Happy Father's Day !!
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #3 Reserve Currency Race 9 - Reeves Entry
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -I'm Buzzy | 2nd -She's Awesome | 3rd -Icy Reply |
#2 I'M BUZZY is an extremely consistent gal, as this brown mare has amassed four wins and three showings over her last septet. 5 year old positively adores it here, and you can feel free to upgrade the most recent, as she's historically a bit better over a glib surface. Positive jockey change in play as well. #6 SHE'S AWESOME shoots for the grand salami today, and despite the mandatory hike in class after the recent purchase, we would say it's well within reach giving her perfect mark at today's distance of ground. #5 ICY REPLY has proven to be an excellent claim by Jimmy Ferraro, as this lady has earned a bunch of checks since the purchase 15 months ago. Solid win last time out, and can fare well once again with a slight drop in class. NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Gun Maestro | 2nd -Candy Tycoon | 3rd -Holdtheflight |
#6 GUN MAESTRO went coast to coast like butter and toast in his last pair, and although he faces open platers for the first time this afternoon, it's basically a similar class level; given his nice mark at today's trip, the hat trick is very doable. #7 CANDY TYCOON drops a tad after an honest placing 22 days in the rear, but we're not digging 2-1 here so we'll leave him beneath. #4 HOLDTHEFLIGHT has been kept in prison since the May 2nd purchase, & is halved in price for today's comebacker. Connections need a win to show a profit should another claim ensue, but it would behoove you to take a gander at this one during the warmups.
| Race 3 | 1st -Freesdale | 2nd - Bustin Away | 3rd -The Big Torpedo |
#4 FREESDALE has been freshened up a bit since splitting the field in a state bred stakes event back in April, and that heat has proven to be a key one, as three or four comebackers found their way into the winner's circle afterwards. There was an average Beyer improvement of 11.5 points per, and as this one is just as decently bred for the green as the brown, we're going to hope he can get back to that debut. #5 BUSTIN AWAY has been perfect in three starts to date, and has improved in the speed figure department along the way as well. 8-1 seems extremely generous here given the paucity of proven turf sprinters signed on, and this one has nice bloodlines for such. #1 THE BIG TORPEDO has completed the exacta in both sod starts, and cuts back from two turns to one this afternoon. OFF TURF: 8-7-2-3-1
| Race 4 | 1st -Focus Pocus | 2nd -Granadilla | 3rd -Welcome Back Babe |
These three and no more for all your rolling action. #3 FOCUS POCUS has the eye cups removed for the first time in today's third start off the L/O, and as she's yet to miss the money, seems to be a sensible selection -- especially with the addition of Flavor Flav in the irons. #4 GRANADILLA is another one in a third of the bench spot, and being she's closed out the exacta in her last duet, who are we to rock that boat? Should be no worse than third for those who like to grind out of show profit. #5 WELCOME BACK BABE has yet to finish in the first half of the pack, but may perk up in today's second start off the bench while having blinkers affixed for the first time. Recognize that the jockey trainer combination fare better together than apart.
| Race 5 | 1st -La Salvadorena | 2nd -Coif | 3rd -Dancing Dean |
#1 LA SALVADORENA down the lane. #9 COIF played the fade first time out, but given the connections you'd have to think this one is eligible to improve today. #8 DANCING DEAN has been beset by back to back L/O lines to begin her career, showed a flash of ability when trying the turf for the first time back in the fall, and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up OFF TURF: 4-2-6-5-1
| Race 6 | 1st -Beauys ( Ire ) | 2nd -Mondego | 3rd -Dripping Gold |
We don't have the best of reads on this deal, so tread lightly. #7 BEAUYS (IRE) was an even fourth place finisher down in Louisville at the end of May, and now returns to the locale of one of his finest efforts, as he was a lively and dead game running up finisher right here earlier that month. Irad sees fit to hop on, and he guided this one to a placing down in Hallandale Beach a couple of New Year's days ago. Mild choice. #2 MONDEGO returned off of 7 month break in the action to burn a bit of bread in finishing third in this exact spot on the 2nd of May but could step it up today with that under his girthstrap. #8 DRIPPING GOLD is one of two in second off the shelf spots, and could show some improvement this afternoon if able to get some clearance. OFF TURF: 3-1-4-10(MTO)-5
| Race 7 | 1st -Harvard | 2nd -Pineapple Man | 3rd -Mr. Swagger |
A couple of solid DRF Formulator statistics in play here, so let's get to them directly. #7 HARVARD has been kept in prison since the purchase 33 days back, and now returns at a dime less. That being said, Atras has won with half of his 16 locally based mid level sand starters who were bought 23 to 47 days in the past, and are ridden by today's jockey. The ROI for that survey was $2.87, and we like the value being offered here. #8 PINEAPPLE MAN is another one on the drop down, but both of his wins came right here, and barn is 6 of 12 with Aqueduct based dirt entrants at this level who crashed the fiesta 27 to 50 days back. The return on the investment for that study was more than $3.50, and you can upgrade the last speed figure given the fact that he's better on a fast track than one with moisture in it. #5 MR. SWAGGER ( dig it ) is up for grabs for the first time today, and lost by only a neck the only time he cut back from two turns to one. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 RESERVE CURRENCY NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Ascension | 2nd -Street View | 3rd -Beets |
#3 ASCENSION gets her working papers this afternoon, and aside from the decent worktab, is a half to a runner who owns a win and a placing from as many starts on the synthetic, which we feel translates well to the turf. Price play at double digit odds. #1 STREET VIEW has a few decent running lines on the resume', and outran her odds quite nicely when placing at 14 to 1 the only time she was first to load. #8 BEETS stretches out after a runnerup finish right out of the box, and could appreciate the added ground. OFF TURF: 6-2-12(MTO)-1-9
| Race 9 | 1st -Samburu ( GB ) | 2nd -Operation Torch | 3rd -Scramble |
#9 SAMBURU (GB) is but 1 of 14 since arriving in the States, but the recent troika of speed figures is honest enough, and after the troubled onset in the most recent, w find it encouraging to see Ortiz hop on at 8-1. #3 OPERATION TORCH has never missed a superfecta finish, and has a win and a showing from as many heats at this dx.. #8 SCRAMBLE picked up the lion's share the only time he was in a true second off the bench deal, and we have no problem including in this wide open nightcap. BEATABLE FAVORITE: REEVES ENTRY OFF TURF: 8-1-5-3-13(MTO)
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 46-168 ( $329.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-7 ( 42.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 69-168 ( 41.1% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7684-20491( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4195-20955 ( $35,442.60 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7827-21077( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
