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Just a reminder that if you would like today's full card, Belmont selections & analysis, merely go back one page.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 10/5 - Keeneland - Grade One Alcibiades

 

Race  9

1.Into Trouble

2.Restless Rider

3.Reflect

We always like when a horse moves up in the Beyer department for the first try against winners, and that's exactly the case with the #6 INTO TROUBLE. Colebrook charge not only improved about 1.7 points in the "adjusted" Beyer department when stepping into stakes ranks, but did so on a surface that we felt would be about 3.6 points worse, given the breeding ( don't ask how we figure that out ! ). Third different jockey in as many starts is his best one yet, and as the Tomlinson for the distance in the Arlington race was a 381, there is even more chance of an improvement here, given the 403 Tommy for today's trip. We love the versatility shown ( forwardly placed then closed, and dirt then poly ) as well as the fact that he's outrun his odds in both victories. The more we type... #3 RESTLESS RIDER gets a medication change off a strong effort ( which we are fond of, as it signals a trainer's confidence in making an aggressive move ) and this chap simply appears too strong to leave out of the mix, but always beware of babies bouncing in second off the break attempts. #1 REFLECT is 3rd off the L/O today and fired off a bullet breeze right here just six days ago. Graham pretty good at saving ground and wouldn't be surprised to see this one hit the board.

 

Belmont        ( Current )    23-170 ( $170.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   5-11  ( 45.5% )  Favorites Win %: 73-170  ( 42.9% )( As of Friday morning )

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Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                 Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  8-48     ( $53.70 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )   Favorites Win %: 21-48    ( 43.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1947-9416 ($16,333.20) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9510( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2032-9984 ($17,152.40)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10096( 35.8% )+/-: -14.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017