12/28 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Just one chalky winner for us here yesterday, along with a Beatable favorite, and three Rolling Doubles of $124, $25 & $9.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #13(AE) Naive Melody ( NOTE: AS OF 11:03, THIS IS NOT A BEATABLE FAVORITE )

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.  Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!

We are going to blast off today's big card with the ol' 3...2...1...triple. #3 CAPTAIN COOK had a troubled onset to his career down in Louisville two months ago, but despite the logjam, he was still able to hang up a decent number that day. The 405 Tommy tells us there's ample room for improvement, and as this one went for more than six times the stud fee at auction, he's obviously well meant. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Dutrow is six of seven with dirt dashers not getting the miracle drug off absences of 53-83 days, at 7-1 or under. There are separate subcategories of one for one with those at this level, and one for one with Franco in the irons, and the ROI for that study is an even five bucks. #2 ATLAL showed marked improvement when going over a glib surface second time out, and the one who finished directly behind him that day returned victorious, improving in the BSF department by approximately 5.2%. #1 NOD TO TRAN may offer some solid value here, as he put forth some decent efforts on the grass in all four starts, and is precipitously better bred for the brown stuff. Watch out.

#1 IRON MAN IRA went all the way to pick up the sheepskin right here on the first of the month, and sheds 3 lb.'s off of that effort while sliding in a slot. From a trainer stat point of view, this barn has an unblemished five for five record with locally based maiden breakers getting the "Big L", at 6-1 or undah. The return on investment for that sampling is $3.63, and there is a subcategory of 3 of 3 with those at this level. #4 SAINT GAUDENS hasn't been seen since a showing way back in early May but barn knows how to have them ready for the comebackers, and it's always encouraging to see the pre layoff pilot return. #3 TOMACON put forth an honest showing versus what we consider to be a tougher grouping the day after Thanksgiving, and must be left in the mix.  NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#5 TOXIC GRAY made every call a winning one when tangling with allowance foes back in mid December, and is aggressively spotted after back to back career best figaros. Wire job quite feasible once again. #3 RUNNINSONOFAGUN was a dead game and decently clear runner up in the Fallll Highweight at the end of November, and best work has come at this trip and over the strip. We're going to keep a beneath, however, as he's been a bit camera shy over his last ten starts. #4 MAXIMUS MERIDIUS has a nice amount of back class, and has done okay at the Big A. Could be rolling late with any pace to cut into.

#6 YORK TAVERN ( who should be no worse than third, for all you show grinders out there ) seems to lay over most of this grouping from a speed figure point of view, but has a tendency to burn bread at times, and while a sensible selection, it is with a touch of trepidation. #2 BROWN DON'T STOP finds himself at his lowest level today in his third start off the bench, and gets some improvement in the irons here. #3 RIDE UP hasn't been seen in a couple of Halloween's, but has been working well for the comebacker, and a note that his lone win has come @ today's distance of ground. Examine closely pre-race.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-3-4.

#9 MISS AMERICAN PIE ( By 'MacLean's Music'... you get it? As a matter of fact, the old rumor is that 'American Pie' was written on cocktail napkins in the Tin and Lint up at Saratoga, by Don MacLean.  He's refuted the story, but what the hell does he know! ) Gets her working papers this afternoon, and totes along a nice Tomlinson number of 405 for such. Four of the six upstairs members of the family tree scored at first asking, with a fifth getting her initial tally second time out. Could be any kind in a wide open deal. #3 BLUE EYED SCOUT has blinkers added after drifting out in the recent placing, and given the last two solid performances, we'd be remiss in excluding. #1 THREE NINES FINE has a best of 139 gate move on the ledger for today's overture, and that's something that always merits inclusion.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #13(AE) NAIVE MELODY doesn't make our primary cut, so why would we accept favoritism ?  NOTE: AS OF 11:03, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-13(AE)-3, WITH NO BEATABLE FAVORITE.

