #6 FURRY FOX went coast to coast like butter and toast when procuring the sheepskin on the drop down 41 days in the rear, and while she may have appreciated the class relief, layoff, blinkers, or any combination of those, sometimes when the light bulb comes on it can stay on for a while. Mild choice. #7 CENTRAL CASTING is another who made every call of winning one to break through the maiden ranks at the end of November, and as she's done nothing but improve over each start, we see no reason to dismiss. #4 NILO'S ROSE like so many 3yr. olds on January 1st, is not so surprisingly in sudden need of getting the miracle drug --and in this case, has such administered for the first time despite a convincing win. Pre layoff pilot returns, and four comebackers from that deal have rung up two wins and placing from three sui generis races. Obvious factor if sound and fully cranked up. NOTE: AS OF 10:52, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 2 & 8 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.
| Race 8 | 1st -Rodeo Star | 2nd -Honey in the Bank | 3rd - I Heard Some Things |
#8 RODEO STAR hasn't shown a whole heck of a lot thus far, but makes her first start at this level on a fast track, and is another one getting the "Big L". We've had luck with Coa in the past, and will give him a shot here. #7 HONEY IN THE BANK slides down a couple of pegs and was a bit more forwardly placed early on in the most recent. #6 I HEARD SOME THINGS gave a good account of himself when going over a glib surface for the first time 20 days back, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here.
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
