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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s):


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Belmont Park - 9/26

 

Race  1

1.Cause We Are Loyal

2.Rachel's Blue Moon 

3.Take Charge Aubrey

#3 CAUSE WE ARE LOYAL has been befallen by a bunch of layoff lines, but has a boatload of back class and goes two turns to one for the first time this afternoon. Meeeeek selection in a wide open opener. #2 RACHEL'S BLUE MOON won the last time she took a spin over this strip, and did so beneath today's pilot as well. Another on the cutback. #4 TAKE CHARGE AUBREY has gone 49-63-69-86 in all her one turn outings to date, so who really knows where her ceiling is in this regards. Gal digs this joint. 

 

Race  2

1.Molly's Nighthawk

2.Reconsider It

3.Unparalleled

#2 MOLLY'S NIGHTHAWK has ascended the Beyer ladder with each passing turf route, and sheds nine pounds today for a rider beginning his career right here. Best effort came off he bench, and there should be some good value offered here. #3 RECONSIDER IT is rapidly approaching "professional maiden" status, but still has to be factored into the equation because of the collection of speed figures earned. #1 UNPARALLELED will be led over by a frigid conditioner, but is up for sale for just the second time today ( and the first time over firm ground ).  OFF TURF: 9-6-2-7-1  NOTE: AS OF 1:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race   3

1.It's Two Hot Benny

2.Blissful Breeze

3.Blue Atlas

#5 IT'S TWO HOT BENNY showed little in the most recent foray, but had been away for more than a year prior to that, and accomplished a few good things prior to that. Franco returns today and we'll give this one a tepid nod in a race with not much to be desired. #3 BLISSFUL BREEZE is 1 for 2 locally, 1 for 1 @ the trip, and 23% Stone won Sunday's turf feature on a bomb. #4 BLUE ATLAS has won both starts over this course, and that alone is worthy of inclusion.  OFF TURF:6-7-8-2-1

 

Race  4 

1.Jordy's Ready

2.Brooklyn Gerty

3.Golden Vale

#1 JORDY'S READY has partaken in the triple in all four starts on the dirt, and we'll be using because of that consistency -- not for any specific reason, but just that. #6 BROOKLYN GERTY is a five year old maiden with three lifetime starts who is once again dropped to her lowest level to date. There's a little bit of speed here, and Castellano gets legged up. #2 GOLDEN VALE is another steady sort who posted a decent numero in the most call to action, and is as good as any for third. 

 

Race  5 

1.Fuel the Bern

2.Mohican

3.Rappel

#2 FUEL THE BERN has been 1-2-3 in three straight, owns a 3:1-1-1 ledger at this locale, and closed out the superfecta in the lone 2X to 1X turf attempt. Sensible selection. #3 MOHICAN is about 10% better on the turf than the dirt, and the recent try on the sand was his best one yet. Cohen returns here, and he was aboard for the last score as well. #1 RAPPEL may save all the ground moving in to the rail, and slide along for a piece of the pie.  OFF TURF: 1-7(MTO)-6(MTO)-9-3

 

Race  6

1.Bitumen 

2.Imperatore

3.Forge

#1 BITUMEN is a consistent performer who's made the super in seven straight, and 11% Duggan is 5-16 with mid level dirt stock who hit the board in last ( $9, $15, $45, #5 & $14 ). Colt is 2 for 5 when starting from the innermost two slots, compared to owning a 2-17 mark from the 3 hole on out ( some horses simply prefer running covered up ). #6 IMPERATORE has been claimed in three straight and 5 of 6 when eligible, and why not, as this one always gives a good account of himself. Pre-claim pilot returns, which we always dig, and gelding scored in his only turn right here. #2 FORGE ( second half of the uncoupled entry with the one directly above ) has blinks added in the first start off the claim for a new conditioner who's had some success with limited starters. Curious drop here, tho.  NOTE: AS OF 1:43, IF THE TRACK IS STILL LABELED "GOOD", THEN OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-1-2.

 

Race  7 

1.Phone Funky Monkey

2.Malibu Strings

3.Andronikos

#5 PHONE FUNKY MONKEY hasn't shown much of late, but cuts back on the gramma for the first time here and could perk up a bit at a solid offering. #6 MALIBU STRINGS udergoes a few changes in the first start for Kantarmaci in this spot: Two turns to one, brown to green, new pilot, and first time over this particular surface. Would only need to find one of those agreeable to make an impression vs. these. #9 ANDRONIKOS is 1 for 2 in turf sprints ( both right here ) and may last for a share back in for a tag today.  OFF TURF: 7-8-9-2-6  NOTE: AS OF 1:51, IF THE TRACK IS "FAST", THEN OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-4-7.

 

Race  8

1.Something Joyful

2.Shanghai Dreams

3.Hollywood Cat 

#5 SOMETHING JOYFUL was visually impressive when getting the diploma off nearly a full calendar layoff, and did so over this course. Logical once again. #1 SHANGHAI DREAMS went coast to coast in an off the turf event 200 miles northward on "Bijou Day", and ended up in a new barn for all her efforts afterwards. While one can surmise that there's ample reasoning for a regression today ( that was first time Lasix, first time dirt, off the bench, etc. ), keep in mind that the turf debut without the wonder drug wasn't half bad, and this one is now protected against another purchase. #5 HOLLYWOOD CAT showed little in the latest but hey, dirt probably ain't this one's deal, ya know? Filly has a 1-0-1-1 mark from as many starts on the Inner, and the stock goes up if the front wraps come off.  OFF TURF: 1-6-12-13(AE)-14  NOTE: AS OF 1:53, IF THE TRACK IS "FAST", THEN OUR SELECIONS WILL BE 15-2-3, AND IF IT IS "WET", THEN THE #15 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Garsoon

2.Uncle Larry 

3.Gravitating

#3 GARSOON ( "Garson means boy." -- Pulp Fiction )  has only beaten one home in three starts, but has yet to have a clean onset, and start on the dirt for the first time, which is a bit relevant. This one's a half to a 1 for 6 dirt dasher, and was sired by a runner who was 1 for 2 at this dance. Gelding is second clear of a layoff line, second time blinkers, and this race just has the aura of upset possibilities. #9 UNCLE LARRY finds himself at his lowest level to date, and improved noticeably in the lone try when going from green to brown. Pletcher ( from a small sampling ) is 2 for 4 when going long to short and turf to dirt with his maiden claiming runners right her ( $5 & $10 ); check for a rider change, as Junior got banged up the other day. #7 GRAVITATING ( by 'Astrology'...ya get it ? ) has been purchased the last two times he ran, and Rudy Rod is 4 fer 7 with fresh acquisitions who missed the money at this level 41-83 days back & are 6-1 or less in today's start ( positive return on investment ).  NOTE: AS OF 1:58, IF THE TRACK IS STILL WET, THEN THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont        ( Current )     13-105   ( $89.40 )    Beatable Favorites:    2-6    ( 33.3% )   Favorites Win %: 46-105    ( 43.8% ) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  8-48     ( $53.70 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 21-48    ( 43.8% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-337   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 111-337  ( 33.0% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1947-9416 ($16,333.20) Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3446-9510( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2032-9984 ($17,152.40)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3609-10096( 35.8% )+/-: -14.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017