Profitable Hat Trick for us here yesterday, and a $26 cold Exacta as well.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #6 Gum Island Race 6 - #2 Backstretch Rose ( NOTE: AS OF 12:19, THIS IS NOT A BEATABLE FAVORITE ) Race 7 - #10 Classic Legacy ( NOTE: AS OF 12:23, THIS IS NOT A BEATABLE FAVORITE )
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Ain't Broke | 2nd -Khali Magic | 3rd -Willow Bend |
We start out the closing day of the meet with three solid sets of DRF Formulator statistics ( an excellent platform, by the way ) so let's get right to them. #4 AIN'T BROKE ( who won his only second off the layoff try on a glib surface ) will be brought over by a trainer who is 5 of 11 with locally based optional sand stock written by Cancel in second off the layoff dirt dashes off breaks of 8-29 days. The return on investment for that survey is $3.25, and we dig the declining mark of 7:3-2-1 at the Big A. #3 KHALI MAGIC has been a part of the superfecta in two or three starts since being claimed by Jimmy Ferraro ( who's having one of the best years in his 47 year career and right off the bat, we like that this one is still claim protected. From a trainer stat point of view, barn is 11:5-1-1-3 with optional dirt entrants off L/O's of 29-48 days, @ 21-1 or beneath. The payoffs were $21, $5, $31, $8, and $28, and as this one was cross entered on Friday, it would behoove you to check the changes. #5 WILLOW BEND ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) is conditioned by someone who is 8 for 21 with optional female sand sprinters who won their last, and the return on investment in that regards is $2.30. NOTE: AS OF 11:12, DIE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Humstinger | 2nd -Omey Island | 3rd -Shore Time |
#7 HUMSTINGER was a bit tardy to the party first time out, but ended up being a dead game and well clear runner up nonetheless. Son of 'Bee In the Bonnet' ( "Well, who put the bee in your bonnet?" ) Is eligible to fare even better with a better post, despite the hike in class. #1 OMEY ISLAND ( located in Ireland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omey_Island ) hasn't been seen since the first of June and has lost his procreating abilities since last in action. Barn does well when being handed a critter, but as they are a bit subpar with those returning off elongated absences, we'll keep beneath. #3 SHORE TIME is another one who's been In absentia for a while, but his career best adjusted figaro came in one of his two starts on a fast track, and could make some noise if sound and fully cranked up.
| Race 3 | 1st -Awesome Roberta | 2nd -Higher Force | 3rd - Amelia |
#2 AWESOME ROBERTA has improved with each passing start, culminating with a nicely clear runnerup finish right here at the end of November. Slight edge. #5 HIGHER FORCE was pretty disappointing with no palpable excuse last time out, but now takes the biggest drop in the game while having blinkers affixed for the first time. Chance to rebound in her second start on a track labeled FST. #1 AMELIA was flying on the front end in the transition to the sod on 11/2, but was nowhere to be found late in the game that day. Gal is another one dropping in class, and deserves a chance in this spot.
| Race 4 | 1st -Deputy Connect | 2nd -Wine Responsibly | 3rd -Final Denile |
#7 DEPUTY CONNECT bested half the field when returning off a half a calendar hibernation, and although he's been a nibbler by route, recognize that his only victory came in a second off the layoff attempt. Slimmest of margins in a race that's difficult to embrace. #8 WINE RESPONSIBLY showed in this race seven weeks in the rear, and draws ideally in the second off the claim attempt, while toting the lightest in post of his working life. #5 FINAL DENILE has been kept in jail since being snagged on the first of the month, and gets some improvement in the stirrups visit today's return back at the same level. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 GUM ISLAND NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-7-8.
| Race 5 | 1st -Early On | 2nd -Midnight Love Affair | 3rd -Melancia |
#1 EARLY ON hasn't faced the starter in nearly four months, but don't fret too much, as he's only missed half of that time off the work tab. That being said, barn is a sensational 10:9-1-0 with maiden claiming fillies that have already faced the starter, and are NOT in receipt of the miracle drug. There is a positive R.O.I. for that survey, and gal draws snugly. #5 MIDNIGHT LOVE AFFAIR finished in the back half of the pack at boxcar odds first time out, but the number came back okay, and the pedigree tells us this one is eligible to improve in switching to the brown. Dropdown can only help the cause. #3 MELANCIA rounds out the top three.
