Let's make believe yesterday didn't happen ( other than the four Rolling Doubles of $39, $321, $14 & $4 ).
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Battle of Britain | 2nd -No Surrender | 3rd -Shakin the Belle |
#3 BATTLE OF BRITAIN returned off of more than a two year calendar hibernation to beat only a couple home in each start, and now takes a precipitous drop while having blinkers added for the first time. Lightly raced 6 year old is decently bred for today's surface transition, and could perk up a bit. #5 NO SURRENDER has been a part of the superfecta in his last quintet, and his best effort to date came when going turf to dirt. #2 SHAKIN THE BELLE has some decent early hoof, and as he's ascended the buyer scale since we're turning off a freshening, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards.
| Race 2 | 1st -Nimitz Class | 2nd -Mason Mania | 3rd -Fromanothermutha |
#3 NIMITZ CLASS hasn't hit the board in four starts this annum, and after banking more than three quarters of a million dollars in 25 starts to date, the white flag is now run up on this 5yr. old. Obviously we love the overall declining mark, and it's encouraging to see Franco stick around after the most recent. We'll give this one a timid nod in a race with but one first draft toss out. #5 MASON MANIA only beat home a horse and the chase ambulance when making his first start off the claim, but there's no scary drop today, and as he's hit the board and 9 of 12 starts beneath the seagulls, we'll chunk in. #2 FROMANOTHAMUTHA is a bit of a nibbler, but has fared well but beneath today's pilot, and while a sensible addition, it would behoove you to take a looksee during the warmups after the voided claim back in April.
| Race 3 | 1st -Solib | 2nd -Ribot's Valentine | 3rd -Determined Lily |
#4 SOLIB gave a solid account of herself when switching back over to the green stuff last time out, and as a matter of fact has been a part of the triple in seven of her last eight afternoon treks to the front side, and there is a solid DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 1,826 days, This barn is a perfect four for four with second off the claim sod starters who hit the board more than nine days ago, and the winners in that survey were an honest $15, $14, $6, and $3. #1 RIBOT'S VALENTINE stretches out to two turns for the first time today, and has done recently in her second off the layoff engagements. #5 DETERMINED LILY shoots for the truncated hat trick this afternoon, and although she takes the obligatory hike in class after the recent score, we will toss into the cookie batter because it occurred in her lone start on this course. OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-4-5-2-7(MTO)
| Race 4 | 1st -Chalky Cat | 2nd -Ice Road | 3rd -Bobby the Tank |
#8 CHALKY CAT has been away for about three months after being snagged for a quarter at the end of March, and now returns at the same level of the placing from that day. Eight returnees from that affair have accumulated an 8:3-1-2 record in the next outings from six sui generis races, w/an average speed figure improvement of 7.9 points per. #5 ICE ROAD is another who has been freshened up since last in action, and although we came this close to putting this one up top, the 8:0-6-0 mark at today's distance of ground gave us some pause for the cause. Shades of Refuah anyone? #7 BOBBY THE TANK ( uncoupled barnmate with our top choice ) picked up his only win at this trip, and despite being out of form of late, may last for a share.
| Race 5 | 1st -On the Hill | 2nd -Big Prankster | 3rd -Apollo Code |
#4 ON THE HILL has been beset by some layoff lines in his career, but is quite familiar with today's trip, and is one of two in second off the layoff spots. Meek selection. #3 BIG PRANKSTER was a lively runner up the only time he went from T to D, and his only score came at this dx.. #2 APOLLO CODE seeks his third straight win this afternoon, and the three for four mark at six panels positively leaps off the page.
| Race 6 | 1st -Parade Ring ( Ire ) | 2nd -Scarlet Poppy ( Ire ) | 3rd -Scarlet Poppy ( Ire ) |
#7 PARADE RING (IRE) faded late in the game in this race on the 2nd of May, but that was an extremely quick second quarter, and could fair better today if able to relax a bit. #9 SCARLET POPPY (IRE) cuts back for today's secondary engagement, and note that the three runners who finished ahead of her, and the one who finished behind her in the most recent, rung up two winners and two placings from three different races, improving in the speed figure department by an average of 6.9 points per.. #10 STAGE PRE SENCE closed stoutly in the debut and draws ideally once again. OFF TURF:12(AE)-1-11(AE)-2-13(MTO)
| Race 7 | 1st -Spirit of Esther | 2nd -Rose Summer | 3rd -Generous Luva |
#7 SPIRIT OF ESTHER ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) didn't do much to get the heart thumping first time out, but encountered a bit of trouble that day, and takes the biggest drop in the business this afternoon. Eligible to improve despite the weak turf pedigree. #6 ROSE SUMMER was in the rear with the gear in an off the turf event 19 days back, but that was likely a prep for today, as the Oldsmar overture over the blades was solid enough. #9 GENEROUS LUVA is another one plunging today, and gets the wonder drug for the first time. OFF TURF: 2-12(AE)-5-9-8
| Race 8 | 1st -Twelth ( sic ) Man | 2nd -Blue Plate Special | 3rd -Magnificent Mile |
#5 TWELTH ( sic ) MAN has hit the board in both starts since returning off a lengthy sabbatical, and although this one prefers the fringes, we see that he's got one win from four third off the layoff jammies. Slight edge. #3 BLUE PLATE SPECIAL has been an absentia since a claim was voided back in mid April, and perhaps he'll appreciate the first freshening of his career. The 4:2-1-0 record at today's distance stands out favorably against the 12:0-0-4 mark otherwise. #1A MAGNIFICENT MILE bested what we would consider to be a tougher grouping down at the Shore last month, and makes all kinds of sense in for nearly half the price of that day.
| Race 9 | 1st -Solo Empire | 2nd -Feline Treasure | 3rd -Dunedin Causeway |
#5 SOLO EMPIRE gave an excellent account of himself when going over the verde for the first time a month back, and while he may have outrun his bloodlines that afternoon, we'll give him a shot to pick up the sheepskin today with a paucity of speed runners signed on. #2 FELINE TREASURE gets a positive trainer upgrade since the most recent, and by no means disgraced himself when facing tougher in his initial turf try. #9 DUNEDIN CAUSEWAY closed out the super at 42 to 1 in his third consecutive off the turf spot on closing day of the Saratoga spring meet, and as we like to go far back with maidens to find something positive, we see that the local lidlifter way back when, right here, wasn't half bad at box car odds. OFF TURF: 8-5-3-4-1
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 51-224 ( $371 ) Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 88-224 ( 39.3% )( As of Friday morning )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7684-20491( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4195-20955 ( $35,442.60 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7827-21077( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
