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Another mixed bag for us here on Sunday, as although we only had one winner on top, we did in fact manage to snag three triple boxes ( $494, $19 & $38 ), four exacta boxes ( $168, $21, $8 & $27 ) and three rolling doubles of $133, $10 & $39.

Those who took heed to our select Grade 1 analysis from Santa Anita were rewarded with a $25 winner in the Zenyatta Stakes !!

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #1A Ascender ( only if the #1 is scratched )


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Belmont Park - 10/3

 

Race  1

1.Fifty

2.Pretentious

3.Truly a Moon Shot

#5 FIFTY won the only time he was available for purchase, has gone 2-1-0 in his last triad over a glib surface, and picks up Irad today. All systems go. #2 PRETENTIOUS came rolling along to procure the place money in a nearly identical spot last time out, but as this one is notoriously camera shy, we'll leave underneath today. #6 TRULY A MOON SHOT has done his best work right here ( 5:1-0-3 ) and is 3:1-1-1 when starting from the outermost two slots; back at his proper level this afternoon.

 

Race  2

1.Causforcelebration

2.Chasindamoney

3.Stag of Sylvia

#9 CAUSFORCELEBRATION is slowly approaching professional maiden status, but draws well and Saez 2 for his last 15 after going 0 for his first 15. Mild edge. #8 CHASINDAMONEY will undoubtedly be on the choo choo early on, but it's the last 1/8th that's the real bugaboo. It's obviously his race to lose, but given the successive layoff lines, it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #2 STAG OF SYLVIA has a couple of honest enough adjusted figaros, and goes short on the sod for just the second time. Price addition.  OFF TURF: 1-7-5-3-8

 

Race  3

1.Dark N Cloudy

2.Hot Sriracha

3.Throw the Fade

We won't be going any deeper than these three for all our rolling action.  #5 DARK N CLOUDY took a couple'a months off after a tough trip up north, and Repole ain't giving this one another crack at the special weight level, as the biggest drop in the game is employed today. Johnny returns, and this one draws well in today's compact field. #2 HOT SRIRACHA has nice early zip and is another available for purchase for the first time this afternoon. Fourth different pilot in as many outings takes over, and it's the best pilot to date. #1 THROW THE FADE has closed out the exacta in 4 of 6 over a fast track & is logical once again.  NOTE: AS OF 2:34, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Richie'slilwildcat

2.Catoria

3.First Appeal

#7 RICHIE'SLILWILDCAT has yet to take a spin over the green stuff, but gal owns some nice zip and has done well over the carpet fibers. We like that she's protected against the claim in the first try after the purchase, and that's saying something, as she was off the board that afternoon. Mild selection. #8 CATORIA is another going over the green for the first time, but sometimes, speed is all that matters, and as the turf courses here have been soft and speed favoring, gal poses a big threat if able to shake free early on. #5 FIRST APPEAL is but a nose shy of a 3 for 4 mark over this course, and that unto itself, gives enough reason to include.  OFF TURF: 3-10(MTO)-8-11(MTO)-12(MTO)   NOTE: AS OF 1:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Francis Freud

2.Smake Oil Charlie

3.Peculiar Sensation

#2 FRANCIS FREUD hasn't shown much in the last two, but Abel didn't seem overly enthusiastic in either start, and there's a smart switch by Kerry to a decent looking bug today. We always go back three starts to find something poistive, and the 6/16 event ( adjusted 74 Beyer ) would put this one right in the thick of things --- IF the six year old "horse" ( You hang on to those avocados, buddy ! ) is able to revert to that effort. #1 SNAKE OIL CHARLIE was a game runner up against somewhat weaker in New Jersey a couple'a months back, and did so while finishing in front of a next out winner. Obviously, the overall record leaves a lot to be desired, but there are a couple ( from a speed figure perspective ) honest enough numbers in turf dashes, and as evident with our top choice, this seems like a race ripe for a bomb. #4 PECULIAR SENSATION is 2 for 10 over this course ( 1-17 otherwise ) and is in decent enough form to include.  OFF TURF: 5-7-4-10-11(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 1:20, WHETHER THE TRACK IS FAST OR WET, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 13(MTO)-11(MTO)-2

