Another nice day for us yesterday, and as a matter of fact, it was our TENTH profitable afternoon from 15 days through the meet thus far.
We had three winners ( $11, $7 & $4 ), two Ice Cold Exactas of $82 & $28 ( along with a $65 Box ), a $31 Cold Double ( along with two Rollers of $112 & $15 ), and a $322 straight Triple, as we're guaranteed of a Flat Bet Profit until at least the opener on Friday, August 9th.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Writer's Regret | 2nd -Critical Threat | 3rd - Sagamore Mischief |
#1 WRITER'S REGRET took the obligatory hike in class after being purchased on June 29th, and showed a little bit of speed that day, before besting only one at the end. Three returnees from said deal have rung up a pair of wins, with an average Beyer improvement of 5.8 points per. Fella is halved in price this afternoon, but we like that he is still kept above the purchase price. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #4 CRITICAL THREAT has won three of his last four, and also owns nice records at this trip and over the strip. Obvious threat to the above. #2 SAGAMORE MISCHIEF drops for the 4th straight time today, and has a crisp three for six mark when first to load, and that stands out quite favorably against his 1 for 34 mark otherwise. One more shot. NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-3-1A-5.
| Race 2 | 1st -Side Eye | 2nd -Summer in Erin | 3rd -Speed Figures |
#1 SIDE EYE tossed in a bit of a clunker last time out when fading at the top of the stretch, but let's be a bit forgiving, as the fractions were positively insane that afternoon. T-Gaffsticks around, and that's fine by us, especially as we see the best of 54 bullet breeze a week and a half ago, which tells us there wasn't too much starch taken out of the collar. #4 SUMMER IN ERIN gets his working papers today, and although the pedigree is a touch light, we like the gate move on display, as well as the fact that all four siblings found the line first, with their initial tallies coming within the first three starts. #6 SPEED FIGURES is another debuter with moderate pedigree for the green stuff, but owns a big time Tomlinson for the distance. This one is a half to a stakes placed runner, who banked more than $156,000 on the synthetic and sod. OFF TURF: 4-2-5-7-8 NOTE: AS OF 10:29, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-2-9.
| Race 3 | 1st -Aspen Grove | 2nd -Be Your Best | 3rd -Sabalenka |
These three and no more for all our rolling action in just about the saltiest optional race you'll see in these parts. #5 ASPEN GROVE has a boatload of back class, and owns a win and a placing from three starts on firm ground. A definite 1-2-3 player for those who like to grind a show profit. #1 BE YOUR BEST is another classy girl who has won both her starts on the Inner, and has the ability to send or rate just a bit. #2 SABALENKA hasn't been seen since turkey time, but Frankie sees fit to ride, and may land a share. OFF TURF: 1-10(MTO)4-9(MTO)-7 NOTE: AS OF 10:33, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8(MTO)-9(MTO)-3.
| Race 4 | 1st - Jak and Burny | 2nd -Key Point | 3rd -Pompous Prince |
If you draw a line through the one race where he hopped at the start, #4 JAK N BURNY has led in 27 of 28 points of call to date, while winning in six of those starts and placing in one. While this may be no walk in the park, we can see him still being somewhat overlooked at the bedding windows because Saratoga punters have a tendency to be a little snobbish when it comes to these Finger Lakes shippers. #7 KEY POINT hasn't been seen in nearly two full calendars, but has done okay off of a break in the action, and found the line first in his only start at today's distance of ground. Take a look at this one during the warmups. #1 POMPOUS PRINCE is another Canandaigua County invader who is a check earning fool, having partaken in the superfecta in 11 of 12 starts on the sand.
