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Have a great and SAFE Travers Day, everyone !! 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Saratoga - 8/25 - Travers Day

 

Race  1

1.Puttheglassdown

2.Classy John

3.Mischievous Bird 

#5 PUTTHEGLASSDOWN has the best Beyer figure from the two who have started and owns the best Tomlinson for the distance. Down the lane. #3 CLASSY JOHN has been positively sizzling in the mornings, including a bullet gate breeze, which is always an automatic inclusion for us. #2 MISCHIEVOUS  BIRD is another who's been faring well in the A.M., but we'll leave beneath as the pilot has but 1 1/2 wins on the stand. 

 

Race  2

1.Blame the Thief

2.Way Early

3.Collective Effort 

#3 BLAME THE THIEF posted an adjusted 83.5 in the lone try over this strip, and although he finished 7th that day, the margin of defeat was less than three. Hills has removed this one's procreating abilities since the last, so you know this one'll be ticked off ( it would bug me, that's for sure ), and we like that Double-D gives his all -- regardless of the odds. #4 WAY EARLY gets tremendous class relief this afternoon, and is a deserving favorite. #5 COLLECTIVE  EFFORT is as consistent as they come, having yet to miss a superfecta, and comes off a triad of career best numeros.  OFF TURF: 4-5-1-8-13(MTO)

 

Race   3

1.Cerretalto

2.Souper Catch

3.Tommy T 

There are three decent DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em...  #7 CERRETALTO: Bond ( 14% day to day ) is 2-6 with those going short on the sand at this level coming back off hibernations of 102-306 days ( 20-1 or lower ) and has a couple'a nice payoffs of $18 & $26 in that regards. #4 SOUPER CATCH: Casse doubles his normative 18% batting average with runners of this ilk off breaks of 71-141 days, w/payoffs of $11, $5 & $7. #1 TOMMY T: 9% Barbara is 3 for 7 with with allowance dirt sprinters who hit the board in last & are 9-2 or less today ( $8, $9 & $11 ). NOTE: As of 8:59 P.M. Friday, we have corrected the names of our first two selections and the trainers.  NOTE: AS OF 10:25, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Digital Footprint

2.Social Paranoia

3.Noble Nebraskan ( AE )

Chad Brown is a near perfect 7:6-1-0 with second timers fitting these parameters who were 1-2-3 right outta the box. The ROI for that sampling is $5.05, and #3 DIGITAL FOOTPRINT is looking powerful. #7 SOCIAL PARANOIA has been immolating baccala so far, but we'll permit another shot, as the 4-1 M.L. offering is decent enough when you consider that The Toddster is 2 for 5 when stretching out mdspwt. stock for the first time while giving them their initial spin on the sod ( ITM 26-78 days ago ), w/parimutuels of $9 & $13. #14 NOBLE NEBRASKAN (AE) needs some luck to merely make it over to the races today, but January bred yields nothing in the maturity department to the rest of the field, and barn has popped with local runners of this type in the past.  OFF TURF: 6-9-7-10-15(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 10:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race   5

1.Tathqeef

2.Classic Covey

3.Markitoff

#1 TATHQEEF hasn't seen the scene since last fall, but owns a placing and showing from as many starts off the shelf, and McL. has won with half of his eight starters at this level and on this surface off elongated breaks of 194-388 days ( $11, $4, $10 & $3 ). Stock goes up if the front wraps are removed. #5 CLASSIC COVEY is a steady if unspectacular sort who is backed by a minute 2 for 3 DRF stat which has Mott doing just that with Saratoga runners fitting these parameters at 8-2 or undah. #6 MARKITOFF closes out the tri.  OFF TURF: 9-8-1-4-5

 

Race  6 

1.Gidu ( IRE )

