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Check the jockey changes for today, as Junior too a nasty spill yesterday.

Just a reminder that to can also get our selections & analysis for the Grade 1's Cotillion and Pennsylvania Derby from Philadelphia Park just by going back one page.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #3 Cross Multiply


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Belmont Park - 9/22

 

Race  1

1.Gearhead

2.One Mission

3.Junkanoo

We're really digging the prospects of the #5 GEARHEAD in the day's opener. Forget about the debut up at the Spa, as he got smacked around a bit in that off the turf event, and was most likely given a bit of experience that day. Riddle me this -- Would they have entered this one in a turf dash first time out, then sent him long second time if they weren't using that race for some "bottom" ? Why not send him long right away ? Why is Rosario on today ? What's up with that bullet after the last w/no other bullets on display ? Why go to night school ? Why go to college ? Need more ? 15% barn is 6:2-1-0-2 with second time starters/first time routers at this level who missed the board in last ( 60-1 or less ). The winners paid a whopping $38 & $50, the placer was 10-1 & the ones who closed out the superfecta went off at 59-1 & 7-1. This is the first foal out of an unraced dam, but City Zips have been doing quite well on the gramma, and of course, there's Dynaformer downstairs. Play of the day. #4 ONE MISSION & #8 JUNKANOO both are backed by identical DRF Formulator statistics, as Chad Brown is 6 for 9 with firsters fitting ALL this exact criteria ( 5-1 or less ). The difference between the two is that he's 3 fer 3 with Javy.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-3-2-8-7

 

Race  2

1.Small Bear

2.Outplay

3.Favorable Outcome

#1 SMALL BEAR is 2:1-1-0 lover this strip, 3:1-2-0 when breaking from the innermost two slots, and Sciacca ( 8% day to day ) is 3 for 8 with locally based optional dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta 18-30 days ago & are 9-1 or less ( $9, $18 & $13 ). Dylan heating up a bit, and as this is 1 of 2 cross entered in Philadelphia today, we recommend you check the changes. #4 OUTPLAY ( 1 for 2 in second start off the layoff attempts & 1-2 @ the trip ) is up for sale for the first time this afternoon. #2 FAVORABLE OUTCOME completed the exacta in the lone "3rd off the L/O" try while having hit the board in 3 of 4 at Elmont.

 

Race   3

1.Teryn It Up

2.Course Correction

3.Mini P ( Ire )

#5 TERYN IT UP is a steady sort who is ( presumably ) back on firm ground today and gets off the rail as well. Mild choice. #2 COURSE CORRECTION has burned a bit of bread so far, but is a deserving favorite for today's second off the layoff/second try over firm going attempt. #7 MINI P (IRE) was ambitiously spotted in a Grade 3 at Royal Ascot after a 2nd place finish first time out, and after a disastrous result, has been shipped to the States, where the usual makeup ensues ( FTL/Drop in weight ). Logical here, given the breeding, and Clement ain't tipping his hand, with only one ( mandatory ) work on display. Belongs.  OFF TURF: 2-1-6-4-7

 

Race  4 

1.Dream Awhile

2.Uni ( GB )

3.Hawksmoor ( Ire )

These three and no more for all our rolling action in the Noble Damsel...  #3 DREAM AWHILE has missed the board but one time in her 11 race career, and recently finished a neck behind a next out winner down in Jersey. As a matter of fact, five runners from that heat came back to go 5:2-1-1-1 next time out ( from three different races ) with average Beyer improvement of 3.2 points. #2 UNI (GB) went from zero to hero to get the job done in 'Toga on 8/4, but has been carefully spotted by Brown so far this year, so you should be careful, too. #4 HAWKSMOOR (IRE) is a classy sort, but has been nibbling over her last sextet, so we'll leave beneath.  OFF TURF: 2-4-5-3-6

 

Race  5

1.Devilry

2.Magnetron

3.Flat Out Jayvien

#2 DEVILRY ( "THE DEVILLLLLLLLS !!!" ) hasn't displayed much to date, but undergoes a legit trainer change today, and Cox ( dig it ) is 7:4-1-1 when being handed a new runner & spotting them in a maiden claiming dirt dash off a hibernation of 160-440 days within this odds range ( $9, $4, $10 & $14 ). #6 MAGNETRON is 3rd off the shelf today, and 10% clan is 6:2-1-1-1 when going green to brown & long to short with those off sabbaticals of 22-44 days ( $4 & $35 ). #7 FLAT OUT JAYVIEN ( cross entered Thursday ) is 2nd off the bench and even though there's but one decent running line in the P.P.'s, with maidens, that's all we need to include.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 CROSS MULTIPLY will be led over by a conditioner who's 1-11 in all pertinent categories. 