| Race 6 | 1st -La Vita Sophia | 2nd - Dazzy | 3rd -Thirteen Red Flags |
#5 LA VITA SOPHIA missed by only a neck versus slightly softer last time out, and grey gal cuts back to one turn this afternoon while securing a jockey who has done decent things for this outfit. This miss owns a win and a placing in both two turn to one turn engagements, and could be coming late with any pace to cut into. #1 DAZZY has been a part of the triple in her last six outings when going one turn, and has done okay in Ozone Park, as well. Toss in two in the money finishes from as many 2x to 1X deals, and you have the makings of a sensible conclusion. #6 THIRTEEN RED FLAGS hit the board in both starts since returning off a respite, and her finest work has come beneath the seagulls. NOTE: AS OF 1:41 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS, AND THE #2 BACKSTRETCH ROSE IS A BEATABLE FAVORITE.
| Race 7 | 1st -Monday Morning Qb | 2nd -General Banker | 3rd -Awesome Native |
#5 MONDAY MORNING QB is in some excellent form these days, as this brown fella is but a length and a half short of shooting for his fifth consecutive victory today. We always like a reduction in weights off of victory, and today's 7 lb. reduction is duly noted. Additionally, the 5-8 mark at today's distance of ground positively leaps off the page. What else can be said about #2 GENERAL BANKER that hasn't already been said. This gutsy $7,500 homebred has been perfectly handled by Ferraro over the last few years, including being a potential placing away from an entry in the Kentucky Derby. 24:4-6-4-2 overall ledger tells you how hard he tries, and colt eclipses the $700,000 mark with a runnerup finish here. Chances are good. #4 AWESOME NATIVE has been playing musical barns for his last four starts stretched out over more than a year, but soon to be 6 year old "horse" ( We think it's 'awesome' that you still have all your original parts, buddy boy! ) tries hard every time, and has a nice declining mark over this oval. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 CLASSIC LEGACY doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 7/2 ? NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-4-10.
| Race 8 | 1st -Tabeguache | 2nd -Masmak | 3rd -Quality Chic |
#11 TABEGUACHE got up in time to best optional foes on the 24th of November, and we feel today's outside placement suits his running style quite nicely. Consistent type rates the meekest selections in a feature with no first draft tosses. #1 MASMAK shoots for the hat trick today, and given the ascension in the BSF department last time out, we're seeing it as quite feasible. The only thing keeping this one from being a top choice, are the two poor showings when making a second left. #5 QUALITY CHIC is two for four when going one turn to two, and has been in the exacta half of the time at the Big A. NOTE: AS OF 12:24, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 7 & 4 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.
| Race 9 | 1st -Digital Currency | 2nd - Mia Nipotina | 3rd -My Angel |
#10 DIGITAL CURRENCY only bested one horse and the chase ambulance in her comebacker, but sheds some tonnage in today's second start after being away, and as we go anywhere in a maiden's past performances to find something positive ( as they're maidens for a reason, ya know ) we see that the debut yielded an adjusted numero of 55.5. Price play in the years' finale. #7 MIA NIPOTIMA is an extremely consistent gal who hasn't finished out of the super in her last octet. Should be in the thick of things once again. #1 MY ANGEL closes out our race, meet, day, week, month, and year. We thank all of our readers at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Yonkers Raceway, and Capital OTB for your continued support and loyalty throughout the year -- and years. Have the most wonderful -- and most importantly -- safe New Year's Eve. See you on the flip side ! NOTE: AS OF 12:31, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-2-4.
Aqueduct Fall: ( Final ) 47-229 ( $302.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 6-12 ( 50% ) Favorite's Win %: 82-229 ( 35.8% )
Aqueduct Fall: ( Final ) 53-286 ( $350 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 95-286 ( 33.3% )
Saratoga Summer ( Final ): 85-410 ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-17 ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 136-410 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