#10 CONFABULATION handled his first try against winners with aplomb, as he went coast to coast for the second consecutive time, improving in the Beyer area by four points in the process. That's something that's never easy to accomplish, and additionally, shedrow is four of eight w/ allowance dirt sprinters who scored 8-50 days in the past and are in receipt of lasix. The winners came back $5, $6, and $7 x 2, and there is a subcat of one for one with Joel aboard. #3 MINISTERIAL was a going away victor the only time he cut back from two turns to one, and also got the job done in his loan third off the bench engagement. Toss in that he's four of six beneath Johnny, and you have a lot of good stuff here. #9 LIBERTE DE BAYEAUX showed a bit of a different dimension when breaking totally last time out, but still managed to pick up 12% of the pot in a similar spot. Factor once again.

#10 SKYLANDER aims for the hat trick today, and we're seeing it as quite feasible given the miraculous ascension in speed figures since being claimed back in August. 5YO's 5 for 17 local ledger stands out quite well against his 1-15 mark at other venues, and we'll make this one a slight choice in an open event. #1 MAGNIFICENT MILE has partaken in the superfecta in his last nine events, and moves in seven slots off a bit of a rough trip last out. #11 VETTRIANO has won three straight deals outside of stakes company, with two of those coming off the shelf. Big shot.

#7 BANK FRENZY has been extremely consistent throughout his career, with his best work coming right here beneath the seagulls. Chestnut chap enters today off successive career best figs, and is supported by a solid trainer statistic. Over the last 60 months, Rudy has an unblemished 5 for 5 record with locally based ungraded sand sprinters who scored 17-40 days in the rear, with the winners coming back a healthy $10, $24, $5, $3, and $6. #3 EL GRANDE O has gone back to back after returning from a lengthy sabbatical, and you have to love the overall declining record of 8:4-2-1 in Ozone Park. #4 NEURAL NETWORK got the job done in his only local start on a good surface, and is as good as any for the show dough.  NOTE: AS OF 11:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#2 DANZIGER has only bested two horses in as many starts to date, but had a disadvantageous post in the debut, and broke awkwardly in a tough Turf followup. That being said, $7,500 homebred seems properly spotted this afternoon, and has some things in his corner. This one is a half to a runner who broke his maiden in his third dirt start right here, is a half to a runner who showed in a 500K stakes event in his second dirt deal, at 36-1, and is a full to a present day turf runner ( Danzigwiththestars ) who is 5 of 25, having earned $346,000. When it comes to the first three dirt starts of five of the upstairs members of the family tree, two of them won two outings, and three of them one one event. In regard to his dirt stock not getting the wonder drug off breaks of less than 2 months, at 60-1 or beneath, ( outside of stakes company ) Schettino is a solid 4 of 10, with returns of $11, $6, $4, and $13. The more we type...  #3 RESISTENCE FUTILE drops for the second time in his last three outings, and rates a chance if able to get back to the penultimate effort. #9 ROMEO VOID is another one dropping in class, and gets the services of a pilot who secured this barn's sole win.

Aqueduct Fall: ( Current )                 41-211 ( $265.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 6-11   ( 54.9% ) Favorite's Win %:  75-211 ( 35.6% )( As of Saturday morning ) 

Aqueduct Fall: ( Final )                     53-286 ( $350 )      Beatable Favorites: 1-10    ( 10% )   Favorite's Win %:   95-286  ( 33.3% ) 

Saratoga Summer ( Final ):            85-410  ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites:  3-17  ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %:  136-410 ( 33.3% )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% )    Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring  ( Final ):                7-47      ( $31.20 )  Beatable Favorites: N/A                 Favorite's Win %: 19-47   ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct  Spring( Final ):                28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% )    Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% ) 

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):                85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4369-21328 ($36,148.90) +/-: -15.2% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 478-1799( 26.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 8176-21779( 37% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4399-21943 ( $37,099.40 ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.5% takeout