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Just a couple'a chalky winners here yesterday. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #6 Emma Lazarus


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Belmont Park - 10/8 - Happy Columbus Day !!

 

Race  1

1.San Juan Diego

2.Curlin's Legacy

3.Dark Ops

#1 SAN JUAN DIEGO owns nice figaros, has hit the board in three of his last four, and 14% shotcaller is 4 for 8 with maiden claiming dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta 26-52 days ago & are 5-2 or less today. #2 CURLIN'S LEGACY goes green to brown and long to short today, and 'Miah owns a groovy 8-18 mark when doing that who missed the baccala 18-64 days back & are beneath the 8-1 watermark ( $2.30+ ROI ). #4 DARK OPS ( second half of the uncoupled entry with 'Legacy ) was walloped at the onset of the comebacker, but has worked well since and may forget to stop with one under his girthstrap.

 

Race  2

1.Seek and Destroy

2.Seventh Planet

3.Eternally

#9 SEEK AND DESTROY disappointed from a parimutual aspect when being transitioned to the sod last time out, but the figure earned from that afternoon came back honest enough and you'd have to think that this Chad runner will move forward from that effort, no? #5 SEVENTH PLANET has outrun her odds in both starts to date, and posted nice figs while doing such. Big improvement expected with a cleaner start at the onset today while getting a bit off the rail. #4 ETERNALLY was sired by the great Candy Ride who was 3 for 3 on the gramma & deserves a bit of respect.  OFF TURF: 4-5-2-3-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 EMMA LAZARUS doesn't make our first draft, so why would we take 5-2 ?

 

Race  3

1.Blacktype ( Fr )

2.Hi Happy ( Arg )

3.Aquaphobia

Rosario walked the dog quite nicely with the #4 BLACKTYPE (FR) versus optional foes right here last time out, and actually, Joel's pretty good at doing that. Gelding really likes it here ( 4 for 10 ) and may go all the way once again. #7 HI HAPPY (ARG) is clearly the class of this field, and although we'll be using, 7-5 seems a bit low in this very competitive field. #3 AQUAPHOBIA has been in the money in 8 of 9 and it's reasonable to project another ITM placing today.  OFF TURF: 6-7-2-3-5(MTO)

 

Race  4 

1.Gentle Annie

2.Tequila Sunday

3.Zecha

#8 GENTLE ANNIE comes in today off a career best performance, and we like that this one's three best performances came over this surface. Expect this one to be forwardly placed with Reyes signed on. #7 TEQUILA SUNDAY has the hood re-affixed today after being herded WITH Irad aboard in last when finishing third in a nearly identical spot. Quickly approaching now or never time. #6 ZECHA has oodles of speed and we're not about to throw out a maiden who's closed out the "perfecta" in her last two calls to the post.

 

Race  5

1.Blue Jean Kitten

2.Perfect Kind

3.Sweet Timing

#2 BLUE JEAN KITTEN closed decently to best half the field first time out, but my guess is she wasn't fully cranked that day. Expecting a BIG step forward today, second time out. #4 PERFECT KIND nearly went all the way when adding Lasix in latest, and while this one figures a bit, Motion has been atrocious in NY of late; leaving beneath. #5 SWEET TIMING is a Kitten's Joy out of a Dynafomer mare...need we say more to include?  OFF TURF: 2-4-3-6-9

 

Race  6 

1.Belleville Spring 

2.Can'tweallgetalong

3.Southeast

#3 BELLEVILLE SPRING finds himself a his lowest level to date---loses the eye cups, and is a mild choice here. #7 CAN'TWEALLGETALONG has big figs and drops in class...immensely logical. #4 SOUTHEAST rounds off the top three.

 

Race  7

1.Transaction Tax

2.Goodbye Brockley

3.Fairy Link

#7 TRANSACTION TAX has boatloads of zippiness and gets a tremendous change in the jockey department today. May forget to slow down. #6 GOODBYE BROCKLEY has gone 83-82 in the last two forays over firm going and there's no reason to exclude here, so we're not gonna try it. #8 FAIRY LINK displays a reeeealy low Beyer for the start up  at Suffolk, but truth be told, those Beyers have been WAY off all fall long. Johnny V. hops back on this $10,000 auction purchase today.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-4-5  NOTE: AS OF 3:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Pegasus Red

2.Charming Indy

3.Sparty boy

#1 PEGASUS RED is an eight year old without the sexiest of running lines, but has hit the board in four straight at this level or less, and rates the meeeeekest of selections in a wide open affair. #6 CHARMING INDY is another who finds himself at an all time low today, and has done good things over this surface...legit chance. #3 SPARTY BOY retains Irad in this cheap event and has done his best work right here.

 

Race  9 

1.Jaded Lady

2.Questionoftheday

3.Lonely Road

After the maiden breaker on the sod up north, Jeremiah decided to switch the #1 JADED LADY back to the sand for a stakes at the Lakes, and the result left a lot to be desired. January foal is switched back over to the lawn today, and as the adjusted figure from the maiden breaker is comparable to many signed on, why not take a swing at 20-1 ?  #7 QUESTIONOFTHEDAY is 2 for 3 with the second score coming after blinkers were affixed, and progeny of The Factor have been doing exceptionally well over the green stuff. #2 LONELY ROAD flopped in the Schuylerville, but tries the turf for the first time and is nicely bred for the stuff.  OFF TURF: 3-11-5-6-4

 

Race  10

1.Touch of Bling

2.Lady Suebee

3.Rumble Doll

#6 TOUCH OF BLING may be an overlay in the finale. If you draw lines through the last four starts over softer ground, then what you're looking at is a win in an identical spot. Slight edge in a wide open finale to the final six day racing week here for quite some time. #9 LADY SUEBEE may perk up with the class relief today. #4 RUMBLE DOLL rallied strongly to procure 20% of the pot in a similar heat on August 29th, and did so despite encountering a bit of trouble. Pre-claim pilot returns, which we like.  OFF TURF: 5-3-6-1A-2  NOTE: AS OF 1:06, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN OVER A FAST TRACK, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-2-9.

 

Belmont        ( Current )    27-199 ( $196.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   6-16  ( 37.5% )  Favorites Win %: 83-199  ( 41.7% )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-49     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 21-49    ( 42.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9417 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9511( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9985 ($17,177.10)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017