2.Still Having Fun

3.Funny Duck

Forget about the Kentucky Derby --- you can forget about the Breeders' Cup Classic, too --- for us, THIS is it. This is our favorite race. The King's Bishop. Yes, I know, it has been renamed the H.A. Jerkens ( who trained King's Bishop ), and we love that they honored him in this way. But there were so many Travers Eve nights where my buddy Gerard and I would dope this race out in The Parting Glass, that I always hearken back to the old moniker. It's always been a handicappers race, and this year is no exception...  You know, when you use the DRF Formulator platform long enough, certain trainer platforms just pop off the page. We have just that with Pletcher and the #6 GIDU (IRE). Grey colt has been racing exclusively on the lawn and with excellent success as well. Pedigree tells us today's surface switch should be of no problem, and over the last 1,826 days, T.P. wipes 'em clean when going green to brown & long to short with local stock at 12-1 or less being ridden by Johnny. He's 13:5-2-1 in that regards w/a $2.09 ROI. #7 STILL HAVING FUN is but a neck shy of a 3 fer 3 mark at this tricky distance, and closers have done VERY well in this race through the years. #9 FUNNY DUCK got the job done in his lone 2X to 1X attempt, but really needs to shake off the last two outings.  Oh yeah, by the way, here's one of our all time favorite horses winning this race in 2005. The great, Lost In The Fog.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PmgkAFKG7I .

 

Race  7

1.Farrell

2.Abel Tsman

3.Elate

Grade 1 Personal Ensign coming up, and we've enclosed footage of the great mare winning the Whitney up here 30 years ago ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ7_XO7CrSc  . #5 FARRELL was given a masterful ride when going all the way in the Shuvee, besting a highly talked about Wow Cat in the process. As there ain't much other proven two turn speed in here, who says it can't happen again and give a late birthday gift for good guy Channing Hill. #1 ABEL TASMAN won her only start here, but is 0 for 3 in "true" layoff tries and has never broken from the inside; mixed signals, so we'll leave beneath. #6 ELATE won her only outing when starting from the outside, but lost in the lone foray off the shelf, and has never toted 123 pounds before, while owning an 0-3 ledger when toting 121 lbs. Another we have mixed signals on but are including because of the back class. 

 

Race  8 

1.Union Strike

2.Lewis Bay

3.Marley's Freedom

Another G1 going 7/8th's. To quote Val Kilmer as 'Doc Holliday', "That's just my game." !  #8 UNION STRIKE has been transferred over to The As-Man since his last, as apparently, Mick Ruis realized he wasn't as good of a trainer as he thought he was ( 4% ), and barn has fashioned a fine meet for themselves, especially with this pilot. Filly got the job done in her only dirt dash off a break, and has never been in this light ( while noting that she's a neck shy of being 2 for 2 carrying 118 ). #6 LEWIS BAY has hit the board in 14 of 15 lifetime and is backed by a ( small ) trainer stat, as Brown is 2 for 5 with graded dirt sprinters right here off sabbaticals of 39-117 days. #7 MARLEY'S FREEDOM shoots for the grand salami today and must be tossed into the hopper. 

 

Race  9 

1.No Dozing

2.City of Light

3.Limousine Liberal 

#5 NO DOZING ( out of "Stay Awake"...dig it ) got the all important win over the track in the comebacker, and Delacour is a groovy 7:4-1-1 with graded dirt dashers who scored 21-48 days back & are 24-1 or lower today ( $11, $3, $4 & $14 ). This one has done some fine work beneath Rosario who often excels on these big days. #8 CITY OF LIGHT has cracked the century mark in his last quartet, and how the hell do you leave an animal like that off your tickets ? #1 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL has that type of "declining" record at the trip that we've grown to love ( 10:5-2-1 ) as it tells us that he knows where the line is. 3 for 3 record when beginning from the pine is nothing to sneeze at, and this is another must use in all your rolling action. 

 

Race  10 

1.Seahenge

2.Revved Up

3.Glorious Empire ( Ire )

Wow what a Sword Dancer we got going here !!  You can reasonably make an excuse for just about anyone signed on ! That being the case, we'll take a look at the longshot, #8 SEAHENGE. Aidan O'Brien charge hasn't shown much on the dirt since getting on U.S. soil, but is 2 fer 5 on the sod, and was a troubled third in a $664,000 Grade 1 in Newmarket last fall. Blinks are removed today, and colt gets in real light. #9 REVVED UP is 2 for 3 right here, with the lone blemish being the debut way back when. Could be boogying late. #1 GLORIOUS EMPIRE (IRE) dead heated for the lion's share in last, and if able to get loose on the lead, to quote Kramer "Could be trouble."  OFF TURF: 4-10-2-5-9

 

Race  11

1.Bravazo

2.Catholic Boy

3.King Zachary

This is the most competitive rendition of The Travers we've ever seen, and we were only able to eliminate one of the eleven signed on. We're not going to tell you who that was of course, as we don't want to run the risk of embarrassment should he ( or she ) win. #4 BRAVAZO came along nicely to procure the place bread at Oceanport, finishing three behind the favorite here, but aside from one of the dozen starts for this one, we've unearthed some nice three race patterns here: 50-65-73...61-89-93...64-91-96...and 91-93 today. The average 2nd to 3rd race improvement in that survey is 5.7 pts., and as there's a dearth of triple digit Beyers in the lot, can't you see a 98.7 winning this race? We're willing to take a shot at 12-1. #11 CATHOLIC BOY has famously re-rallied to win in the last two starts, and that's just not something you see everyday. We like that kind of grittiness, and this one also scored in the lone turf to dirt attempt as well. The bullet breeze 19 days ago points out his affinity for the surface, and Thomas saw enough after that, and has dialed it back a notch in the workout department, as he likely feels he's sitting on a keg of dynamite. Expecting a BIG performance out of this one today. #7 KING ZACHARY was disappointing in the Hoosier state, but that's somewhat understandable, as a career best number preceded it. Another with a local bullet, and 8% rider will likely try for the minor spoils. 

 

Race  12

1.A Raving Beauty ( Ger ) 

2.Proctor's Ledge

3.Hawksmoor ( Ire )

It's the "Chad Brown Ballston Spa Stakes" on tap here, and why not, as he has half of the six equines signed on.  #1 A RAVING BEAUTY (GER) had a slightly troubled trip when missing out on the hat trick in the Diana, but draws snugly today and can definitely make amends. Lone returnee from that day came back to win, replicating the Beyer from the race before. #3 PROCTOR'S LEDGE is another exiting that bumper car event that we just spoke of, and before that deal, this one owned a perfect 2 for 2 mark over this course. Johnny comes back today, and he owns a 2:1-1-0 mark when paired with this gal, and could be coming late. #4 HAWKSMOOR (IRE) completes the Bratwurst/Apple Pie/Soda Bread tri based on the tremendous switch in the jockey department and the speed she has shown.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-4-5

 

Race  13 

1.Azzedine ( Fr )

2.Wisely

3.End of an Era

Closing race on the looooooooong day is upon us, and once again, I want to impress upon you the need to walk or take a cab if you've been imbibing at the track. It's NEVER good to drink and drive, especially up here. Remember, if you can bet our losers, you can afford an Uber !  There are three decent trainer stats in play here, so let's do it in no frills fashion, as I'm plum tuckered !  #5 AZZEDINE (FR): 26% shotcaller is a nifty 6 for 10 with runners fitting all this exact criteria who were off the board < 73 days back & are 4-1 or lower today ( positive ROI ). #2 WISELY: Hennig ( 13% when brushing his choppers in the morning ) owns a 14:5-1-3 mark with maiden claiming turf stayers who crashed the fiesta 21-41 days ago & are 10-1 or less ( $23, $8, $7, $9 & $9 ). #7 END OF AN ERA: Liz Voss won the only time she added blinkers to a runner under 30-1 ( $7 ).  As a rare bonus for ya, we'll tell you to include the #11 in all your rolling action.  OFF TURF: 3-2-7-12-11

 


Saratoga       ( Current )   64-308   ( $691.90 )   Beatable Favorites:   7-37  ( 18.9% )  Favorites Win %: 109-308 ( 36.0% )( As of Saturday morning )

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 Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )     Beatable Favorites  12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

 Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

 Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

 Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

 Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  7-45     ( $46.00 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3    ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 20-45    ( 44.4% )


 All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

 ( 2014-2018 Final ): 53-334   ( $466.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 110-334  ( 32.9% )  +/-: -30.2% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1906-9009 ($15,460.20) Beatable Favorites : 279-986( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 3303-9103( 36.3% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1991-9577 ($16,279.40) Beatable Favorites : 295-1056( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 3465-9692( 35.8% )+/-: -14.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017