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Decent day for us here yesterday, as we broke even with a couple of on top winners, but also nailed three rolling doubles of $153, $60, & $156, as well as a $147 triple box & two rolling pick three's of $433 & $1,686.

Let's keep it going into today, shall we?

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont Park - 10/4

 

Race  1

1.Gypsie Janie

2.Archumybaby

3.Miss Nancy

#6 GYPSIE JANIE is dropped 50% in price in the second start off the claim by Papa Englehart, and gal happens to be 3 fer 6 when put up for sale. 25% clan has won with half of their six mid level dirt dashers in 2nd off the purchase outings, and gal owns a win over the strip. #1 ARCHUMYBABY was kept in jail off the Diodoro purchase two months ago, and said shotcaller is 7:3-2-1with locally based freshly purchased runners of this ilk entering off a win ( 13-1 or less ). #3 MISS NANCY is another one sliding a bit down the ladder after switching barns and has fared pretty well in the three dirt tries.  NOTE: AS OF 11:52, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'s 4 & 5 WILL BE OUR SECOND AND THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  2

1.Killeen

2.Meillur

3.Year of the Kitten

There are three decent DRF Formulator stats in play for the second half of today's double, so let's get directly to 'em.  #1 KILLEEN: Cox ( 27% day to day ) is a groovy 7:5-0-2 with mid level turf stayers right here off this kind of layoff at 5-1 or less. The ROI for that sampling is $4.25, and colt is 2 fer 3 @ the trip. #6 MEILLUR: 18% Stidham owns a 5 for 15 mark with second off the L/O runners of this ilk that crashed the fiesta in last ( $2.01 return on investment ). #7 YEAR OF THE KITTEN: Maker ( 20% on the norm ) wins at a 30% clip with turf stayers at this class level who got the job done 3-6 weeks back and are 7-1 or undah ( pos. ROI ).  OFF TURF: 7-4-3-1-2

 

Race  3

1.Clutch Cargo

2.Blugrasscat's Smile

3.J J's Dreaming

#6 CLUTCH CARGO has a win & a third in his only two attempts when going from green to brown ( without a layoff ), and both of those starts were 2X to 1X deals as well. Ridgling ( ouch ) is in with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump for the 1st time, and Serpe is 2 for 5 when doing that to his dashers on the sand ( $2 & $16 ). Stone sticks around. #3 BLUGRASSCAT'S SMILE is 11:5-4-1 at the dx. & deserves to be left in the hopper. #4 J J's DREAMING has been a different animal over his last ( spread out ) triad, and is a logical contender.

 

Race  4 

1.Pier Forty

2.Quiet Out East

3.Waynes Footsteps

#5 PIER FORTY was a mite disappointing in the latest up at the Spa, and now undergoes a gamut of changes this afternoon: Dirt to turf, one turn to two, a new pilot, first time wonder drug, and has recently lost his ability to be "studdish". There's no scary drop yet and from an itty bitty sampling, Weaver is 2-3 when giving the wonder drug to his maiden special weight stock making this surface switch ( 25-51 days ). The winners came back $6 & $7, and we'll give this one a timid nod. #9 QUIET OUT EAST closed out the superfecta first time out at 17-1, and C-Squared is 2 for 6 with local 2nd time turfers/2nd time routers at this level ( 10-1 or lower ). #3 WAYNES FOOTSTEPS has some early speed and gets Irad in the saddle.  OFF TURF: 5-9-1-8-11

 

Race  5

1.King for a Day

2.Will Dancer

3.Defender

#3 KING FOR A DAY had a troubled and wide showing in the northern overture on closing weekend, but the figure earned that day came back purdy good. There was a crisp move up st Oklahoma 13 days later, and we feel this one lays over all except #1 WILL DANCER today. That Chad Brown charge broke on top in the bow, but acted a mite awkwardly afterwards before finishing 4th a 8-1. This fella went for 10 times the breeding price at auction, and was dropped by a dam who was 4-21 in dirt sprints, banking more than 164 large. As for the sibs, there was one who went 9-26 @ this dance ( 166K ), and another who was 3 for 9 doing the same ( 147G ). Employing the "Diamond in the rough" methodology with the #8 DEFENDER, as there's a crisp bullet breeze interspersed among several ordinary moves. 395 Tomlinson is healthy enough, and this one should get a clean trip from the outside slot.

 

Race  6 

1.Ninety One Assault

2.Eagle Pass

3.Sindarius ( AE )

#4 NINETY ONE ASSAULT had a run of making the super in 15 of 17 snapped in last when taking the overland route down at the Shore, but there's a jockey change in play today, and we'll take Franco over Jiminez any day of the week. Chance to make amends at a solid mutuel offering. #2 EAGLE PASS lost the blinkers and won the diploma in an off the turf event when making his first start for Linda 25 days ago, and although the turf breeding leaves a lot to be desired, she gives him another shot over the stuff. #10 SINDARIUS (AE) is on the outside looking in, but has improved with each passing start, having never missed the board. Second time routing today, and DeCarlo has done well with limited mounts this year.  OFF TURF: 2-10(AE)-6-5-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Adonis Creed

2.Acoustic

3.Bootlegger ( Fr )

#8 ADONIS CREED swerved to the right at the top of the stretch in last as if he was hit by Ivan Drago, and down went Paco that day. Neither came out worse for wear, and this one is now in for a tag for the first time. The good news is that my namesake is 2 fer 4 when doing just that with turfers at this level ( 78 days or less ). Those who won paid $13 & $7, and it's encouraging to see Joel climb aboard. #10 ACOUSTIC sounded good heading in to the last two, but ended up immolating some baccala when finishing 2nd in both. That aside, Servis is rarely nervous when entering in a high level claiming event right here ( T/R ) with those who were 1-2-3 in the most recent, as he's 7:3-1-1-1 in that area ( $4, $5 & $9 ). #2 BOOTLEGGER went pillar to post versus slightly weaker up in Saratoga, and we see no reason to exclude here.  OFF TURF: 10-1-2-7(MTO)-9

 

Race  8 

1.Special Relativity

2.Pacific Gale

3.Kathryn the Wise

We won't be going any deeper than these three for all our rolling action...  #3 SPECIAL RELATIVITY has won 2 of 3 since being claimed and stepped up ( while being claim protected ) by Diodoro. Truly hard to fault versus these. #2 PACIFIC GALE has partaken in the superfecta in 7 of 8 lifetime sprints, and her bast fast track figure to date came in the most recent outing over a glib surface. Definitely seems like the type you can slide into your triples with confidence. #4 KATHRYN THE WISE is undefeated, but hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, so while we may incorporate in the rollers, it's with a bit of trepidation. Take a looksie during the warmups.

 

Race  9 

1.Ballston

2.Jasmine's Gem

3.Sacrifice

We were unable to eliminate any of the entrants from today's finale with our first draft, so as is the norm ( and what has worked for us in recent years ) we dove into some specific trainer stats. The three we came up with are slightly limited in scope, but hey -- any port in a storm !  #4 BALLSTON: Gargan is a tight 3 for 4 with second off the layoff maiden claiming turfers off breaks of 21-61 days ( 20-1 or less ). The winners paid $12, and $11 x 2, and this one is second off a "true" layoff for the first time. #5 JASMINE'S GEM: Tom Bush owns a tidy 2 for 3 mark when adding blinkers to local runners fitting this criteria ( who have started ) w/ mutuels of $11 & $23. Back routing today. #2 SACRIFICE: Weaver has a 4:2-1-0 ledger with fresh acquisitions in turf routes ( $14 & $10 ).  OFF TURF: 7-6-10-8(MTO)-11  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont        ( Current )    22-161 ( $165.20 )    Beatable Favorites:   5-11  ( 45.5% )  Favorites Win %: 71-161  ( 44.1% )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-49     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 21-49    ( 42.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9417 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9511( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9985 ($17,177.10)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017