Just a couple of chalky winners for us here yesterday.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #7 Signal From Noise
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Maturity Date | 2nd -Autumn's Turn | 3rd -Rising Inflation |
#4 MATURITY DATE ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has been kept in jail since the April 21st purchase, but after the good effort that day is now protected against the claim today. The adjusted figaro from that effort ranks amongst the upper echelon of numbers in this group, and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up. #1 AUTUMN'S TURN was a well beaten but game runnerup in a Monmouth Stakes early in the month, and as she has done nothing but improve in all three starts over a good surface, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. #6 RISING INFLATION posted an adjusted Figaro of 72.7 in her only dirt engagement, and as that came without the use of the wonder drug, we can see a solid effort being put forth today.
| Race 2 | 1st -Good Long Cry | 2nd -Moon Gate | 3rd -Carol Said No |
#5 GOOD LONG CRY didn't do much to get the heart thumping when starting things out down in Hallandale Beach a bit over a month ago, but that wasn't the easiest of spots, and we always like to give a horse two chances under a particular set of circumstances to prove themselves. Two come backers from that affair posted a win and a second in their followup engagements, and this miss is backed by a solid DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, Weaver is a dreamy four of four with second time starting turf sprinters who are not receiving Lasix off breaks of more than a month. The winners came back $9, $8, $43, and $3, and it's encouraging to see Ortiz hop on. #1 MOON GATE gets her working papers this afternoon, and does such with a bullet gate breeze in tow, which is something that always merits inclusion. #3 CAROL SAID NO has a couple of nicely tucked away morning moves for today's overture, and January foal has a maturity advantage over those that have yet to race. OFF TURF: 7-8-9-1-6
| Race 3 | 1st -Daddy Knows | 2nd -Higher Quality | 3rd -Centavo |
#1 DADDY KNOWS takes the obligatory hike in class after being bought 25 days back, and the pre layoff pilot returns, which is something we always like to see. That's especially true in this scenario, as young Katie has done fantastic work astride this game gelding. You can feel free to upgrade the recent speed figure by approximately 9.2%, as he's that much better on a fast track than one with moisture in it. From a trainer stat point of view, Oscar Oscar Oscar is anything but messy messy messy when it comes to his freshly purchased locally based dirt stock off absences of 7 weeks or less. He's four of four with that sort, and the winners came back a robust $11, $20, $4, and $8. #5 HIGHER QUALITY hasn't shown diddly poo in his last pair, but is a head shy of being three for three when entered at this level or below. #6 CENTAVO as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 4 | 1st -Bourbon Calling | 2nd -Blake B | 3rd -Classic Mark |
#5 BOURBON CALLING crushes. #2 BLAKE B popped and stopped when being moved way up the ladder in his first start off the snag, and is eligible to improve off of that with a drop back down in class today. Recognize that he's scored in his last duet when first to load. #3 CLASSIC MARK hasn't been seen since a voided claim from way back in December, so right off the bat it would behoove you to take a gander in the paddock. That being said, he has a waiver claim attached today because of the respite, and we see that he has a two for two record in true starts off a sabbatical.
| Race 5 | 1st -Meraviglioso. | 2nd -Trade Secret | 3rd -Suspended Campaign |
See the trainer analysis of our Race 3 top selection in regards to #8 MERAVIGLIOSO. #3 TRADE SECRET has been in good form over his last troika, having finished in each trifecta position over that time, and some of her best work has come at today's distance of ground. Improvement in the irons in store today, and we like this one's tracking ability. #4 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN went from zero to hero to best slightly weaker last month, and while she's a bit light from a speed figure point of view, could pick up a check here.
| Race 6 | 1st -King of Comedy | 2nd -Born Answer | 3rd -Let's Go Big Blue |
#1 KING OF COMEDY has been a bit blase' over the last pair, but we like to be forgiving of pre and post layoff running lines, as perhaps something with amiss when last scene before the break, and perhaps they weren't fully geared up for the return. That being said, he had a few decent efforts last year, and that includes a 34-1 showing in a second off the bench deal. The adjusted BSF from that day came back an 89.3, and you actually may get some decent value here. #9 BORN ANSWER has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but went all the way the only time he was in a true second off the layoff situation, and we like this ones penchant for being able to send, or come from the back of the pack. #6 LET'S GO BIG BLUE has a nice mark at today's dx. and can grab a piece. OFF TURF: 6-2-1-1A(MTO)-5 NOTE: AS OF 4:24 P.M. WEDNESDAY, DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-7-9.
| Race 7 | 1st -Capital Spending | 2nd -Fabulous Fox | 3rd -Splashy |
#8 CAPITAL SPENDING positively immolated baccala with no palpable reason last time out, but we're encouraged by the fact that Flavor Flav sees fit to get back on this one. Jockey/Trainer combination do much, much better together than apart, and we'll give this one a tepid nod. #2 FABULOUS FOX has been in absentia for nearly half a calendar, but gets an upgrade in the saddle for today's return, and displayed a nice "Z" pattern in the lone turf deal. Big shot! #9 SPLASHY outran her parimutual offering quite nicely last year in her first start on firm ground, and did it when placing in between two next out winners. The only time she went one turn on the lawn, there was a bunch of trouble at the onset, and as she may have needed the comebacker back on the 8th, we'll toss this uncoupled entrymate with our secondary selection into the hopper. OFF TURF: 2-8-5-4-1
| Race 8 | 1st -Amanda's Folly | 2nd -Dame Cinco | 3rd -Malibu Moonshine |
#3 AMANDA'S FOLLY ( spotted yesterday as well ) came back off of a bit of a freshening to trail in this race back on the 10th, but her finest efforts have come at today's trip, and she's backed by a olid trainer statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, shedrow is 5 of 12 with Aqueduct based optional sand sprinters who hit the board 34 to 50 days back @ 9-1 or beneath. That study is for fillies only, and the payoffs for the winners were $9 x 2, $7, $4, and $3. #4 DAME CINCO found the drop in class to her liking last time out when picking up 55% of the pot in a gutsy effort, and we have no qualms with including. #1 MALIBU MOONSHINE will definitely be doing a rain dance today, but if the skies don't open up, will leave in the mix because of her two for four mark when breaking from the rail. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 SIGNAL FROM NOISE
| Race 9 | 1st -Fluorescent Bay | 2nd -Smooth and Easy | 3rd -Theregoesmymiracle |
#8 FLOURESCENT BAY has yet to take part in the superfecta, but with maidens we like to go back anywhere in their running lines to find something positive as they are maidens for a reason you know, and this fella has a couple of decent adjusted numbers from last year on display. The only time he was in the second off the layoff scenario, there was a 14 point improvement in the speed figure department, and Robbie keeps things in the family tree here in listing his son in law to ride. #10 SMOOTH AND EASY split the field at 49 to 1 the only time he went over the blades, and comes in today off a confidence boosting effort up at Canandaigua County. You may get some decent odds here given the low percentage connections. #1 THEREGOESMYMIRACLE is most definitely a professional maiden these days, but was a gamely runnerup finisher when last in action down in Oldsmar, and Paragallo had a solid effort with one of her runners up at Saratoga a couple of weeks ago. This barn may be sitting on a win or two during summer meet, so keep your eyes on them. OFF TURF: 8-6-7-5-3
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 49-186 ( $342.90 )Beatable Favorites: 4-9 ( 44.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 78-186 ( 41.9% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7684-20491( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4195-20955 ( $35,442.60 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7827-21077( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