 

Race  6 

1.Poshsky

2.Canarsie Kid

3.Blackjack Baby

#8 POSHSKY was visually impressive when winning in an off the turf event 23 days ago, and historically speaking, this one is about 10% better on the sod. Love the 52:12-6-4 career mark. #9 CANARSIE KID employed a change of tactics in last when rating a bit, and fought the good fight when closing out the triple despite going six wide. The winner from that day came back to get the job done once again, and this one deserves some respect. #6 BLACKJACK BABY rounds things out.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-6-7-11-9

 

Race  7

1.Wine Not

2.Lazarus Project

3.Have Another

#1 WINE NOT really digs it here ( 2 for 7, in comparison to being 1-14 otherwise ), and owns a score & a showing from as many starts when going from two turns to one. From a small sampling, 15% Weaver is 2-4 ( $8 & $19 )  when giving his allowance stock this kind of cutback off breaks of 22-44 days  at 17-1 or lower ( OTB in last ). #5 LAZARUS PROJECT is a bit of a nibbler by rote ( 23:3-3-11 on the sand ) and has also hit the board in 2 of 3 right here. Sensible "unders" selection. #4 HAVE ANOTHER is another steady sort ( ITM in 8 of 10 ) and is but a length & a half shy of a poyfect 3 for 3 ledger right here.

 

Race  8 

1.Battle of Midway

2.Timeline

3.Still Having Fun

Grade 2 Kelso is on tap here, and for some history on the sensational Hall of Famer, feel free to click on this site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelso_(horse) ... #1 BATTLE OF MIDWAY has been alternating wins and losses over his last septet, so today should be a score, right ? If only the game was that simple ! Hollendorfer charge has the type of "declining" record that we've grown to love ( 11:5-3-2 ) and The Master is an amazing 14:8-4-1- with second off the layoff graded dirt dashers at 9-2 or less ( positive ROI ). What makes this stat all the more impressive is that it came with eight DIFFERENT winners ! #2 TIMELINE is 5 for 10 lifetime & 2 fer 3 at this locale; may end up being better suited for one turn down the road. #5 STILL HAVING FUN ( one of two signed on who were also entered in Philadelphia today, so take a peek at the scratches ) won the Woody Stephens here back in June, and is 2nd off a break here. 

 

Race  9 

1.Animauxselle 

2.Alley to Calvary 

3.Sweet August Lady

#5 ANIMAUXSELLE leaves the blinkers in the barn after two straight subpar efforts, but if you can discount the start over yielding ground, then what you have is an adjusted 72.5 right here against stiffer competition. Yeah, I know she's a chronic fringe player, but we are getting 15-1 here.  #1 SWEET AUGUST LADY is a $250K auction purchase who is available for less than 1/6th of that price today; obvious inclusion. #4 ALLEY TO CALVARY didn't show much in the lone turf dash, but we always give a runner two shots at a deal before writing them off. Maragh is starving these days, so at least you know he'll be trying for the minor spoils.  OFF TURF: 11-10-1-7-3

 

Race  10

1.Smart Throb 

2.Nazay

3.Truly Courageous

#9 SMART THROB can be forgiven the last ( off the gramma ), but had ascended the Beyer scale just prior to that and would be no surprise at double digit odds. #10 NAZAY is a bit of an in and outer, but has been in the top three turning for home in his last handful, and sometimes that's all you need in a race such as this. #13 TRULY COURAGEOUS has gotten better and better with each passing start, and Reyes ( an excellent "send" jockey ) will endeavor to do the killer crossover from the onset. It's the last 1/16th that has us nervous, though.  OFF TURF: 1(AE)-8-3-2-4

  


Belmont        ( Current )     13-85   ( $89.40 )    Beatable Favorites:    2-5    ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win %: 36-85    ( 42.4% )( As of Saturday morning ) 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8         ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  8-46     ( $53.70 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 20-46    ( 43.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-335   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-335  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1947-9414 ($16,333.20)  Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3445-9508( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2032-9982 ($17,152.40)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3608-10094( 35.8% )+/-: -14.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017