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Off the schneid with two profitable winners on Sunday ( $38 late Daily Double ), as with less favorites coming in ( two ), we manage to do a bit better. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #1 Barahin  Race 4 - #1 Ascender ( Only if the other half of the entry is scratched )  Race 6 - #2 Pagliacci


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Belmont Park - 9/19

 

Race  1

1.Dancingwthdaffodls

2.Reconsider It

3.Sardonyx

#4 DANCINGWITHDAFFODLS somehow managed to go seven wide in a five horse field last out ( say what ?? ), and ended up burning a bit of money when finishing second at this very same level. The good news though, is that 10% Brown is a crisp 3 for 6 with maiden claiming turf stayers right here at 20-1 or less ( 27-50 days ). Cohen being off the duck helps matters as well. #1 RECONSIDER IT has hit the board in 3 of 4 when breaking from the innermost three slots ( just 2 of 12 otherwise ) and was a sharp runner up the last time she went two turns. #3 SARDONYX rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 7-6(MTO)-8-4-12(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 1:11, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING "FAST", OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 12-4-6.

 

Race  2

1.Full of Hope

2.Flatexcel

3.Go Big Or Go Home

#2 FULL OF HOPE showed zippo down in the crabcake state, but finds himself at his lowest level to date this afternoon, and Nevin ( 20% day to day ) is 30% ( 10-33 ) with runners fitting this criteria who missed the board 27-55 days ago. #4 FLATEXCEL has lost ground in the lane in 11 of 12 lifetime starts, but you have to respect the speed, and Toscano ( 12% when brushing his teeth in the morning ) is 10 fer 30 ( 33.3333333% ) w/ mid level dirt stock right here who were ITM 16-32 days ago ( $2.70 ROI ). #6 GO BIG OR GO HOME has essentially been an in and outer his entire career, so we'll permit him a chance to rebound today.

 

Race  3

1.Wisdom an War

2.Tiz Morning

3.Our American Star

#4 WISDOM AN WAR was a solid runner up in an off the bench start at Indiana 25 days back, and Moquett owns a 3-10 ledger with second off the layoff maiden special weight dirt dashers who crashed the party last time out. The winners came back $8, $6 & $13, and sizzling Javy takes the assignment. #2 TIZ MORNING posted an adjusted 67.8 in the comebacker, and given the high figure earned when debuting, we'd say there's some room for improvement today. #5 OUR AMERICAN STAR has hit the board in 8 of 10, and we have no problem with spotting him in the top three once again.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 BARAHIN fills the bill as McL. is 1-12 in all pertinent areas.

 

Race  4 

1.Hollywood Cat

2.Danielle's Pride

3.Codrington

#7 HOLLYWOOD CAT has been a mite disappointing in the last two, but one was an off the turf event, and the other was over yielding ground. That being said, the two prior routes over firm ground just before that yielded a length loss placing as well as a win ( over this course ). Barn ( from a small sampling ) is 3-7 with runners fitting all this criteria ( < 2 months ) at under 12-1 ( $5, $5 & $9 ). Irad sticks around, and the stock goes up if the front wraps come off. #4 DANIELLE'S PRIDE is a bit light from a speed figure perspective, but honk if you like Donk doubling his normative 10% clip with locally based allowance turf stayers off sabbaticals of 55 days or lower ( 20-1 or < ). The winners returned $8, $23, $5 7 $10, and this one could spice things up a bit. #5 CODRINGTON has hung up three successive "firm turf Beyers" and must be factored into the equation.  OFF TURF: 2-1A-6(MTO)-9-10  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 ASCENDER doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism ? ( Only if the other half of the entry is scratched. )  NOTE: AS OF 1:13, DUE TO THE TRCK BEING FAST, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Steam Engine

2.Strive for a Cure

3.Bettor Bank On It

#1 STEAM ENGINE was a well defeated, but well clear, runner up first time out of the box 200 miles northward a month back, and 374 Tomlinson figure tells us that the result was no aberration. Will need to be send, send, sending from today's inside slot. #2 STRIVE FOR A CURE has been working moderately for today's career starter, and ain't facing much here. #4 BETTOR BANK ON IT lost by less than three first time out, and may fare even better wuth the surface switch.