| Race 5 | 1st - Ariana | 2nd -Going for Glory | 3rd -Troubled Luck |
#4 ARIANA returned off a bit of a freshening to flop on the turf a couple of weeks ago, and now this 125k purchase can be all yours for about a quarter of that, as the white flag is promptly run up. Jockey/Trainer combination are on a sensational 6 for 8 run with New York based dirt stock at 7-1 or less, who are available for purchase. The winners came back $15, $9, $3, $8, $6, and $15, and this one could be sitting on a solid effort in a second off the layoff try. #3 GOING FOR GLORY has hit the board in her last quartet, and who are we to rock that boat? #2 TROUBLED LUCK has been a part of the super in both turf to dirt deals, and could plod along for a piece. NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 6 | 1st -Dignified Response | 2nd -Richard Avenue | 3rd -Orie |
#1 DIGNIFIED RESPONSE begins his working life this afternoon, and does such with a bullet gate move in tow, which is something that always merits inclusion. A quick look at the family tree tells us that four members went 4:2-0-1-1 the first time they went two turns on the turf or synthetic, and this January foal is backed by a tidy stat as Weaver is on a 2 of 4 run w/those fitting all of this exact criteria ( any sex ), with returns of $14 and $6. #4 RICHARD AVENUE showed precipitous improvement when getting on the blades for the first time, & may appreciate the added ground. #7 ORIE overcame a bit of trouble at the onset to pick up fourth place money in the debut, and has blinkers added this afternoon, which may aid this one in being more forwardly placed early on. OFF TURF: 5-4-3-2-1 NOTE: AS OF 10:45, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-4-9.
| Race 7 | 1st -St Andrews | 2nd -Mystic Night | 3rd -Grandpa's Kid |
We are not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly. #6 ST ANDREWS is protected against the claim after being plucked for 40 large last time out, and new barn stretches this one out to two turns today; fella is 5:1-1-0-2 when doing such in his career. Mild choice. You can basically replicate the first couple of lines from the above analysis in regards to the #4 MYSTIC NIGHT, who is also one of two when going one turn to two. Jockey/Trainer tandem do better when together, and can't fault those taking a favorable view here. #5 GRANDPA'S KID rounds out the top three, which is another way of saying that "We are losing interest in this race, so let's move on."
| Race 8 | 1st -Barese | 2nd -Dr. Kraft | 3rd -Shadow Dragon |
#7 BARESE has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but is made available for purchase for the first time here, and totes along a decent mark at todays distance of ground. On the whole, Looie has been quite frigid on the meet, but he's had a couple of decent winners to end the week, so maybe he's heating up a bit. #3 DR. KRAFT has yet to finish out of the money at today's dx., and gets a big time upgrade to a pilot who guided him to a third place finish at 11-1 back in December. #2 SHADOW DRAGON is a bit of a money burner, and the 6:0-4-1 ledger at today's trip has us thinking he's better suited for the unders once again.
| Race 9 | 1st -Chop Chop | 2nd -Atomic Blonde | 3rd -Royalty Interest |
Nicely competitive rendition of the Glens Falls on tap today, and we feel we could do a lot worse than siding with the #3 CHOP CHOP. This game gal has a sweet declining mark of 6:3-2-1 on the green stuff, and has gone 59-71-80-95-96-97 over the stuff, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Well traveled sort is a major contendress. #6 ATOMIC BLONDE is another consistent sort who has earned nearly a half million bucks to date, but we have not been enamored with some of Rosario's rides this meet, so will leave beneath. #2 ROYALTY INTEREST has some nice early zip, and it looks like they will have to grab her by the tail to get the glory.
| Race 10 | 1st -Miss Lao | 2nd -Pamplona Red | 3rd -Dance On Air |
#1 MISS LAO has hung up a couple of decently adjusted BSF's since getting on the gramma, and Mott is a saucy f4 of 10 with maiden claiming turf routers getting Lasix who hit the board less than 68 days ago. There is a subcategory of two for four with Junior aboard, and we wouldn't be surprised to see him try to steal this one on the front end. #7 PAMPLONA RED takes the biggest drop in the game today, and must be left in the mix because of such. #4 DANCE ON AIR is another one on the dropdown, and discount the connections at your own peril. OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-1 NOTE: AS OF 10:49, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-4-10.
Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 30-153 ( $432.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-10 ( 20% ) Favorite's Win %: 47-153 ( 30.7% )( As of Thursday morning )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout
