6/20 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

 

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

We positively LOVED that they originally scheduled a Steeplechase race during Belmont week ( which unfortunately was washed out ), as we've been a big supporter of the program throughout the years. In today's homage' to Beverly Steinman -- a grand dame' of the sport -- we're going to give the nod to #2 GORDON'S JET (IRE). This one has tried to run sans jockey in the last pair, but that's not completely legal, so will give it another whirl this afternoon beneath somebody that we're not too familiar with. Given the outfit, we have no qualms in using at what should be a good offering. #4 JIMMY P has been grizzly in the last pair, but we like to be forgiving of pre and post layoff running lines, as perhaps something went slightly awry before the break, and perhaps they weren't fully geared up afterwards. That being said, he had a game placing in his lone start up here last year, and is a factor of sound and fully cranked up. #5 RAMPOLDI PLAN was an impressive winner of the Commonwealth Cup, and discount any Leslie Young runner at your own peril.

We don't have the best of reads on the second half of today's traditional Early Daily Double, but will lean towards #7 MO PLEX. This January foal has a maturity advantage on those who have yet to race, and aside from drawing ideally, has been working quite well up at Oklahoma. All three members of the family tree who made it to the races scored at first asking, and he needn't be much in this spot. #6 MAN FROM MALTA played the fade in the lidlifter, but got smacked around a bit at the onset that day and catches a glib surface for the first time this afternoon. #3 OUT ON BAIL nearly made every call a winning one in the May 10th overture, and the loan returnee from that affair got the job done when next in action, improving 25% in the speed figure department.

#3 CINDERELLA'S CAUSE was a well beaten but decently clear runnerup in an identical spot 39 days in the rear, and after being claimed that day, ( and out of jail today ) returns back at that same level. Chestnut mare has done exceptionally well at today's distance of ground, and found the line first the last time she was beneath today's pilot. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #6 KHALI MAGIC has been a popular item at the claim box, as she's had to leave a forwarding address after her last three starts, and five of her last seven. $1,500 bred animal has earned well over half a million dollars thus far in her career, and given the speed and recent tally, they'll likely have to grab her by the tail to catch the glory. #5 RACING COLORS may plod along for a piece.

#8 JUST MARYANN hasn't been seen since merely splitting the field down in Hallandale Beach back in mid February, but gets her third different trainer in her last three outings, and this shotcaller has won with half of his eight turf routers making their first start in his barn, off breaks of a month or more. The winners in that sampling came back $8 x 3 & $30, and missy could be sitting on a good one. #1 JUST DENY has been a steady if unspectacular sort thus far in her career, but makes her third start off the sabbatical today, and gets off the rail a bit. Completes a very just exacta. #5 PAST TENSE has yet to miss a superfecta, and who are we to rock that boat?  OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-9-4-7-1

#1 SMOKIN' HOT KITTY set the early pace and then faded late in the game when going over the green stuff last time out, and is promptly switched back to the main today, which is fine by us. She completed the Exacta the only time she went from green to brown, and has won her last duet on a fast track. #5 WALK WITH ME was a bit flat last time out, but perhaps that could be attributed to getting roughed up a little bit at the start. Back on a fast track this afternoon, and good guy Duggan is three of six with Aqueduct based allowance dirt stock who missed the money 32 to 50 days in the past, that are 18 to 1 or less. The payouts for that survey was $7, $5, and $17, and today's jock has a win for this outfit. #6 CHASING DAYLIGHT nearly won this race last time out, so right off the bat must be included because of that. As an aside, Rudy Rod is three for eight with runners of this ilk who crashed the party less than 50 days back at 8-1 or less, with payoffs of $6, $7, and $8.  NOTE: AS OF 10:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#7 BEN'S SUNNY ISLAND was shipped down to Wilmington for her return engagement, and after showing very little that day, is switched back over to the verde. Triple-R has a win and a one length defeat the only times he had this one transition from dirt to turf, and it's good to see young Katie picking up rides for bigger and newer barns. #3 LACONIA has been extremely consistent over her last quintet, and iis confidently shipped up the turnpike for this. #10 LINARITE came from the back of the pack to get up in time in her only third off the bench jammie, and as that was her sole win from 14 starts to date, we'd be silly to leave out.  OFF TURF: 5-10-2-11-1

#9 NEIGH JUDE is a lightly raced four year old, but makes her second start after an absence here, and Breen gets the green with his maiden claiming gals who were 1-2-3 20 to 49 days back and are in receipt of Lasix today. He is 9:6-1-2 with that sort, and has an ROI of $4.07. #5 GOING FOR GLORY showed a career best effort when returning off a four and a half month break to pick up the place pot last out, and while a regression is always possible in a second time wonder drug scenario, keep in mind that she also now gets blinkers for the FIRST time. Can't fault those taking a favorable view in this weak field. #2 LA INDECENTE takes the biggest drop in the game here, and may have needed the most recent which was likely a prep.

#2 TOWHEAD put forth an honest effort in off the turf event about six weeks back, and we're surprised it took her this long to get back on the green stuff, as she's done quite well over it. Jockey/Trainer combination fare much better together than apart, and we'll give this one a meek nod. #6 ALLURING ANGEL has been beset by three consecutive layoff lines, but outfit knows how to have them ready for the returns, and this one gets the Big L for the first time. Chance to land a share with the back class. #8 SWOOP TO FINISH has been a part of the super in her last four starts going over the blades, and would be no surprise.  OFF TURF: 4-2-12(MTO)-6-10(MTO)

#3 THE PADDOCK PASTOR showed some improvement from a speed figure aspect when facing winners for the first time at the end of April ( never an easy thing to do ), and despite burning a little bit of bread that day, Ortiz sees fit to stick around for today's second off the shelf deal. Slight edge. #6 LAUREL VALLEY went coast to coast like butter and toast the only time he was in a third off the bench heat, and has never missed a superfecta finish beneath today's helmsman. #9 SONIC SPEED is two of four in second off the layoff turf spots, and gets a Hall of Famer back in the saddle today.  OFF TURF: 3-1-4-11-5

Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 47-177 ( $335.50 )Beatable Favorites: 4-9 ( 44.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 73-177 ( 41.3% )

Saratoga Spring  ( Final ): 7-47        ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A                 Favorite's Win %: 19-47   ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct  Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% )    Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% ) 

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7684-20491( 37.5% ) 

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4195-20955 ( $35,442.60 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7827-21077( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout