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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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Graded Stakes - 10/5 - Keeneland - Grade One Alcibiades
We always like when a horse moves up in the Beyer department for the first try against winners, and that's exactly the case with the #6 INTO TROUBLE. Colebrook charge not only improved about 1.7 points in the "adjusted" Beyer department when stepping into stakes ranks, but did so on a surface that we felt would be about 3.6 points worse, given the breeding ( don't ask how we figure that out ! ). Third different jockey in as many starts is his best one yet, and as the Tomlinson for the distance in the Arlington race was a 381, there is even more chance of an improvement here, given the 403 Tommy for today's trip. We love the versatility shown ( forwardly placed then closed, and dirt then poly ) as well as the fact that he's outrun his odds in both victories. The more we type... #3 RESTLESS RIDER gets a medication change off a strong effort ( which we are fond of, as it signals a trainer's confidence in making an aggressive move ) and this chap simply appears too strong to leave out of the mix, but always beware of babies bouncing in second off the break attempts. #1 REFLECT is 3rd off the L/O today and fired off a bullet breeze right here just six days ago. Graham pretty good at saving ground and wouldn't be surprised to see this one hit the board.
Belmont ( Current ) 23-170 ( $170.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-11 ( 45.5% ) Favorites Win %: 73-170 ( 42.9% )( As of Friday morning )
Saratoga ( Final ) 80-404 ( $865.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 7-40 ( 17.5% ) Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% )
Belmont ( Final ) 88-499 ( $829.00 ) Beatable Favorites 12-39 ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )
Indiana Grand ( Final ): 3-8 ( $12.40 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorites Win %: 4-8 ( 40.0% )
Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138 ( $167.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 6-15 ( 40.0% ) Favorites Win % :61-138 ( 44.2% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317 ( $493.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 4-17 ( 23.5% ) Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )
Graded Stakes ( Final ): 8-48 ( $53.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-3 ( 66.7% ) Favorites Win %: 21-48 ( 43.8% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):
( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337 ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337 ( 33.0% ) +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout
Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68 ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587 ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6% against a 15.6% takeout
Dirt Tracks 2014-8 (All Final):1947-9416 ($16,333.20) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9510( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.3% against a 16.7% takeout
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 2032-9984 ($17,152.40) Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10096( 35.8% )+/-: -14.1% against a 16.6% takeout