Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Victoria's Wave | 2nd -Writers Regret | 3rd -Hot Rod Rumble |
| Race 2 | 1st -Solo In Paris | 2nd -Gum Island | 3rd -Heard on Thestreet |
This is one of the times of the year when you see horses at never before seen depths, as trainers need to figure out what to do before Saratoga. The same can be said for #4 SOLO IN PARIS, as this three year old takes a drop in class today for Randi. Decent bug gets in the irons this afternoon, and we'll give this one a tepid nod. #7 GUN ISLAND is our fifth consecutive selection who slides down the ladder, and rates a shot if able to get back to the penultimate effort. #2 HEARD ON THESTREET drops, drops, drops, and has done well at this trip & over this trip. Switch from an apprentice to a journeyman duly noted. NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Colonel Vargo | 2nd -High Heat | 3rd -Bustin Shout |
#4 COLONEL VARGO has won five of his last six eight of his last 11, and sheds 3 lb's off a win, which is something we always dig. As this one thus far appears to be better on a fast track than one with moisture in it, you can feel free to upgrade the recent speed figure accordingly. Hard trying animal should go all the way. #7 HIGH HEAT is 5 of 20 at today's distance of ground, and that stands out quite favorably against the 0 for 11 mark otherwise. Chance to make amends back in with platers today. #2 BUSTIN SHOUT is confidently hiked up in class despite being kept in prison since the May 4th purchase, and gets an upgrade in the irons from that day. NOTE: AS OF 10:51, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Boys Code | 2nd -Bad Larry | 3rd -Thethrillofvictory |
#6 BOYS CODE is a nibbler by nature, and gray gelding has a propensity for coming from the back of the pack. The good news though, is that his only winner's circle photo was taken right here, and Jackie comes down for the mount ( and she's done well for us in the past at some big prices ). #3 BAD LARRY has always been a fairly consistent sort, and although he burned a bit of bread in an off the turf event during the Saratoga spring meet, there is a reduction in the weight department this afternoon, and his finest work has come in Queens. #5 THETHRILLOFVICTORY didn't show much in his lone dirt deal, but we like to give an animal two opportunities under a particular set of circumstances to show something positive. Note the perfect two for two record in second off the layoff jammies.
| Race 5 | 1st -Art of Courage | 2nd -Nano Man | 3rd -Impulsive Spending |
#2 ART OF COURAGE has been a completely different animal since switching over to the blades last May, as he's closed out the Exacta twice in the three starts since. The last time out was extremely disappointing however, and this $2,500 homebred is now put up for sale for the first time. Obvious factor in today's third off the layoff engagement, but you should examine a bit pre race. #9 NANO MAN is yet another entrant today being given up on, but draws ideally for the second of the l/o try, and jockeytrainer combo fare better together than apart. #1 IMPULSIVE SPENDING ( cross enteered yesterday so check the changes ) goes two turns to one for the first time on the turf, and may spice things up beneath. OFF TURF: 1-7-9-8-4
| Race 6 | 1st -Crazy Legs Hirsch | 2nd -Valenzan Day | 3rd -Goldini |
With #2 CRAZY LEGS HIRSCH, we recommend do yourself a favor and draw a line through his last four starts over a wet surface. If you do that, then what you have is a runner who's gotten the job done in five of his last six outings, and who now also takes a drop in class. Barn had a 20-1 winner here on Thursday, and we'll make this one a meek selection. #6 VALENZAN DAY won at this level last time out, and although it was going one turn, we feel you should be able to navigate today's second left. Obviously, we love the perfectly declining career Mark of 16:6-3-1, and can't fold those taking a favorable view. #3 GOLDINI rounds out the top three.
| Race 7 | 1st -Move to Gold | 2nd -Mattingly | 3rd -Please Advise |
#4 MOVE TO GOLD has yet to finish off the board in four starts to date, and we like the versatility shown, as he's done it at four different locales, beneath four different jockeys, and going one turn or two. Lone start in this zip code yielded a going away victory directly in front of a next out victor, and it came beneath today's helmsman as well. Slight edge. #1 MATTINGLY nearly got all of the popcorn last time out, but settled for a lively runner-up finish that afternoon. Factor once again in today's third start off the pine. #5 PLEASE ADVISE went from zero to hero the only time he was on this course, and it was also the only time written by Cancel. Could be sitting on a decent effort off of a troubled trip. OFF TURF: 2-5-4-6-1 NOTE: AS OF 10:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Kerry | 2nd -Reflexivity ( Ire ) | 3rd -Epic Miss Justice |
#4 KERRY has been a part of the triple in seven of his last eight sod sprints, and one of those was a tally in a third of the layoff spot. Jock has done well when astride, and this one has yet to miss the baccala at this trip or over the strip. Another slim margin in another wide open event. #1 REFLEXIVITY is a bit of a fragile sort, but picked up the lion's share in her only come back or on firm ground, and has to be left in the mix given the connections. #6 EPIC MISS JUSTICE hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but by no means disgraced herself in her only other return of an elongated sabbatical. Deserves your respect. OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-2
| Race 9 | 1st -Subrogate | 2nd -He'smyhoneybadger | 3rd -Factually Correct |
#4 SUBROGATE is three lengths short of having an unblemished four for four record when going one turn, and that includes a win right here, and a two for two record when receiving the wonder drug. While a regression is always possible off the career best performance, even with that he could be able to get the jobs done here. #7 HE'SMYHONEYBADGER is hiked up in class off the claim last month, but is another coming in off of a lifetime numero, and the pre-layoff pilot returns, which is something we always like to see. #3 FACTUALLY CORRECT has been alternating losses and wins for his last octet, but we like his overall box score at Aqueduct, along with his ability to send or rate just a bit.
| Race 10 | 1st -Covert Kat | 2nd -Just for Luck | 3rd -Into It |
#5 COVERT KAT is a well traveled fella who's completed the triple the only time he was in a third of the layoff placement, and although he's a bit light from a numbers aspect, we like the ascension of speed figures since last November. 5yr old has a propensity for burning a bit of money, but we think you may get double digit odds today, and will take a shot. #3 JUST FOR LUCK has yet to miss the money in any start at today's distance of ground, and we like the improved early zip shown in the most recent. #4 INTO IT is one for three at the trip, and consistent sort can grab a piece. OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5-2
| Race 11 | 1st - Willintoriskitall | 2nd -Emirates Road | 3rd -Relate |
#8 WILLINTORISKITALL put forth an honest placing in an off the turf deal at the end of May, and being that was his first start in more than eigt flips of the calendar, we definitely think he may have needed the race. The turf form from last year was pretty good, and gelding was victorious the only time he went from brown to green. #2 EMIRATES ROAD was a visually impressive winner when catching firm ground for the first time down in Maryland a month ago, and while this is definitely a bit of a hike in class, perhaps the light bulb can stay on here. #5 RELATE has been MIA for nearly a year, but has done okay after a layoff, and would be no surprise. OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-10
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 53-233 ( $387.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 90-233 ( 38.6% )( As of Saturday morning )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7684-20491( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4195-20955 ( $35,442.60 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7827-21077( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