 

Race  6 

1.Corot

2.Thunder's Honor

3.Bourbon Currency

#8 COROT drops in class for today's second off the break foray, and Morley ( from an itty bitty sampling ) is 2 for 4 when cutting back his 2nd off the shelf allowance turf runners  who missed the $ last out ( 28-1 or undah ). The mutuels were $7 & $15, and Castellano is still around. #5 THUNDER'S HONOR closed out the exacta in the lone try when second off the L/O, and given the form just before the break, is a major factor if sound. #3 BOURBON CURRENCY as good as any for the show bread.  OFF TURF: 5-2-6(MTO)-7-1  BEATABLE FAVORITE: If you play the #2 PAGLIACCI, you may end up being a clown with a frown afterwards, as Mott is 0-14 with allowance turf sprinters right here off L/O's of 38 days or less. NOTE: AS OF 1:15, DUE TO THE RACK BEING FAST, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-1-3.

 

Race  7

1.Hills Pond

2.The Queens Jules

3.Baseline

We don't have a very good read on this race, so tread lightly... #4 HILLS POND has been fading in routes, so goes short on the sod for the first time today. Two best lifetime performances came beneath Jersey Joe, and this one has two wins & a 3rd from his last three attempts at this level or lower. #5 THE QUEENS JULES has yet to miss the superfecta, and ( presumably ) catches firm ground in a turf dash for the 1st time here. Johnny V. picking his spots nicely at the stand, as his 8 for 20 mark belies. #8 BASELINE closes out the triple.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-3-2-7(MTO)-8  NOTE: AS OF 1:17, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING FAST, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 13-9-2.

 

Race  8 

1.She's Trouble

2.Cartwheelin Lulu

3.Party Like Grandma

Featured race of the day is the Joe Gimma Stakes, but it may as well be the "Jeremiah Englehart Jammie", as 'Miah has half of the six pack here. Despite his abundance of entrants, we'll side with the #3 SHE'S TROUBLE. Rice charge has an overall decent body of work, and barn owns a sensational 8 for 11 mark with local dirt sprinters at this level off breaks of 22-33 days ( 10-1 or lower ) with a whopping ROI of $5.52. #7 CARTWHEELIN LULU positively whistled up at the Lakes a month back, and not only has she fired a bullet since, but the runner up from that day returned to score next time out. Johnny picks up the mount for a conditioner who's 6:3-2-0 with second timers in ungraded dirt deals ( 7-1 or under ), and January bred has a maturity advantage over the entire lot. #5 PARTY LIKE GRANDMA has gone coast to coast like butter and toast in both calls to post, and filly who was purchased for just $8,000 at auction can hit the $210,000 mark with a win here .

 

Race  9 

1.Chutzpah

2.Zecha

3.Wild With Style

#2 CHUTZPAH apparently bled at the quarter mile marker in the most recent, as that's the precise moment where she began to breakdance, but Lasix is part of the package today, and the biggest drop in the game is in store as well. Jockey switch to Stone now, and that's fine by us, as he had a triple on Sunday. #5 ZECHA got leggy late in the game up at The Spa, and ended up a well clear runner up in a nearly identical spot. Logical once again. #1 WILD WITH STYLE hasn't shown a dram of promise in nearly two years, but with maidens ( especially a bunch such as this ) we permit ourselves to look anywhere in their P.P.'s, as they're winless for a reason, ya know? Two best figures came from the pine, so.....  NOTE: AS OF 1:21, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-5-7.

 


Belmont        ( Current )     10-56   ( $66.10 )    Beatable Favorites:    0-3  ( 0% )      Favorites Win %: 26-56     ( 46.4% )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  8-46     ( $53.70 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )    Favorites Win %: 20-46    ( 43.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 54-335   ( $473.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-335  ( 32.8% )  +/-: -29.2% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1947-9414 ($16,333.20)  Beatable Favorites : 286-1026( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3445-9508( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2032-9982 ($17,152.40)  Beatable Favorites : 301-1094( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %:3608-10094( 35.8% )+/-: -14.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017