We start out today's return to The BIg A showing a flat bet profit for this meet, after having done the same for the last Aqueduct stand.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #2 Striking Speed
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Mount Travers | 2nd - First Deputy | 3rd -Ribbons and Medals |
#3 MOUNT TRAVERS has been camera shy for nearly two full calendars, but 8 year old still has a penchant for earning some checks, and totes the lightest impost in this, his 55th call to the post. Slight edge in an opener with no first draft eliminations. #5 FIRST DEPUTY ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) didn't appear to show a heck of a lot in his first start of the claim, but you can feel free to upgrade that number by approximately 10.7%, as he is that much better on a fast track then one with moisture in it. Ridgling has done his best work in Ozone Park, and can make amends. #4 RIBBONS AND MEDALS has been freshened up since last seen, and although 5/2 appears a bit short on this one, we'll include because of the early zip. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 STRIKING SPEED fills the bill, as Dutrow is oh for 17 with dirt stock off breaks of 46 to 50 days
| Race 2 | 1st -Lil Breezzy | 2nd -Double Cappuccino | 3rd -Bossy Dish |
#10 LIL BREEZZY gets her working papers this afternoon, and aside from drawing well, gal totes a hefty Tomlinson figure of 389 for today's distance. This one is a half to a present day 4 for 13 dirt runner who won down in Texas last week & from a DRF Formulator point of view, 'Miah is on a 5-8 run with first time starting fillies on this circuit and at this level, who are NOT receiving Lasix ( 13 to 1 or less ). The winners returned $14, $10, $8, $3, and $4, and we'll make this one a tepid selection. #1 DOUBLE CAPPUCINO is another one beginning her working life today, and does such with a crisp gate move showing from last Friday. 2YO went for nearly six times the $50,000 stud fee at auction, and could be any kind. #5 BOSSY DISH has a nicely tucked away workout from May 3rd, and could spice things up beneath.
| Race 3 | 1st -Copernicus | 2nd -Dakota Country | 3rd -Koru |
#9 COPERNICUS didn't show a whole heck of a lot when starting things out down in Hallandale Beach three months ago, but had some trouble at the onset that day, and now has blinkers added in hopes of giving this one a bit more early zip to stay out of trouble. Eligible to improve given the outfit. #3 DAKOTA COUNTRY moved forward in a big way when going over the blades for the first time, closing out the superfecta at 9-1 right here, and the lone returnee from that day was a snappy winner for Sackatoga Stables on closing day at Saratoga last week, while posting a solid Figaro in the process. #1 KORU was a bit awkward in the most recent, but still completed the Exacta when facing similar that afternoon. Draws the inside, and can sit a decent trip. OFF TURF: 9-4-1-11-10
| Race 4 | 1st -Two for Charging | 2nd -Giants Fire | 3rd -Sin Nombre |
| Race 5 | 1st -Mauritius | 2nd -King Freud | 3rd -Noble Huntsman |
#5 MAURITIUS has hit the board in all five starts when going over firm ground, and that includes a solid showing at 6-1 down in the bayou. Deserving favorite, but by no means a cinch in a heat that we don't have the best of reads on. #9 KING FREUD has improved over each and every turf try, so right off the bat who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. We'll nibble at 8-1 to find out. #8 NOBLE HUNTSMAN showed a bit of improvement the only time he had blinkers added, and is as good as any for the show dough. OFF TURF: 12(AE)-1-2-13(AE)-14(MTO)
| Race 6 | 1st -Being Betty | 2nd -Solo Shot | 3rd - War Terminatrix |
#4 BEING BETTY didn't show much in the return engagement, but likely needed that after the lengthy sabbatical. Barn is without a loss this meet, and they've done better with this pilot, then without. Mild choice. #5 SOLO SHOT has outran her parimutual offering quite nicely in both sod starts to date, and gets a big time upgrade in the irons today. #7 WAR TERMINATRIX is a maiden facing winners here, but you can sometimes get inflated value on runners is like that, and we see that she was vastly improved when going over the green stuff for the first time. OFF TURF: 8-6-3-5-4
| Race 7 | 1st -He Has It All | 2nd -Boom Boom Thunder | 3rd -Ahvee's Mission |
#9 HE HAS IT ALL took a big leap forward in his second start over a glib surface, when finishing a well clear runner up in a near identical placement. There's a solid trainer stat in play with this on, as barn is a whopping 7 of 9 w/ mdspwt sand stock ( getting "The Big L" ) who were 1-2-3 27-43 days in the past, and the ROI for that study is nearly $7. Threat to go all the way here. #3 BOOM BOOM THUNDER just may be the only threat to the above, given the solid Tommy for today's second start on a track labeled FST. #8 AHVEE'S MISSION has put together quite a decent worktab for today's overture, and we like the confidence shown shipping this one down from Finger Lakes when they were obviously some easier opportunities up there. NOTE: AS OF 11:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Kannon Fire | 2nd -Silent Melody | 3rd -La Vita Sophia |
#7 KANNON FIRE only bested half the field when returning off a lengthy break, but likely needed that effort, and lightly raised five yr. old could move forward today. with that under her girthstrap. #6 SILENT MELODY has been pretty consistent thus far, and by no means disgraced herself when facing winners for the first time last month. That's never an easy spot, and we'll toss her into the mix today. #3 LA VITA SOPHIA rounds out the top three. OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-2
| Race 9 | 1st -Bunny Honey | 2nd -Miss City Girl | 3rd - Laurana |
#12 BUNNY HONEY has undergone a positive trainer switch for her local debut, and from a limited sampling, Papa Engelhart is 2 for 5 with turf routers or absences of less than 52 days, beneath the 6-1 watermark. Meek selection. #4 MISS CITY GIRL didn't do much to get the heart thumping when taking her first afternoon trek to the front side back in November, but has been given ample time to fill out and sort things out since then, and returns with Flavor Flav in the irons, as well as now getting the miracle drug. #9 LAURANA encountered some trouble in the 2024 bow, but secures Joel for today's second off the bench deal, and we wouldn't be shocked to see some improvement. OFF TURF: 3-1-12-15(MTO)-7
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 41-148 ( $297 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-5 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 59-148 ( 39.9% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7684-20491( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4195-20955 ( $35,442.60 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7827-21077( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