 

Race  6 

1.Ruvies in Time

2.Alphabetting

3.Royal Nation

#1 RUVIES IN TIME has yet to hit the board, but always breaks well, and takes a substantial drop in class today. Cohen sticks around, and Schosberg ( from a small survey ) is 2 fer 6 when giving his dirt dashers this kind of relief ( 9-1 or less ). The winners came back $5 & $7, and this one may forget to stop. #6 ALPHABETTING took the overland route when switching surfaces in last and is eligible to improve with the blinker addition. #9 ROYAL NATION is another having the hood affixed for the first time here, and faded after displaying some early hoof in the overture, faded in that heat ( where the place horse returned to win a stakes at the Lakes ). Draws well.  NOTE: AS OF 1:27, IF THE TRACK IS WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-1-6.

 

Race  7

1.Convivial

2.Pocket Player

3.Three Perfections ( AE )

#1 CONVIVIAL is in for a tag for the 1st time today, and Goldberg is 3 fer 6 when doing exactly that to his turf stock at 14-1 or undah ( $4, $8 & $14 ). Mildest of choices in a wide open heat. #5 POCKET PLAYER has been in the money in all four outings in the claiming ranks and should be coming late to do so once again. #11 THREE PERFECTIONS (AE) needs one two get out in order to get in, but should that be the case, will be a strong favorite based on the overall collection of gaudy Beyers.  OFF TURF: 4-6-11(AE)-7-3   NOTE: AS OF 2:57 THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Chiclet's Dream

2.Spring Folly

3.Summer Squeeze ( AE )

#2 CHICLET'S DREAM has been a model of consistency thus far in her career, having yet to miss the board, and under four different sets of circumstances, too. Should sit the coziest of trips beneath Javier. #4 SPRING FOLLY was marooned in the last up at Saratoga, but had a nice triad of outings just before that ( all placings ) and deserves your respect once again. #13 SUMMER SQUEEZE (AE) is on the outside looking in, and although this one hasn't been seen since the spring, the maiden breaker was in fact impressive, ( her first route ) and is a major factor IF able to draw in and IF 100% cranked up.   OFF TURF: 6-4-1A-8-14(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1A ASCENDER ( only if the #1 is scratched )  NOTE: AS OF 2:52, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-2-6.

 

Race  9 

1.Freddymo Factor ( AE )

2.Niko's Dream ( AE )

3.Marquet Legacy

#13 FREDDYMO FACTOR (AE) went for more than 4X the stud fee at auction, will be led over by a piping hot conditioner, and was sired by an hombre who was 4:1-2-0 on the synthetic ( which sometimes translates to the gramma ). Additionally, paternal granddam was 1-3 on the sod, and we'll give this one a tepid nod should she make it over to the races today. #12 NIKO'S DREAM (AE) came along nicely to complete the superfecta in the 'Toga overture, and did so despite going seven wide that day. Chance for improvement. #5 MARQUET LEGACY hasn't shown much in the morning, but is a half to a 1 for 9 turf sprinter ( 61K ), a 1 for 3 dasher on the green ( 50 large ), Too Discreet ( 305, 194G at this dance ), and Discretionary Marq ( won 1/3rd of his nine outings going this trip, banking $163,160 ). Barn is 3-12 w/firsters fitting ALL these exact parameters ( any jock ) with the winners coming back a robust $10, $16 & $23.  OFF TURF: 10-11(AE)-12(AE)-2-3

 

Belmont        ( Current )    20-152 ( $147.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   5-11  ( 45.5% )  Favorites Win %: 68-152  ( 44.7% )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  9-49     ( $78.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 21-49    ( 42.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1948-9417 ($16,357.90) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9511( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2031-9985 ($17,177.10)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10097( 35.7% )+/-: -13.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017