If the track turns out to be "fast" at some point today, our original dirt race selections remain in play ( over the amended choices, unless otherwise noted ). The amended "off the turf" selections stand no matter what.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Clara Belle | 2nd -Hold Hard | 3rd -Cibolian |
#4 CLARA BELLE went coast to coast like butter and toast when last seen down in Aiken more than four months back, and drops nine lb's. off of that convincing score. This isn't an extremely strong rendition of the Jonathan Kiser, so we'll give this one a slight edge. #1 HOLD HARD bested a next out winner the only time he came back off of an absence, and is also one for one beneath today's pilot. Obvious factor in shooting for the hat trick. #7 CIBOLIAN got the job done the only time he went from a flat race, to a jumping event, and could spice things up beneath.
| Race 2 | 1st -Will Not Be Swayed | 2nd -Thankfully | 3rd -Not Too Late |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #8 WILL NOT BE SWAYED was a gamely and daylight clear runner up when starting things out right here during opening week, and gal draws much better today, while toting along solid Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, this barn is 5 of 8 with second time starters in Saratoga at this level, who hit the board in their debuts and are not receiving the wonder drug. The return on investment for that study is $3.63, and it's for dirt sprinters only. Should be no worse than third for all your show grinders out there. #2 THANKFULLY is another one who gave a good account of herself when placing at first asking, and slides in eight slots this afternoon. #5 NOT TOO LATE came along decently to pick up 20% of the pot in Philadelphia Park first time out, and as this one has an asterisk next to the Tomlinson figure, the pedigree is still unproven, but we'll toss in with a 7 lb. reduction in weights.
| Race 3 | 1st -Own the Field | 2nd -Master of Arms | 3rd -Dillinger |
We're seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3 ! Not really, but aren't we clever ! #1 OWN THE FIELD has hit the board in six of his last seven, and gets a jockey upgrade from a slumping Saez to a top three rider and T-Gaff. Gelding draws the inside for the first time, and put forth an honest placing at 8-1 the only time he went from two turns to one. #2 MASTER OF ARMS is a steady sort who definitely seems like a sensible unders candidate. #3 DILLINGER was a going away winner versus conditional platers on July 12th, and while this is an appreciable hike in class, we'd be remiss in excluding off of that big number. NOTE: AS OF 10:23, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-5-3.
| Race 4 | 1st -Victor's Valiant | 2nd -Unit Economics | 3rd -Abadin |
#2 VICTOR'S VALAINT has really rounded into form over his last troika, as he has two runner up finishes and a game tally, the latter which came right here during Belmont week. Flavor Flav riding in good form these days, and this one looks like a major player. #5 UNIT ECONOMICS has a fine collection of running lines, and will once again take some pounding at the windows. #3 ABADIN completed the triple at 7-1 on the dirt last time out, and as he's decently bred for the turf as well, we see a solid transition within reason. OFF TURF: 6-7-4-2-5 NOTE: AS OF 10:27, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 12(MTO-3-2.
| Race 5 | 1st -All That Magic | 2nd -Unsung Melody | 3rd -Lady Milagro |
#2 ALL THAT MAGIC hasn't shown much in either start this year, but get some class relief today, and as a matter of fact has won her last four starts outside of state's company. Toss in a groovy 5 of 8 mark at today's distance of ground, along with a win and her only 3rd off the layoff engagement, and that's more than enough reason to permit her to make amends. #5 UNSUNG MELODY is a well traveled sort who goes over the blades for the first time, and while she's not as well bred for it as the dirt, even with a slight reduction off the recent speed figure, she could be tough enough to make a strong impression here. #3 LADY MILAGRO sure is a hard trying sort, and she owns three wins and a showing the only times she has gone from brown to green. Big shot. OFF TURF: 1-4-8(MTO)-3-2 NOTE: AS OF 10:31, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-5-3.
| Race 6 | 1st -Bump in the Night | 2nd - Karen's Honor | 3rd -Backstretch Rose |
We don't really have the best of reads on this event, so tread lightly. #7 BUMP IN THE NIGHT hasn't been seen since being purchased in Arkansas at the end of April, but we like the aggressive move up the ladder today, as well as the fact that Irad sees fit to ride. Jockey/Trainer combo have done excellent work here the last couple of years, and we'll give this one a tepid nod because of the formulator statistic in play. Over the last 5 years, this barn is three or five with locally based routers who were purchased 53 to 153 days back. The winner paid $10, $6, and $4. #9 KAREN'S HONOR comes in off a decent third place finish at this level from about five weeks ago, and can't fault those taking a favorable view. #10 BACKSTRETCH ROSE outran her odds quite nicely when completing the exacta at 16-1 the only time she went from the green stuff, to the sandy stuff, and finds herself entered for her lowest price yet.
| Race 7 | 1st -On the Ledge | 2nd -Muazarah | 3rd -Royal King |
#3 ON THE LEDGE returned off of a 14th month hibernation to make every call a winning one when being made available for purchase for the first time at the end of June. He ended up in a new barn afterwards that day, and seems properly spotted this afternoon for his first try against victors. Another race with another meek selection. #6 MUAZARAH doesn't have to be hiked in class with the new claim date rules that have been set in place recently, so he is spotted back in for a quarter after being bought for that amount on the 12th of July. Not sure what gets him over the hump today, except for the fact that it was a career best speed figure earned that day, so perhaps he can improve for the fourth straight time. #5 ROYAL KING owns a win and a nose defeat the only two times he was in his second off the bench spot, and deserves some respect. NOTE: AS OF 10:35, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIOSN WILL BE 3-7-6.
| Race 8 | 1st -Sunset Louise | 2nd -Cupid's Heart | 3rd -Smokin 'Hot Kitty |
#1 SUNSET LOUISE demolished the competition the last time she was in a 3rd off the layoff scenario, and in a bit of an anomaly, draws the inside for the first time in her 15 race career. Recognize that Jose has won three straight times he's been paired up with her, and four of the last five. Looking good. #6 CUPID'S HEART is another who has fared quite well off of this type of layoff scenario, and also owns a nice boxscore in 'Toga town. Quite playable. #3 SMOKIN' HOT KITTY tries to get one for the thumb on the main this afternoon, and we'd be Silly McGilly to exclude, especially with the three for three mark at today's distance of ground. NOTE: AS OF 10:39, WET OR FAST, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-4-3.
| Race 9 | 1st -Riverwalk | 2nd -El Alacran | 3rd - Steadfast Resolve |
#6 RIVERWALK hasn't done much to get the heart pumping in his last duet, but we always like to go back at least three starts to find something positive, and sometimes even moreso with maidens. That being said, the April 26th effort down in Hallandale Beach was a nifty one at that. Nice jockey change in store this afternoon, and this chap should appreciate moving in six slots. #3 EL ALACRAN lost by only a noggin the only time he was in the third off the bench engagement, and it's encouraging to see Johnny V. stick around after this one played the fade last time out. You just might have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #1 STEADFAST RESOLVE has done nothing but improve with each passing start, and now takes the biggest drop in the game for today's third off the layoff deal. Watch out suckahs! OFF TURF: 3-10-1-9-7 NOTE: AS OF 10:43, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 13(MTO)-5-11(MTO)
Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 37-194 ( $474.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-11 ( 18.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 63-194 ( 33% )( As of Wednesday morning )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout
